Mr. Crimson True-Ratings, Week 12

I love most ranking systems these days (especially Bill Connelly's and the Football Outsiders guys). I love finding meaning in all the numbers and statistics that pervade the world of college football, how your on-field performance can be studied regardless of how many points are put on the board or who puts them there. I love it! But I longed for a set of statistics and polls that used numbers in a way that could historically quantified. I wanted to see a number-based, math-based reasoning behind whether Princeton or Yale should win the national championship in 1884 (the answer based on my math: Yale), how much of a point difference should be considered a dominant performance (I say 35) and how many points should be considered "just piling it on?" (I say any points over 70 is just kinda ridiculous and unnecessary). So, I came up with a really simple way to figure this kinda stuff out. Something that used only the scores at the end of the game, thus allowing me to go back and look at the scores and see whether Michigan or Princeton deserves the national championship in 1903 or who should get it in 1966? Alabama, Michigan State, or Notre Dame? I don't like sharing or being left out in the cold because of "popular opinion".

So, I came up with this: point based ratios. 1-4 pts per game on how dominant the point spread in that game (4 if 35+, 1 if a touchdown or less). 1-7 pts per game on how dominant your opponents have been (1 for an FCS squad, 7 for a top team like Alabama, but all opponent points based on how DOMINANT they are, not where they rank in the polls). A team's dominance determines their competitions SOS. And a team's average point total is the average of their dominance couple with their opponent's average dominance. Which is how you get, after 12 weeks, the following Top 124.

1) ALABAMA (10-1); dominance: 68%, SOS: 60%; avg point total: 64.

2) NOTRE DAME (11-0); dominance: 52%, SOS: 71%; avg point total: 61.

3) OREGON (10-1); dominance: 70%, SOS: 49%; avg point total: 59.

4) OHIO STATE (11-0); dominance: 47%, SOS: 63%; avg point total: 55.

5) FSU* (10-1); dominance: 65%, SOS: 44%; avg point total: 54. (won head-to-head with Clemson).

6) CLEMSON* (10-1); dominance: 56%, SOS: 53%; avg point total: 54.

note: I like whole numbers, so I round down. Also, in the event of a tie, I give it the team with the higher SOS unless there's a winner in a head-to-head matchup. Also also, if the #2 team statistically beats the #1 team statistically, then I go with the winner of the head-to-head matchup despite the loser being superior. Winning means the most.

7) GEORGIA (10-1); dominance: 59%, SOS: 48%; avg point total: 53.

8) KANSAS STATE (10-1); dominance: 52%, SOS: 50%; avg point total: 51.

9) FLORIDA (10-1); dominance: 43%, SOS: 55%; avg point total: 49.

10) TEXAS A&M (9-2); dominance: 52%, SOS: 45%; avg point total: 48.

11) NORTHERN ILLINOIS (10-1); dominance: 52%, SOS: 38%; avg. point total: 45.

12) OKLAHOMA (8-2); dominance: 47%, SOS: 41%; avg point total: 44.

13) KENT STATE (10-1); dominance: 36%, SOS: 51%; avg point total: 43.

14) RUTGERS (9-1); dominance: 45%, SOS: 41%; avg point total: 43.

15) LSU (9-2); dominance: 38%, SOS: 46; avg point total: 42. (won head-to-head with South Carolina)

16) SOUTH CAROLINA (9-2); dominance: 45%, SOS: 41%; avg point total: 43.

17) STANFORD (9-2); dominance: 34%, SOS: 45%; avg point total: 39.

18) UTAH STATE (9-2); dominance: 43%, SOS: 35%; avg point total: 39. (won head-to-head with Louisiana Tech)

19) LOUISIANA TECH (9-2); dominance: 43%, SOS: 35%; avg point total: 39.

20) BOISE STATE (9-2); dominance: 47%, SOS: 32%; avg point total: 39.

21) OREGON STATE (8-2); dominance: 35%, SOS: 41% avg point total: 38. (won head-to-head with UCLA)

23) NEBRASKA (9-2); dominance: 36%, SOS: 41% avg point total: 38.

24)LOUISVILLE (9-1); dominance: 32%, SOS: 41% avg point total: 36.(better record than Texas).

25) TEXAS (8-2); dominance: 32%, SOS: 41% avg point total: 36.

26) FRESNO STATE (8-3): 34.

27) MICHIGAN (8-3): 33.

28) OKLAHOMA STATE (7-3): 33.

29) SAN JOSE STATE (9-2): 32.

30) TULSA (9-2): 32.

31) CINCINNATI (7-3): 31.

32) MISSISSIPPI STATE (8-3): 30. (4 pts to 3 pts against similar competition with Arkansas State).

33) ARKANSAS STATE (8-3): 30.

34) SAN DIEGO STATE (8-3): 29. (worst loss at Washington better than Central Florida's worst loss to Missouri).

35) CENTRAL FLORIDA (8-3): 29.

36) NORTHWESTERN (8-3): 28.

37) TOLEDO (8-3): 27.

38) SOUTHERN CAL (7-4): 27.

39) PENN STATE (7-4): 26.

40) WISCONSIN (7-4): 25.

41) NORTH CAROLINA (7-4): 25.

42) BALL STATE (8-3): 23.

43) ARIZONA (7-4): 22.

44) OHIO (8-3): 21.

45) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (7-3): 20.

46) TEXAS TECH (7-4): 20.

47) VANDERBILT (7-4): 20.

48) LOUISIANA-MONROE (7-4): 19.

49) BOWLING GREEN (7-4): 18.

50) BRIGHAM YOUNG (6-5): 17.

51) NAVY (7-4): 16.

52) WASHINGTON (7-4): 16.

53) TEXAS CHRISTIAN (6-4): 15.

54) GEORGIA TECH (6-5): 15.

55) LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (6-4): 13.

57) ARIZONA STATE (6-5): 12.

58) SYRACUSE (6-5): 11.

59) IOWA STATE (6-5): 10.

60) BAYLOR (5-5): 10.

61) MIAMI (6-5): 8.

62) EAST CAROLINA (7-4): 7.

63) NORTH CAROLINA STATE (6-5): 7.

64) WESTERN KENTUCKY (6-5): 7.

65) DUKE (6-5): 4.

66) MICHIGAN STATE (5-6): 4.

67) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO (7-4): 4.

68) WEST VIRGINIA (5-5): 3.

69) MINNESOTA (6-5): 3.

70) OLE MISS (5-6): 3.

71) AIR FORCE (6-5): 3.

72) TROY (5-6): 2.

73) MISSOURI (5-6): 1.

74) VIRGINIA TECH (5-6): 1.

75) PURDUE (5-6): 0.

76) SOUTHERN METHODIST (5-6): -1.

77) UTAH (4-7): -3.

78) TENNESSEE (4-7): -4.

79) MARSHALL (5-6): -4.

80) RICE (5-6): -4.

81) PITTSBURGH (4-6): -4.

82) CENTRAL MICHIGAN (5-6): -5.

83) WAKE FOREST (5-6): -9.

84) ARKANSAS (4-7): -9.

85) IOWA (4-7): -9.

86) VIRGINIA (4-7): -9.

87) HOUSTON (4-7): -10.

88) INDIANA (4-7): -12.

89) CONNECTICUT (4-6): -12.

90) WESTERN MICHIGAN (4-8): -13.

91) MARYLAND (4-7): -14.

92) TEMPLE (4-6): -14.

93) NEW MEXICO (4-8): -15.

94) FLORIDA ATLANTIC (3-8): -16.

95) NORTH TEXAS (4-7): -16.

96) MIAMI OHIO (4-7): -17.

97) BUFFALO (4-7): -17.

98) SOUTH FLORIDA (3-7): -18.

99) AUBURN (3-8): -18.

100) WYOMING (4-7): -18.

101) ALABAMA-BIRGMINGHAM (3-8): -20.

102) TEXAS STATE (3-7): -21.

103) CALIFORNIA (3-9): -23.

104) TEXAS-EL PASO (3-8): -24.

105) BOSTON COLLEGE (2-9): -25.

106) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (3-8): -25.

107) MEMPHIS (3-8): -25.

108) ILLINOIS (2-9): -26.

111) TULANE (2-9): -34.

112) ARMY (2-9): -34.

113) KENTUCKY (2-9): -35.

114) SOUTH ALABAMA (2-9): -35.

115) WASHINGTON STATE (2-9): -36.

116) EASTERN MICHIGAN (2-9): -37.

117) AKRON (1-10): -41.

118) KANSAS (1-10): -42.

119) NEW MEXICO STATE (1-9): -45.

120) HAWAII (1-9): -49.

121) IDAHO (1-10): -50.

123) SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (0-11): -51.

124) MASSACHUSETTS (1-10): -54.

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