FanPost

Week 13 Sagarin Ratings with Projections

Boy, these things are way more fun to do when we're winning...

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

Since most of the games have been decided, let's take a look at each of the conferences and see where we are:

ACC

Florida State 87.34
Clemson 83.13
North Carolina 78.44
Miami-Florida 73.83
Georgia Tech 73.61
Virginia Tech 72.61
NC State 70.65
Duke 65.62
Virginia 63.14
Maryland 60.45
Wake Forest 57.05
Boston College 62.39

ATLANTIC CONF. OVERALL
* - Florida State 7-1 11-1
Clemson 7-1 10-2
North Carolina State 4-4 7-5
Wake Forest 3-5 5-7
Maryland 2-6 4-8
Boston College 1-7 2-10
COASTAL CONF. OVERALL
* - Georgia Tech 5-3 6-6
x - Miami (FL)
5-3 7-5
x - North Carolina 5-3 6-6
Virginia Tech 4-4 6-6
Duke 3-5 6-6
Virginia 2-6 4-8


ACC Championship: Florida State (-14) over Georgia Tech

The model has FSU pulling the upset over Florida, which might just get the Seminoles back into the BCSNCG discussion with a little bit of BCS chaos (spoiler alert: there won't be). Elsewhere, the ACC falls in its other two matchups against the SEC, but ends up with 7 bowl eligible teams, which isn't too shabby considering they have one team on probation another team falling just short. UPDATE: I know all of you care ever so much, but Miami has self-imposed a postseason ban, putting Georgia Tech in the path of FSU's inevitable march to the Orange Bowl. Fun fact: according to this projection, the Yellowjackets will lose to two BCS teams in consecutive weeks.

BIG EAST

Rutgers 76.95
Cincinnati 74.91
Syracuse 73.56
Louisville 73.05
Pittsburgh 69.92
South Florida 65.92
Temple 61.40
Connecticut 61.11
TEAM CONF. OVERALL
* - Rutgers 7-0 11-1
Louisville 5-2 10-2
Cincinnati 5-2 9-3
Syracuse 5-2 7-5
Pittsburgh 2-5 5-7
Temple 2-5 4-7
South Florida 1-6 5-7
Connecticut 1-6 4-8


Big East Champion: Rutgers

Thank goodness for Kent State, not just for giving us Nick Saban, but also for saving us from moralizing windbags ballyhooing about Rutgers being an undefeated AQ conference champ deserving of a spot in the BCSNCG. Sidebar: props to Syracuse for scheduling 4 AQ conference OOC opponents. Not sure what's more shocking, 'Cuse pulling off a win or losing the other three by a combined 21 points.

BIG TEN

Nebraska 82.99
Michigan 82.50
Ohio State 81.97
Wisconsin 81.06
Penn State 79.26
Northwestern 78.01
Michigan State 76.17
Purdue 68.96
Iowa 68.63
Minnesota 68.20
Indiana 67.02
Illinois 56.82

Big Ten - Legends CONF. OVERALL
* - Nebraska 7-1 10-2
Michigan 6-2 8-4
Northwestern 5-3 9-3
Michigan State
3-5 6-6
Minnesota 2-6 6-6
Iowa 2-6 4-8
Big Ten - Leaders CONF. OVERALL
x - Ohio State 8-0 12-0
x - Penn State 6-2 8-4
* - Wisconsin 4-4 7-5
Purdue 3-5 6-6
Indiana 2-6 4-8
Illinois 0-8 2-10


Big Ten Championship: Nebraska (-2) over Wisconsin

This makes 3 national championships that Jim Tressel has delivered to the SEC: not only were his 2006 and 2007 squads ill-prepared to win on the big stage, but if it weren't for Tattoogate, the Buckeyes would be #2 in the BCS right now and two wins away from boxing Alabama and Georgia out of Miami. As it stands, the Cornhuskers are most likely to be awkwardly biting down on roses, and could even snatch up an at-large bid if Wisconsin squeaks out a win. Shockingly, Northwestern should end up eligible for (but likely missing out on) an at-large BCS bid, and Michigan's only one upset away from the same. Considering the dumpster fire (if that turn of phrase has not already become overused) we were pondering at the beginning of the season, seven bowl eligible teams isn't a bad ending for the Up North conference.

BIG 12

Kansas State 92.17
Oklahoma 90.16
Oklahoma State 87.91
Texas 86.14
Baylor 82.97
Texas Tech 81.17
TCU 79.33
Iowa State 78.32
West Virginia 75.44
Kansas 66.09

TEAM CONF. OVERALL
Kansas State 8-1 11-1
Oklahoma 8-1 10-2
Oklahoma State 7-2 9-3
Texas 6-3 9-3
Texas Tech 4-5 7-5
Iowa State 4-5 7-5
TCU 3-6 6-6
West Virginia 3-6 6-6
Baylor 3-6 6-6
Kansas 0-9 1-11


Big 12 Champion: Kansas State

What is there to say about K-State except, what could have been? The Big 12 misses out on taking home the crystal trophy, but for a consolation prize they likely get two BCS squads and nine teams placed in bowls. Sagarin ranks them as the toughest top-to-bottom conference in college football, and it's hard to disagree with that assessment.

CONFERENCE USA

Central Florida(UCF) 74.65
Tulsa 73.19
SMU 67.93
Rice 63.50
East Carolina 63.14
Marshall 59.90
Houston 58.74
UTEP 56.50
Memphis 55.60
UAB 54.90
Southern Miss 50.71
Tulane 50.10

EAST CONF. OVERALL
* - UCF 7-1 9-3
East Carolina 7-1 8-4
Marshall 4-4 5-7
Memphis 4-4 4-8
UAB 2-6 3-9
Southern Miss 0-8 0-12
WEST CONF. OVERALL
* - Tulsa 8-0 10-2
Rice 4-4 6-6
Southern Methodist 4-4 5-7
Houston 4-4 5-7
UTEP 2-6 3-9
Tulane 2-6 2-10


CUSA Championship: UCF (-1) over Tulsa

If Tulsa squeaks out the win instead of UCF, they'd have an outside of chance of getting a BCS bid at 11-2, but the Golden Hurrican is currently unranked in the BCS and would need some serious voodoo to sneak into the top 16. And at 3-9, can we get Todd to quit voting UAB #25?

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE

Northern Illinois 76.56
Kent State 69.35
Toledo 67.86
Ball State 67.43
Bowling Green 65.31
Ohio 60.86
Western Michigan 59.04
Central Michigan 55.24
Buffalo 53.33
Miami-Ohio 52.81
Eastern Michigan 50.14
Akron 49.80
Massachusetts 39.66

EAST CONF. OVERALL
* - Kent State 8-0 11-1
Bowling Green 6-2 8-4
Ohio 4-4 8-4
Buffalo 3-5 4-8
Miami (OH) 3-5 4-8
Massachusetts 1-7 1-11
Akron 0-8 1-11
WEST CONF. OVERALL
* - Northern Illinois 8-0 11-1
Ball State 6-2 8-4
Toledo 5-3 8-4
Central Michigan 4-4 6-6
Western Michigan 2-6 4-8
Eastern Michigan 1-7 2-10


MAC Championship: Northern Illinois (-7) over Kent State

A one-point loss to Iowa on a neutral field at the beginning of the season is the difference between NIU very likely getting a BCS at-large bid (or even an automatic bid with a bit of chaos) and a spot in the Totino's Pizza Rolls (But Not The Good Kind, Like Pepperoni, I'm Talking The Weird Niche Stuff Like Cajun Chicken Or Buffalo Ranch) Bowl.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Fresno State 79.43
Boise State 78.98
San Diego State 74.40
Nevada 66.47
Air Force 61.49
Wyoming 60.29
Colorado State 57.96
New Mexico 57.75
UNLV 58.27
Hawai'i 48.88

TEAM CONF. OVERALL
* - Boise State 7-1 10-2
Fresno State 7-1 9-3
San Diego State 7-1 9-3
Air Force 5-3 6-6
Nevada 4-4 7-5
Wyoming 3-5 4-8
Colorado State 3-5 4-8
UNLV 3-5 3-10
New Mexico 1-7 4-9
Hawaii 0-8 1-11


MWAC Champion: Boise State

Boise State could legitimately end up with an automatic BCS bid: they're ahead of Wisconsin, who could knock off Nebraska in the Big Ten title game. At that point, the Broncos would just have to jump 6 teams (with Louisville, Rutgers, Oklahoma State, Michigan, and UCLA all having losable games in front of them) to lock in a bid (likely to the Fiesta Bowl).

PAC 12

Oregon 94.23
Oregon State 89.49
Stanford 88.26
Southern California 86.59
Arizona State 85.03
UCLA 84.48
Arizona 79.47
Washington 78.41
Utah 77.18
California 68.75
Washington State 62.50
Colorado 52.38

NORTH CONF. OVERALL
* - Stanford 8-1 10-2
Oregon 8-1 11-1
Oregon State 6-3 9-3
Washington 6-3 8-4
California 2-7 3-9
Washington State 0-9 2-10
SOUTH CONF. OVERALL
* - UCLA 6-3 9-3
USC 5-4 7-5
Arizona State 5-4 7-5
Arizona 4-5 7-5
Utah 3-6 5-7
Colorado 1-8 1-11


Pac 12 Championship: Stanford (-2) over UCLA

In one overtime period, Oregon goes from playing for the national championship to sitting out its own conference championship (we know that feel, brah). Show of hands, who saw that coming? (Put your hand down, toofull.) As it stands, Stanford is likely to make the short commute to Pasadena, leaving Oregon likely stranded in the Fiesta (unless Oregon State wins the Civil War, in which case swap the Beavers for the Ducks and laugh for a solid 15 minutes).

SEC

Alabama 98.26
Florida 90.12
Texas A&M 92.58
Georgia 88.25
LSU 86.93
South Carolina 86.22
Mississippi State 78.95
Mississippi 77.53
Vanderbilt 77.16
Missouri 75.04
Tennessee 72.03
Arkansas 69.24
Auburn 65.74
Kentucky 61.34

EAST CONF. OVERALL
* - Georgia 7-1 11-1
Florida 7-1 10-2
South Carolina 6-2 10-2
Vanderbilt 5-3 8-4
Missouri 2-6 5-7
Tennessee 1-7 5-7
Kentucky 0-8 2-10
WEST CONF. OVERALL
* - Alabama 7-1 11-1
LSU 6-2 10-2
Texas A&M 6-2 10-2
Mississippi State 4-4 8-4
Ole Miss 3-5 6-6
Arkansas 2-6 4-8
Auburn 0-8 3-9


SEC Championship: Alabama (-10) over Georgia

And just like that, we're back in it. In other SEC news, Florida is expected to derp it away in Tallahassee, and Hugh Frieze will win Coach of Year (at least in the SEC) in the Egg Bowl. The model thinks Kentucky is just too bad to pull off a win over Tennessee, but I'm not sure how much Sagarin can factor in an interim coach and a bunch of unmotivated college kids. Finally, 9 bowl-bound teams in a 14-team conference ain't too shabby.

SUN BELT

Arkansas State 70.97
Louisiana-Monroe 72.36
Louisiana-Lafayette 71.85
Western Kentucky 67.58
Middle Tennessee 65.59
Troy 65.30
Fla. International 58.66
Florida Atlantic 58.49
North Texas 58.19
South Alabama 52.54

TEAM CONF. OVERALL
Arkansas State 7-1 9-3
Louisiana-Monroe 6-2 8-4
Louisiana-Lafayette 6-2 8-4
Middle Tennessee
6-2 8-4
Western Kentucky 4-4 7-5
Troy 3-5 5-7
North Texas 3-5 4-8
Florida International 2-6 3-9
Florida Atlantic 2-6 3-9
South Alabama 1-7 3-10


Sun Belt Champion: Arkansas State

Gus Malzahn's phone must be ringing off the hook right about now....

WAC

Utah State 82.80
San Jose State 79.38
Louisiana Tech 73.67
Texas State 57.98
Texas-San Antonio 57.30
Idaho 46.71
New Mexico State 46.29

TEAM CONF. OVERALL
* - Utah State 6-0 10-2
San Jose State 5-1 10-2
Louisiana Tech
4-2 9-3
UTSA 3-3 8-4
Texas State 2-4 4-8
Idaho 1-5 1-11
New Mexico State 0-6 1-11


WAC Champion: Utah State

Two road games at quality opponents (Wisconsin and BYU) decided by a total of 5 points keep Utah State from playing BCS buster. So sad.

INDEPENDENTS

Notre Dame 92.18
BYU 83.12
Navy 65.12
Army 52.48

TEAM OVERALL
Notre Dame 12-0
Navy 8-4
Brigham Young 7-5
Army 2-10

And there you have it: Notre Dame finishes off USC and punches their ticket to the BCSNCG. The Midshipment just barely miss out on BCS eligibility (which is saying something for a service academy), but that's about it from the independents.

Speaking of the BCS, let's look at this week's standings:

RK TEAM BCS AVG HARRIS RK PTS % USAT RK PTS % COMP AVG %
1 Notre Dame 0.9973 1 2863 0.996 1 1469 0.996 1 1.000
2 Alabama 0.9333 2 2732 0.95 2 1386 0.94 3 0.910
3 Georgia 0.8763 3 2573 0.895 3 1348 0.914 6 0.820
4 Florida 0.8434 5 2242 0.78 6 1166 0.791 2 0.960
5 Oregon 0.8318 4 2483 0.864 4 1227 0.832 7 0.800
6 Kansas State 0.7692 7 2161 0.752 8 1056 0.716 4 0.840
7 LSU 0.7308 8 2077 0.722 7 1062 0.72 8 0.750
8 Stanford 0.7077 11 1897 0.66 11 934 0.633 5 0.830
9 Texas A&M 0.6526 10 1909 0.664 10 994 0.674 10 0.620
10 Florida State 0.6363 6 2231 0.776 5 1199 0.813 17 0.320
11 Clemson 0.6056 9 1953 0.679 9 1029 0.698 15 0.440
12 South Carolina 0.5871 12 1647 0.573 12 853 0.578 11 0.610
13 Oklahoma 0.5677 13 1530 0.532 13 798 0.541 9 0.630
14 Nebraska 0.479 14 1275 0.444 14 654 0.443 12 0.550
15 Oregon State 0.4499 15 1202 0.418 17 563 0.382 12 0.550
16 Texas 0.4235 17 1088 0.378 15 593 0.402 14 0.490
17 UCLA 0.3826 16 1144 0.398 16 590 0.4 16 0.350
18 Rutgers 0.2432 19 756 0.263 19 408 0.277 21 0.190
19 Michigan 0.2253 20 575 0.2 20 289 0.196 19 0.280
20 Louisville 0.2165 18 898 0.312 18 453 0.307 26 0.030
21 Oklahoma State 0.2042 22 425 0.148 21 258 0.175 18 0.290
22 Boise State 0.1043 21 426 0.148 22 243 0.165 30 0.000
23 Kent State 0.0955 25 196 0.068 25 86 0.058 22 0.160
24 Arizona 0.0836 NR 21 0.007 NR 5 0.003 20 0.240
25 Washington 0.0643 NR 53 0.018 NR 36 0.024 23 0.150

source: http://espn.go.com/college-football/bcs

Notre Dame's clearly, #1, but can Alabama lock down #2? Outside of the Irish, only Florida has a better computer ranking (and in this scenario they lose to FSU, ceding points to the Tide). Assuming Florida and Georgia fall as the model projects, that doesn't give Oregon much room for advancement (as they were already ranked ahead of Florida); short of leap-frogging Bama altogether (unlikely without a Pac-12 championship game), their best bet would be around 90 more points in the Harris and 120 more points in USA Today, which only moves the dial 0.037 points against 0.1015 point lead. That leaves about 0.210 points needed to be gained in the chips, a feat that would require Oregon to get a better than perfect score. Oregon is not a threat if Alabama wins out.

What about K-State? The Wildcats are still #4 in the chips, thanks in part no doubt to a rule requiring BCS computers to disregard margin of victory. The MoE rule helps Bama too, however, as even ugly wins over Auburn and Georgia would keep the Tide on top of the Wildcats. Assuming Alabama takes Florida's spot in the chips and Kansas State takes Alabama's (a generous concession, as it would narrow Bama's edge from .07 to .05), K-State would need their percentages in both polls to improve by an average of 0.2361, which would require them to be ranked as highly as Notre Dame is now. Kansas State is out as well.

Any "outside the box" options? Florida State is becoming a trendy dark horse pick.....on ACC blogs and literally nowhere else. One BCS computer doesn't event have them ranked, and at #6 in the Harris and #5 in USA Today, they don't have a lot of ceiling with the humans. It's their upcoming opponent I'm more concerned about. If Florida beats FSU and takes Georgia's consensus #3 spot, they'd trail Alabama by only 0.01 points. If they could steal enough #2 votes from Alabama, they could conceivably leapfrog the Tide.

All the same, I'm still confidently picking Alabama for the #2 spot assuming this holds up. If so, we'd have the following BCS scenario:

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP: Notre Dame vs Alabama

FIESTA BOWL: Kansas State vs. At-large #1

SUGAR BOWL: (Replacement) vs. At-large #2

ORANGE BOWL: Florida State vs. At-large #3

ROSE BOWL: Nebraska vs. Stanford

Sugar Bowl gets the only replacement pick, and is in a pretty good spot: Fiesta can't take Oklahoma, so Sugar gets to choose between the SEC #2 and Oregon (whose fans may not be willing to schlep to New Orleans). The model projects both Georgia and Florida to have two losses, making Georgia the easy pick. Fiesta gets Oregon to face K-State in the "what could have been" bowl, sending the Sooners to the Sugar Bowl and sticking the Orange Bowl with an ACC/Big East matchup yet again.

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP: Alabama (-6) over Notre Dame

FIESTA BOWL: Oregon (-2) over Kansas State

SUGAR BOWL: Oklahoma (-2) over Georgia

ORANGE BOWL: Florida State (-10) over Rutgers

ROSE BOWL: Stanford (-5) over Nebraska

So, here we are, right where we started: with Alabama on top. What do you guys think?

FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.

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