FanPost

Week 4 Sagarin Ratings - Totes Bayesian! It's like we don't even have to play the games now!

It's that time of the week again, where I take a bunch of data someone else put together and make wild extrapolations from them! First, the data:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

Alabama 102.04

LSU 93.73

South Carolina 90.04

Florida 88.98

Texas A&M 88.49

Georgia 88.01

Missouri 80.22

Mississippi State 77.14

Auburn 74.96

Ole Miss 74.90

Tennessee 73.90

Vanderbilt 69.89

Arkansas 68.43

Kentucky 66.11

Now, the wild extrapolations...

Here's what Sagarin projects for the remainder of the season:

SEC WEST

Alabama (8-0)

LSU (7-1)

Texas A&M (5-3)

Ole Miss (4-4)

Mississippi State (4-4)

East Alabama Male College (2-6)

Arkansas (1-7)

SEC EAST

Florida (7-1)

South Carolina (6-2)

Georgia (6-2)

Missouri (3-5)

Tennessee (2-6)

Vanderbilt (1-7)

Kentucky (0-8)

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP

Alabama (-13) over Florida

Same rules apply: add 2.42 points to the home team, compare numbers, boom, project the outcome. Some random thoughts: The model clearly took that LSU/Auburn game very seriously. Florida's not #1 in the "predictor model" (like they are in the "ELO_CHESS" model that's used in the BCS), although at #8 they still feel too high. The model also loves TAMU, in a possibly related note, but the Aggies suffer from a brutal schedule.

OK, what seems most out of whack to you?

FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.

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