FanPost

Sagarin Predicts the 2013 Football Season: Week 8 (Plus the Power Conferences)

Huh. That was something.

Obviously, last weekend was a bit of a shake-up, so let's take a second to bask in some "Sagarin Told You So":

  1. Mizzou could be a 10-win team. Sure, UGA was beat the hell up, but losing by 15? At home? The other other Tigers have the talent to take beat just about any team in the country if you don't put them away.
  2. The gap between TAMU and Ole Miss ain't that large. The final result was little closer than the 6.47 margin that Sagarin projected, but this wasn't the Aggie blowout most of us envisioned.
  3. Texas has the talent to win a few big games. I wouldn't have put a dollar on Texas to upset Oklahoma, no matter the odds, but that 14-point spread looks absurd in hindsight. The Mack Brown regime is on its way out, but the Longhorns have the horses to ruin a few more national championship aspirations before the season's done (lookin' at you, Baylor).

Hopefully that will help you forget that the model thought Florida, Kentucky, and Arkansas could keep their respective games close. For now, let's check out the new Sagarin rankings (http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm):

   SEC-EAST  
  1. South Carolina  85.70  #14
  2. Florida  84.99  #16
  3. Missouri  84.51  #17
  4. Georgia  84.15  #19
  5. Tennessee  74.03  #47
  6. Vanderbilt  73.19  #51
  7. Kentucky  66.76  #82
______________________________

   SEC-WEST 
  1.  Alabama  94.88  #1
2. LSU 90.20 #4
3. Texas A&M 85.38 #15 4. Auburn 80.36 #26
5. Ole Miss 77.03 #42
6. Mississippi State 73.87 #48
7. Arkansas 69.92 #70

About that Missouri score: this is where computer rankings fail in comparison to "the eyeball test". I don't think the model is properly distinguishing between the Georgia that manhandled South Carolina and the Georgia that limped back to Athens to face Mizzou. Simply put, I'm not convinced that the other team from Columbia is within spitting distance of the Big Three in the East (assuming everyone's healthy). But, as it stands, the Big Three Plus Mizzou are now separated by 1.55 points, meaning home field advantage will decide the SEC East. And whadayaknow, Missouri gets the Gators and Gamecocks at home....

   SEC-EAST  
  1. Missouri  12-0  (8-0) Sugar Bowl
  2. Georgia  9-3  (6-2) Chick-fil-A Bowl
  3. South Carolina  10-2  (6-2) Outback Bowl
  4. Florida  7-5  (5-3) Liberty Bowl
  5. Tennessee  5-7  (2-6)
  6. Vanderbilt  5-7  (1-7)  
  7. Kentucky  2-10  (0-8)
______________________________

   SEC-WEST 
  1. Alabama  12-0  (8-0) BCS National Championship Game
  2. LSU  10-2  (6-2) Capital One Bowl
  3. Texas A&M  9-3  (5-3) Cotton Bowl
  4. Auburn  8-4  (4-4) Gator Bowl
  5. Mississippi State  6-6  (3-5) BBVA Compass Bowl?
  6. Ole Miss  6-6  (2-6) Music City Bowl?
  7. Arkansas  3-9  (0-8)
______________________________

   SEC CHAMPIONSHIP: Alabama (-10) over Missouri

The wackiness surrounding Mizzou really throws the season projections out of whack: I don't know how TAMU loses to them (let alone the trifecta of the Big Three in consecutive weeks), but if the coin tosses keep coming up heads, well...

As for the bowl picks, in this scenario you might see some kind of trade to prevent a Georgia/Clemson rematch (possibly putting TAMU in the Chick-fil-A and Georgia in the Cotton), but that's tough to project.

Elsewhere around the country:

   ACC-ATLANTIC
  1. FSU  12-0  (8-0) Orange Bowl
  2. Clemson  10-2  (7-1) Chick-fil-A Bowl
  3. Maryland  9-3  (6-2) Sun Bowl
  4. Syracuse  6-6  (4-4) Independence Bowl
  5. Boston College  5-7  (2-6)
  6. Wake Forest  3-9  (1-7) 
7. N.C. State 4-8 (1-7) ______________________________ ACC-COASTAL 1. Miami 11-1 (7-1) Sugar Bowl 2. Virginia Tech 10-2 (7-1) Champs Sports Bowl 3. Georgia Tech 7-5 (5-3) Belk Bowl 4. Duke 7-5 (3-5) Music City Bowl 5. Pitt 5-7 (3-5) 6. UNC 5-7 (3-5)
7. Virginia 2-10 (0-8)
______________________________ ACC CHAMPIONSHIP: FSU (-10) over Miami
   BIG TEN-LEADERS
  1. Ohio State  12-0  (8-0) Rose Bowl
  2. Wisconsin  10-2  (7-1) Fiesta Bowl
  3. Penn State  8-4  (5-3) Gator Bowl?
  4. Indiana  6-6  (4-4) Heart of Dallas Bowl
  5. Illinois  5-7  (2-6)
  6. Purdue  1-11  (0-8) 
______________________________

   BIG TEN-LEGENDS
  1. Michigan State  10-2  (7-1) Capital One Bowl
  2. Nebraska  9-3  (6-2) Outback Bowl
  3. Iowa  8-4  (5-3) Meineke Car Care Bowl?
  4. Michigan  8-4  (4-4) Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl?
  5. Northwestern  5-7  (1-7) 
  6. Minnesota  4-8  (0-8)
______________________________ BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP: Ohio State (-6) over Michigan State
   BIG 12
  1. Baylor  12-0  (9-0) Fiesta Bowl
  2. Texas  8-4  (7-2) Cotton Bowl?
  3. Oklahoma  9-3  (6-3) Alamo Bowl?
  4. Texas Tech  9-3  (6-3) Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl?
  5. Oklahoma State  8-4  (5-4) Holiday Bowl 
  6. Kansas State  6-6  (4-5) Texas Bowl?
7. TCU 6-6 (4-5) Pinstripe Bowl?
8. West Virginia 5-7 (3-6)
9. Iowa State 2-10 (1-7)
10. Kansas 2-10 (0-8)
______________________________ BIG 12 CHAMPION: Baylor
   PAC 12-NORTH
  1. Oregon  12-0  (9-0) BCS National Championship Game
  2. Stanford  10-2  (7-2) Rose Bowl
  3. Washington  8-4  (5-4) Sun Bowl
  4. Oregon State  7-5  (5-4) Fight Hunger Bowl?
  5. Washington State  4-8  (2-7)
  6. Cal  1-11  (0-0) 
______________________________

   PAC 12-SOUTH
  1. UCLA  10-2  (7-2) Alamo Bowl
  2. Arizona State  9-3  (7-2) Holiday Bowl
  3. USC  7-6  (4-5) Las Vegas Bowl?
  4. Arizona  7-5  (4-5) New Mexico Bowl?
  5. Utah  6-6  (3-6) at-large (possibly Pinstripe/Heart of Dallas)
  6. Colorado  3-9  (1-8)
______________________________ PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP: Oregon (-12) over UCLA
   AAC CHAMPION: Louisville (12-0)
CUSA CHAMPION: Marshall (11-2)
MAC CHAMPION: Bowling Green (11-2)
MWC CHAMPION: Boise State (10-3)
SUN BELT CHAMPION:
Western Kentucky (10-2)
BCS ELIGIBLE INDEPENDENTS: Notre Dame (9-3)

While we may have seen some intraconference chaos, the story at the top is the same: every AQ conference champ is undefeated. So how do we pick #1 and #2? BCS Guru's simulated standings for this week break it down thusly:

1. Alabama

2. Oregon

4. FSU

5. Ohio State

9. Louisville

10. Baylor

And for once, the chips line up pretty nicely with the polls (with the exception of the computers sensibly putting Baylor above the Cards). Assuming that these 6 teams won't move much in relation to one another as long as they win out (since pollsters don't like admitting they're wrong) and the chips don't break dramatically one way or the other (according to Football Outsiders, Oregon has the toughest schedule moving forward of the 6, followed by FSU, Baylor and Alabama; with Alabama's hold on the human voters, I don't see the Tide slipping past second), I think we have our BCS matchups:

BCS Automatic Bids: Louisville (AAC champion), FSU (ACC champion), Ohio State (Big Ten champion), Baylor (Big 12 champion), Oregon (Pac 12 champion), Alabama (SEC champion)

BCS At-Large Eligible:
Missouri (12-1), Miami (11-2), LSU (10-2), South Carolina (10-2), Clemson (10-2), Virginia Tech (10-2), Stanford (10-2), UCLA (10-3), Wisconsin (10-2), Michigan State (10-3), Notre Dame (9-3), Georgia (9-3), Texas A&M (9-3), Maryland (9-3), Arizona State (9-3), Nebraska (9-3), Oklahoma (9-3), Texas Tech (9-3), Marshall (11-2), Bowling Green (11-2), Boise State (10-3), Western Kentucky (10-2)

BCS Matchups:

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama (-1) over Oregon
Rose Bowl: Stanford (-1) over Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Florida State (-6) over Louisville
Sugar Bowl: Missouri (-3) over Miami (not gonna happen, but there you go)
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (-3) over Wisconsin

FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.

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