FanPost

Sagarin Predicts the 2013 Football Season: Week 10, or The Return of Clarity

Now the picture is getting a little more clear.

   SEC-EAST  
  1. Missouri  11-1  (7-1) Capital One Bowl
  2. South Carolina  10-2  (6-2) Sugar Bowl
  3. Georgia  7-5  (4-4) Liberty Bowl
  4. Florida  6-6  (4-4) BBVA Compass Bowl?
  5. Tennessee  6-6  (3-5) Music City Bowl?
  6. Vanderbilt  6-6  (2-6) Independence Bowl?
  7. Kentucky  2-10  (0-8)
______________________________

   SEC-WEST 
  1. Alabama  12-0  (8-0) BCS National Championship Game
2. Auburn 10-2 (6-2) Cotton Bowl
3. LSU 9-3 (5-3) Outback Bowl 4. Texas A&M 8-4 (4-4) Chick-fil-A Bowl 5. Ole Miss 8-4 (4-4) Gator Bowl 6. Mississippi State 5-7 (2-6) 7. Arkansas 3-9 (0-8) ______________________________ SEC CHAMPIONSHIP: Alabama (-12) over Missouri

Lots of bowl wackiness to account for. The Sugar Bowl has to choose between a red-hot Auburn team that lost its most recent game, SEC runner-up Mizzou, and the South Carolina squad that had already beaten them (along with Clemson). I think that gives the Gamecocks the edge, sending New Miss to the Capital One Bowl and AU (FAU) to the Cotton (but your mileage may vary). Since the Outback doesn't have to take an East team (I was recently corrected on that point), LSU would be the obvious next pick. Manziel makes TAMU the more attractive pick than Ole Miss, and Georgia lands in the Liberty, but for the bottom three bowl-eligible SEC teams, your guess is as good as mine.

Elsewhere around the country...

   ACC-ATLANTIC
  1. FSU  12-0  (8-0) Orange Bowl
  2. Clemson  10-2  (7-1) Russell Athletic Bowl
  3. Maryland  8-4  (4-4) Independence Bowl?
  4. Syracuse  5-7  (2-6) 
  5. Boston College  5-7  (2-6)
  6. Wake Forest  4-8  (2-6) 
7. N.C. State 3-9 (0-8) ______________________________ ACC-COASTAL 1. Miami 11-1 (7-1) Chick-fil-A Bowl 2. Virginia Tech 9-3 (6-2) Sun Bowl 3. Georgia Tech 8-4 (5-3) Belk Bowl? 4. Pitt 6-6 (4-4) at-large? (Heart of Dallas Bowl?) 5. UNC 6-6 (4-4) Military Bowl? 6. Duke 8-4 (4-4) Music City Bowl?
7. Virginia 2-10 (0-8)
______________________________ ACC CHAMPIONSHIP: FSU (-14) over Miami
   BIG TEN-LEADERS
  1. Ohio State  12-0  (8-0) Rose Bowl
  2. Wisconsin  10-2  (7-1) Capital One Bowl
  3. Penn State  8-4  (5-3) Gator Bowl?
  4. Indiana  6-6  (4-4) Heart of Dallas Bowl?
  5. Illinois  4-8  (1-7)
  6. Purdue  1-11  (0-8) 
______________________________

   BIG TEN-LEGENDS
  1. Michigan State  11-1  (8-0) Fiesta Bowl
  2. Iowa  8-4  (5-3) Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl?
  3. Michigan  8-4  (4-4) Outback Bowl?
4. Nebraska 7-5 (4-4) Texas Bowl
5. Minnesota 6-6 (1-7) Little Caesers Bowl? 6. Northwestern 5-7 (0-8)
______________________________ BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP: Ohio State (-5) over Michigan State
   BIG 12
  1. Baylor  12-0  (9-0) Fiesta Bowl
  2. Texas  9-3  (8-1) Cotton Bowl?
  3. Texas Tech  9-3  (6-3) Alamo Bowl?
  4. Oklahoma State  8-4  (5-4) Holiday Bowl?
5. Oklahoma 8-4 (5-4) Buffalo Wild Wing Bowl? 6. Kansas State 7-5 (5-4) Texas Bowl
7. TCU 5-7 (3-6)
8. West Virginia 5-7 (3-6)
9. Iowa State 2-10 (1-7)
10. Kansas 2-10 (0-8)
______________________________ BIG 12 CHAMPION: Baylor
   PAC 12-NORTH
  1. Oregon  12-0  (9-0) BCS National Championship Game
  2. Stanford  10-2  (7-2) Rose Bowl
  3. Washington  8-4  (5-4) Sun Bowl
  4. Oregon State  7-5  (5-4)  New Mexico Bowl?
  5. Washington State  5-7  (3-6)
  6. Cal  1-11  (0-0) 
______________________________

   PAC 12-SOUTH
  1. Arizona State  10-2  (8-1) Alamo Bowl
  2. USC  8-5  (5-4) Holiday Bowl?
  3. Arizona  8-4  (5-4)  Las Vegas Bowl?
4. UCLA 7-5 (7-2) Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl?
5. Utah 5-7 (2-7) 6. Colorado 4-8 (1-8)
______________________________ PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP: Oregon (-6) over Arizona State
   AAC CHAMPION: UCF (11-1)
CUSA CHAMPION: North Texas (10-3) (I had to look up Conference USA tie-breaker scenarios for this. Fun fact: unless North Texas, Rice, or Tulane start getting BCS votes, Tulane having won the CUSA in 1998 decides who wins the CUSA-West. In 2013.)
MAC CHAMPION: Northern Illinois (12-1)
MWC CHAMPION: Boise State (10-3)
SUN BELT CHAMPION:
Louisiana-Lafayette (10-2)
BCS ELIGIBLE INDEPENDENTS: Notre Dame (9-3)

Our second BCS standings have restored order in the galaxy; let's see who's left for the contenders.

1. Alabama (#13 LSU, #11 Auburn, #9 Missouri in the SECCG)

2. Oregon (#5 Stanford, #32 Oregon State, #27 Arizona State in the PAC12CG)

3. FSU (#7 Miami, #34 Florida, #7 Miami in the ACCCG)

4. Ohio State (#21 Michigan, #22 Michigan State in the B1GCG)

6. Baylor (#10 Oklahoma, #15 Texas Tech, #18 Oklahoma State, #33 Texas)

Oregon has a 0.01 leaded in the chips over FSU, which doesn't sound like much except that's enough to put almost as much space between Oregon and FSU as there is between FSU and Ohio State. Unless the voters change their minds, we're left with a little bit of shake-up in the BCS but the top 2 remain the same...

BCS Automatic Bids: UCF (AAC champion), FSU (ACC champion), Ohio State (Big Ten champion), Baylor (Big 12 champion), Oregon (Pac 12 champion), Alabama (SEC champion), Northern Illinois (MAC champion, ranked in top 16 and ahead of AAC champion)

BCS At-Large Eligible (listed by current BCS ranking):
Stanford (10-2), Miami (11-2), Clemson (10-2), Missouri (11-2), Oklahoma (9-3), Auburn (10-2), LSU (9-3), South Carolina (10-2), Texas Tech (9-3), Louisville (11-1), Michigan State (11-2), Wisconsin (10-2), Notre Dame (9-3), Virginia Tech (9-3), Arizona State (10-3), Boise State (10-3), Louisiana-Lafayette (10-2), North Texas (10-3)

BCS Matchups:

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama (-2) over Oregon
Rose Bowl: Stanford (-1) over Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Florida State (-12) over Michigan State (Miami gets hosed by AAC ineptitude)
Sugar Bowl: South Carolina (-3) over UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (-21, not a typo) over Northern Illinois

FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.

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