I am amazed at how so many Bama folks are totally unconcerned about our unimpressive wins as compared to wins by FSU, Oregon, Clemson, and even Ohio St. I think there is real reason to be concerned, not so much about losing but about our BCS position.
To begin with I really think there are going to be at least 3 undefeated teams at the end of the season and that does not count Alabama (nor Louisville.) Just because this has not happened recently has nothing to do with it happening this year. Actually, the fact that we recently have seen big upsets means the odds are sooner or later we will have year with no really big upsets...this will be that year.
First, I can not see Ohio State losing. The refs in the Big 10 want Ohio St to go undefeated and given the chance they will give them the benefit of the doubt and a bad spot too boot. But it really doesn’t matter about the refs. Ohio St is not going to lose to Michigan because Michigan is just not that good. Even a rematch with the Northwestern chokers will not result in an Ohio St. loss.
Secondly, the winner of Oregon and Stanford, probably Oregon, will not lose. I know it seems like every year Oregon blows a game. But I just don’t see anyone who can challenge either of these two except each other. Obviously Washington can’t, and I don’t think Oregon St. can either. UCLA in the championship game is a Duck blow out.
Third, the winner of FSU and Clemson, probably FSU will not lose. I know both these team usually blow a game, but both have excellent qb’s, and they will not lose to any of the mediocre teams in the ACC. FSU will beat Miami in Tallahassee for sure and regardless of who is in the ACCCG, it will be a lopsided win for an undefeated Clemson or an undefeated FSU.
There is also a slight chance Baylor or Oklahoma could go undefeated, but I do think they will both lose.
Nevertheless that potentially leaves Ohio St, Oregon, FSU and Bama all undefeated. And, when that happens it is going to come down to style points for both the voters and the computers. Conventional wisdom says the two time undefeated champ would be in the NCG...but I lived through 1966 so I know anything is possible. I’m telling you when FSU goes undefeated and destroys UF by 40 and Oregon puts up 50 on Stanford there are going to be a lot of voters who want a shoot out showdown Oregon v. FSU. Add to that fact that at times Bama has not been that dominating-just see Va Tech and CSU already.
At any rate there are some teams Bama fans need to start pulling for right now. First we need to pull for LSU to win ever game until they play us. That means we want them to beat UF on Sat. It would be very helpful if LSU were a top 10 team when we beat them. After they lose to us I, we want them to also lose to aTm and aTm to be 11-1 at the end of the season and ranked in the top 6. That would be very helpful.
We also need UGA to win all their games until the SECCG. They would probably be the highest ranked 1 loss team, probably 5 or 6 and if we beat them in the SECCG that would be very helpful. Forget UGA’s injuries we need them to win out. UF is not going to beat FSU so if UF takes the East they may not even be a top 10 ten.
Obviously we want Va Tech to win as much as they can as it helps our SOS. Other teams we play in conference we want them to win unless they are playing LSU, aTm, or UGA. For example we do not want Mississippi to beat LSU, Kentucky to beat UGA, or MSU to beat aTm. I realize Miss, UK, and MSU wins would help them on our schedule, but trust me we need LSU, UGA, and aTm to win to give us signature wins which impress voters.
For example, if Alabama was 13-0, but the next best SEC team was 8-4, it could be that the SEC is actually strong, but everyone just beat everyone else. Yet in reality the voters will see the SEC as a having a down year and Bama will suffer in the polls. Remember 1966!!
I do think that if we beat an 11-1 UGA and an 8-1 LSU that will be enough to sway the computers and the voters. But if LSU is say 6-3 when we play (they have UF and Mississippi) and UGA is 9-3 (losing to say UF and Ga Tech) we are in a bit of trouble. We will be in even more trouble if we catch a 9-3 UF team in the SECCG and the week before they were beat 63-7 by FSU. Even if we beat em 25-0, an undefeated FSU might get the nod over us.
So pull for UGA, LSU, and aTm for the time being. I guess if Oregon, Stanford, FSU, Clemson, and Ohio St, all lost you could pull for whomever you want. I just don’t see them all losing.
But just trust me on this. If we go undefeated and yet do not look impressive doing it, and do not beat many top teams, we could be shut out of the game. Probably not by Ohio St., but by Oregon/Stanford winner and the Clemson/FSU winner. And in case you are saying, who do they play...they play each other? And the winner of Clemson/FSU will have beat a top SEC team to boot. And if UF beats LSU and UGA, like some of you want, FSU will also have a top 6 or 7 UF.
Consider this seriously-FSU is already up to #6, they could easily jump us. If they beat #3 Clemson, #9 Miami (could be by the time they play), and # 6 UF (assuming UF beats everybody as some of you all want) by 30 pts. a game, and, with Winston, it is possible then they will have more signature wins then we will have. We will be pointing at a #7 aTm, and #13 LSU, and a #11 UF. If I were a voter I’d take FSU.
For Oregon the opponents, less Stanford, are not so glorious. But the media loves Oregon and they crush people. And they crushed UT. Will we beat UT by 50? Probably not.
I’m just saying we don’t need to leave the voters any reason to discount us because some are already growing tired of Saban and Bama. Pull for UGA, LSU, and aTm.
By the way...if all you want is an SEC crown than pull against LSU and aTm. I'd still rather face UGA than UF in the SECCG, so pull for them regardless.