SEC Tournament play begins on Tuesday in Hoover. UGA and UT finished 13th and 14th respectively and both are out of the tourney and their seasons are mercifully over. In the SEC Tourney the seeding, based on record, goes like this: Vandy- 1, LSU-2, Arky-3, USCe-4 (these have first round byes) MSU-5, Miss.-6, Bama-7, UF-8, aTm-9, AU-10, UK-11, Mizzou-12.
In the first round Bama get's AU on Tuesday some time around noon (after the first game.) If we win that game we will face LSU. The first game is single elimination so if we lose to AU we are in serious trouble. We will be done with the SEC and perhaps done for the year. Perhaps.
Naturally, you would like to win the SEC Tournament. However, I think we need to be realistic in this matter and hope for a good showing. Remember we did not even make the SEC Tourney last year. My personal opinion is that going 2-2 in the SEC Tourney, beating AU game one and then winning one game in the double elimination portion of the tourney (it switches to double elimination after day 1) would be a good showing. Anymore than that would be gravy.
As far as the NCAA Tourney for Bama, that is still up in the air. Last year the SEC got 8 invites to the big dance. We are almost a cinch to get 7 this year, probably 8, and even have an outside shot at 9 teams in the tourney. But for safety, figure we get 8. Currently Bama has a 28 RPI. That would be in for sure...except there is more baseball to be played. Currently I think 6 teams-- Vandy, LSU, Arky (even with a high RPI) USCe, MSU and Mississippi are already in the NCAA tourney. There are 5 teams, Bama, UF, aTm, AU, and UK fighting for 1,2,or possibly 3 spots.
Let us assume that there are two spots for these 5 teams. There could be3, but let us assume there are 2. UF, has the lowest RPI of the group with 26, followed by Bama 28, AU 32, UK 39, and aTm 44. These 5 teams are so closely grouped if any one of them gets hot in the SEC tourney they could jump the others into an NCAA regional. And, these current RPIs could change dramatically with this week's games.
If we beat AU tomorrow we pretty much eliminate them. Then, even if we lose to LSU and lose again we still should have a high enough RPI and a strong enough regular season to get in. However, lose to AU and they could jump us with that win alone. Plus we have no chance to even play the #6 RIP team LSU.
Any way I predict it all comes down to beating AU on Tuesday for this season. If we win we will probably make an NCAA regional but if we lose it will be very close. If you are in B'Ham, come on out we need to win this game.
SEC Tournament seeding
1. Vanderbilt, 26-3
2. LSU, 23-7
3. Arkansas, 18-11
4. South Carolina, 17-12
5. Mississippi State, 16-14
6. Ole Miss, 15-15
7. Alabama, 14-15
8. Florida, 14-15
9. Texas A&M, 13-16
10. Auburn, 13-17
11. Kentucky, 11-19
12. Missouri, 10-20
Tuesday (single elimination)
Game 1: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 Kentucky, 9:30 a.m., FSN
Game 2: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 10 Auburn, TBD, FSN
Game 3: No. 8 Florida vs. No. 9 Texas A&M, 4:30 p.m., CSS
Game 4: No. 5 Mississippi State vs. No. 12 Missouri, TBD, CSS
Wednesday (double elimination)
Game 5: No. 3 Arkansas vs. Game 1 Winner, 9:30 a.m., CSS
Game 6: No. 2 LSU vs. Game 2 Winner, TBD, CSS
Game 7: No. 1 Vanderbilt vs. Game 3 Winner, 4:30 p.m., CSS
Game 8: No. 4 South Carolina vs. Game 4 Winner, TBD, CSS
Thursday (double elimination)
Game 9: Game 5 Loser vs. Game 6 Loser, 9:30 a.m., SPSO
Game 10: Game 7 Loser vs. Game 8 Loser, TBD, SPSO
Game 11: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, 4:30 p.m., SPSO
Game 12: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner, TBD, SPSO
Friday (double elimination)
Game 13: Game 9 Winner vs. Game 11 Loser, 3 p.m., CSS
Game 14: Game 10 Winner vs. Game 12 Loser, TBD, CSS
Saturday (single elimination)
Game 15: Game 13 Winner vs. Game 11 Winner, Noon, ESPNEWS
Game 16: Game 14 Winner vs. Game 12 winner, TBD, ESPNEWS
Game 17: Game 15 Winner vs. Game 16 Winner, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2