FanPost

Sagarin Predicts the 2013 Football Season



Oh boy oh boy oh boy oh boy we get college football tonight!

But wait, why actually watch the games when a dubious computer model can tell you what the results will be ahead of time? Let's take a look.....

   SEC-EAST  
  1. Georgia 89.55    #5
  2. South Carolina 86.77   #10
  3. Florida  85.28   #12
  4. Vanderbilt 78.12   #34
  5. Missouri  76.95   #38
  6. Tennessee 76.79   #39
  7. Kentucky 68.44   #75
______________________________

   SEC-WEST 
  1.  Alabama 98.57    #1
  2.  Texas A&M  90.07    #3
  3.  LSU  89.01    #6
  4.  Ole Miss 80.52   #27
  5.  Mississippi State  #77.08   #35
  6.  Auburn  76.30   #44
  7.  Arkansas  75.67   #47

Here we have the preseason rankings provided by Jeff Sagarin (http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm). First off, I'd like to point out that half of Sagarin's top 10 are in the SEC, as well as 3 of the top 5 [insert "SEC" chant here]. Second off, Alabama's #1, and both of our rivals are second-to-last in their respective divisions; it's a good time to be a Bama fan.

OK, now the fun part; since we're using his PURE POINTS model (instead of the ELO-CHESS model used by the BCS), we can account for margin of victory, meaning we can literally take the ranking of one team and subtract its opponent's (adjusting for home-field advantage, currently pegged at 3.01 points) and figure out who will win and by how much.

So what does that look like?

   SEC-EAST  
  1. Georgia 12-0 (8-0)
  2. South Carolina 11-1 (7-1)
  3. Florida  9-3 (5-3)
  4. Tennessee 6-6 (3-5)
  5. Vanderbilt 6-6 (3-5)
  6. Missouri  6-6 (2-6)
  7. Kentucky 3-9 (0-8)
______________________________

   SEC-WEST 
  1. Alabama 12-0 (8-0)
  2. LSU  10-2 (6-2)
  3. Texas A&M 10-2 (6-2)
  4. Ole Miss 7-5 (4-4)
  5. Arkansas 5-7 (2-6)
  6. Auburn 5-7 (1-7)
  7. Mississippi State 4-8 (1-7)
______________________________

   SEC CHAMPIONSHIP: Alabama (-8) over Georgia

Roll Tide, y'all

FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.

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