Another week, another round of Sagarin ratings (http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm). Despite a number of losses (but only two that Sagarin didn't predict), not a lot of movement:
SEC-EAST 1. Georgia 89.01 #6 2. South Carolina 87.39 #9 3. Florida 85.29 #11 4. Vanderbilt 78.00 #35 5. Missouri 76.35 #44 6. Tennessee 75.10 #48 7. Kentucky 66.75 #81 ______________________________ SEC-WEST 1. Alabama 98.70 #1 2. LSU 89.76 #4 3. Texas A&M 88.64 #7 4. Ole Miss 81.17 #22 5. Arkansas 76.71 #39 6. Mississippi State #76.59 #40 7. Auburn 75.38 #47
Again, since the ratings didn't move around too much, the projected final standings look about the same:
SEC-EAST 1. Georgia 11-1 (8-0) 2. South Carolina 11-1 (7-1) 3. Florida 8-4 (5-3) 4. Tennessee 6-6 (3-5) 5. Missouri 6-6 (2-6) 6. Vanderbilt 5-7 (2-6) 7. Kentucky 2-10 (0-8) ______________________________ SEC-WEST 1. Alabama 12-0 (8-0) 2. LSU 10-2 (6-2) 3. Texas A&M 10-2 (6-2) 4. Ole Miss 7-5 (4-4)
5. Arkansas 5-7 (2-6)
6. Mississippi State 5-7 (2-6) 7. Auburn 4-8 (0-8) ______________________________ SEC CHAMPIONSHIP: Alabama (-9) over Georgia
(edited 9/5 to correct typos on Florida's and Miss. St.'s records)
So before we start breaking old crystal footballs to make room for new ones, who does Sagarin think we'll end up playing for all the marbles?
In the ACC, Clemson should run the table with a favorable schedule, and assuming they don't Clemson a game away somewhere (my money's on week 3 at NC State), they should be undefeated going into the South Carolina game. Sagarin thinks that Boyd will get Clowney'd, and after beating the Coastal Division's sacrificial lamb (I'm betting Miami, but VT could surprise some folks), they'll be yet another one-loss major-conference champ praying for chaos.
Up north in the Big TenPlusTwo, Sagarin is buying the Ohio State hype (an Ohio State hype?); with home games against the only division rivals that can beat them, the model thinks the Buckeyes will be undefeated until The Game, which is in Ann Arbor. Michigan will win that game (despite losing to Sparty a few weeks earlier), setting up a rematch that will give Braxton Miller a trip to New York and provide Ohio State with hope (but only hope) for another chance to get embarrassed by the SEC.
The Big TwelveLOLjk is simpler to analyze: the only team Oklahoma State could be projected to lose to is Oklahoma, who they get at home (in addition to having Big Game Bob on the opposing sidelines). The Cowboys go undefeated against a dismal OOC schedule, but with wins over as many as 4 top 25 teams, revenge for 2011 is on the table (barring another Iowa State debacle; that game is in Ames this year, after all).
Out west, Stanford reaps the benefits of getting home dates with Oregon, Notre Dame, Arizona State (twice), and UCLA, resulting in an undefeated regular season and a Pac-12 championship. Beating the heavily hyped Ducks (on a Thursday night, no less) should be enough to punch their ticket for the big dance.
Elsewhere, no one can accuse Notre Dame of having a weak schedule (resulting in two road losses); Louisville unsurprisingly wins the newly rechristened AAC, but surprisingly does so with one loss at the top of a four-team scrum; Tulsa takes the CUSA with precisely zero chance of a BCS bid, unlike Northern Illinois, who repeats as undefeated MAC champion and BCS bowl sacrifice (for variety, they'll be fed to the Big 12 this year); Boise State lolololololol enjoy the Maaco Bowl Las Vegas, smurfs.
BCS Matchups:BCS National Championship Game: Alabama (-8) over Stanford
Rose Bowl: Oregon (-5) over Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Notre Dame (-1) over Clemson
Sugar Bowl: South Carolina (-7) over Louisville
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (-17) over Northern Illinois