Our coverage of the New Year's Six continues today, as Ben Sears, Ole Whistle Britches, and Brent Taylor discuss the Cotton Bowl.
Outside of the 2011 Wisconsin-Oregon Rose Bowl, I can't think of a more disparate matchup in terms of style of play and overall strengths. Michigan State has struggled against up-tempo teams that spread the ball around, particularly against Oregon and Ohio State. There's no way the Spartan defense is up to the task, is there?
Brent: Michigan State has typically been known for a defensive, old school team in recent years. While they still cling to that identity, the defense has not been all that spectacular this year (see: Oregon and Ohio State, mentioned above). Baylor's offense, as always, is terrifying. On top of experienced QB Bryce Petty, the Bears have three receivers with at least 50 catches, and a running back with over 1200 yards. Coach Art Briles' offense is always a threat, and I don't see the Spartans being able to do much to slow down Baylor's attack.
OWB: It is doubtful. This year's Spartan defense is workable, but not nearly as consistent as MSU's last several units. Let's face it, Baylor's offense is an absolute juggernaut, and with Art Briles' mind and Bryce Petty's arm, there aren't many defenses that could effectively corral the Bear attack without a considerable amount of dysfunction on the part of Baylor, i.e. self-inflicted wounds such as penalties, turnovers, etc. The Baylor offense will slice and dice Michigan State, quite simply.
While I think Baylor could be contained by some of the elite defenses in the country, the Michigan State defense has neither the speed nor conditioning to hem up the Bears for four quarters. Just look at what happened when the Spartans played Ohio State...the Buckeyes hung 49 on the men in green. Against Oregon, Sparty allowed 46 points. Baylor's offense is no less explosive than the aforementioned, so I expect a similar result.
That said, anything can happen in bowl games given the considerable preparation time teams have leading up to the bowl season. In this case, however, I just don't think that plays to the Spartans' favor. Sparty will need to score half a hundred to win this game, which actually could happen against Baylor's rancid defense.
Ben: Michigan State has been effective at taking away the run this year by packing numbers into the box. For those of us in the pre-A&M SEC imprint, most of what we see of the Bears are highlights on CBS or ESPN national round ups filled with long bombs and five wide sets. All passing. But they actually are calling runs 56% of the time and averaging a respectable 235.2 yards per game. They are not strangers to leading a game so surely those numbers are skewed by garbage time clock wasting, but that aside, it's a formidable attack. You don't usually lead the nation in yards per game by being one dimensional.
I'd look for the Spartans to come out early in obvious pass coverage formations daring Baylor to run. If their front seven or six can reasonably contain the rushing attack without support they have a great chance of winning. The HU part of the offensive, which is a refuge for whores and disseminators, will keep them from substituting and they will have lapses, but I think they stand a good chance.
If they can't contain the run, this thing is over. The Spartans will have to commit or not commit a defensive back and you know Briles will "hit em where they ain't," to borrow a phrase from baseball. This is how the HUNH will take its toll.
The Bears average 88.7 plays per game. That's not a lot of time between plays for diagnosis, decision, and communication. That's also a lot of opportunities to get it wrong. Add fatigue and frustration and things get ugly. Either scenario is possible, but I'm leaning in favor of the Spartan's line holding against the run.
Conversely, can the Baylor defense hold up for sixty minutes against a more physical opponent that wants to grind its way to victory?
Brent: Michigan State has built its identity as a smash mouth team riding the legs of tailback Jeremy Langford, who has been spectacularly dependable if not actually spectacular the last two seasons. 1100-yard receiver Tony Lippett is always a threat off the play action, and is always a big play waiting to happen, evidenced by his astounding 18.7 yards per catch on the season. Baylor, while known for offense, is just as well known for a lack of defense. State will run the ball down Baylor's throat and move it almost at will all game.
OWB: Baylor's defense is so bad, Clemson points and laughs. Let's face it: the Bears are glorified tackling dummies on defense, and even though MSU doesn't have the most electrifying offense in college football, they have proven that they can score against decent defenses with elite caliber athletes. For example, against Ohio State (which has a defense that is eons ahead of Baylor's), the Spartans pounded out 37 points in a losing effort. Against Oregon, they struggled mightily but still managed 27. Both of these teams field better defenses than the Bears, and the level of talent amongst the Ducks' and Buckeyes' defenders is excellent in comparison to the Bear defense.
As a result, the Spartans should be able to score early before their big burlies begin to wear down. The question is not whether Sparty can score, but whether Sparty can score early and often enough to keep up with Baylor's high-octane spread, since I don't give MSU's defense credit for being able to squelch the Baylor O. The Spartans could conceivably score upwards of 40 against the Bears...but will that even be enough? If the Bears race-car them out of the gate and gain an early lead, I don't think the Spartan offense will be able to keep pace.
Ben: Only if MSU is having a bad day. Baylor is an offensive juggernaut, averaging a nation-leading 48.8 points per game, but it's not like Michigan State is endzone averse. The Spartans are putting up a healthy 43.1 ppg, good enough for seventh in the nation, and by S&P+ they are better through the air than on the ground, especially on standard passing downs. I see no reason why the Spartans couldn't grind the Bears down with runs up the middle, relying on a perfectly capable passing attack to get them out of third and long should they fall behind in down and distance.
Despite participation ribbons issued by BXII Commissioner, Bob Bowlsby, don't the Bears have the better claim to be the Big Twelve's "One True Champion?" If so, should Baylor have gotten the nod for the final playoff spot? If not, why?
Brent: In the SEC and the NFL (and I would assume all the other conferences too), if two teams have the same record, set tiebreakers are used to determine which team wins the division/gets playoff spot. The first tie breaks is always the two team's head to head record. Obviously, going by conventional wisdom isn't always the best idea, but in this case I believe it is. Baylor beat TCU head to head, and the two teams have the same record. Therefore, Baylor should be Big 12 champ, and there's no gray area. While I think that would have helped Baylor's case, I still believe Ohio State was the right pick for the playoffs. Until the Big 12 implements a championship game, I believe that should severely penalize any team from their conference. It is totally unfair for the top teams to have to play another game against the next best teams in their conference (a game in which they probably cannot go up the rankings by winning, but will go down by losing) while the Big 12 teams do not. In a twelve game season with so much importance placed on not losing, having to play one extra game is huge. So, no, Baylor should not have been in the playoffs regardless.
OWB: Absolutely, they have the better claim. Given the Big 12's round-robin format in which everyone plays everyone, there really shouldn't be a question as to who the champion is. The posturing about the co-championship was bet-hedging by Bowlsby, and a fool's errand at that. Had the Big 12 thrown its weight behind Baylor, there's a (slightly fatter than slim) chance Alabama would be playing the Bears in the semi. I can understand the other side of the argument, as I agree TCU probably has the more "complete team." But what does that eye-test really mean? If the Frogs couldn't beat Baylor on the field, how can anyone question that Baylor was the best team...even if only in that game, on that field, on that day? We begin the slide down a slippery slope when we allow on-field results to be trumped by perception, which is what would have happened if TCU had leapt over Baylor. It's not unprecedented to have a team ranked above the team that beat it, but yet, there's no reason that I can see that Baylor didn't deserve the Big 12 title, fair and square.
Even if Baylor had been the Big 12 Champion, I don't know that would have been enough to lock up the fourth playoff seed. Honestly, in a battle between Ohio State and Baylor (at least in terms of fan base, viewership numbers, tradition), I just can't see the powers-that-be selecting Baylor over the Buckeyes. I know, I know, the new system is supposed to be devoid of that kind of favoritism, but real talk...it's not. The selection committee didn't just bump OSU up because of the Big 12 squabble, there were some measurables they took into account, even if one is reluctant to partially pin the move on inherent favoritism.
For what it's worth, had Baylor ended up in the fourth seed, they would have faced an Alabama defense that could have kept their high-powered attack in check while matching them on the scoreboard offensively. Be careful what you wish for, Bears.
Ben: Baylor is the Big 12 Champion. If you listen to the news you know that executive orders have been all the rage lately, and that may have prompted Bob to assume powers he doesn't have. But the rules as written value head to head match ups. And those rules said, "no." Still, Baylor should not be in the playoffs. "We played every team in our conference!" they say. Great! Have a cookie!
Taking the teams in the playoffs one by one: Alabama won seven of eight conference games in a superior conference and then played a ninth in the SEC championship game. They also beat West Virginia. If WVU counts for Baylor, it should count for Alabama for an equivalent of a tenth "conference" game with nine wins. Oregon played nine regular season games vs. PAC12 opponents with a tenth in the championship and threw in MSU to boot. That's eleven vs. the Power Five. FSU played the Citadel. Every other opponent - nine regular season ACC (I'm counting Notre Dame without fully grasping the nature of their ACC affiliation), a championship game, Oklahoma State, and Florida - came from the Power Five. Add that they should be inviolate because no matter how much they struggled, they emerged undefeated from a power conference. Finally, the party crasher. Though the Virginia Tech game remains a head scratcher, including the Big 10 Championship Game, OSU holds nine conference wins and beat two respectable teams in Navy and Cincinnati.
If you would replace any of the above with a team that went 8-1 in conference, beat hapless SMU, plucky but non-bowl eligible Buffalo, and FCS Northwestern State I would remind you that in addition to an easier slate of opponents, Baylor got an extra bye week.
What is our final score, and which unit has the advantage that decides this game?
Brent: This one is a shootout. Neither team will be able to slow down the other, but a couple of Michigan States drives will stall as Baylor's trio of receivers take over the game. I think Baylor wins 52-41.
OWB: Because of Baylor's spectacular offense, and terrible defense, this will be a high scoring affair. Something like 49-35 Baylor sounds about right. The Baylor offense is the difference, as it is just too multiple and explosive for the Spartans' plodding defenders.
Ben: I think Michigan State wins 45-30 but I can see this being a blowout either way. How's that for noncommittal? Called your bookies yet?
As for which unit makes the biggest difference, I'm thinking it's the MSU defensive line. If they can reliably stuff the run with minimal support the rest of the defense will be free to limit Bryce Petty and Co.'s options. If they can't, expect Petty to make life hell on the defensive backfield.
There is one more unit that could weigh in heavily on the outcome of this game. The referee crew has, as of this writing, yet to be announced. At least I can't find out who the crew is from Google, and whatever intern got stuck manning @CottonBowlGame has yet to respond to my inquiries. If an SEC or ACC crew gets the call, we should expect a decently run game. If a PAC 12 crew gets assigned, all bets are off - Dantonio gets ejected in the second quarter for violating the infield fly rule and Baylor wins 5-3 in penalty kicks, for all I know.