We wrap up RBR's coverage of the (non-playoff) New Year's Six in a game that, a month ago, looked like a National Semifinal. Despite the snubbing of TCU, and Ole Miss' record, both of these squads could easily be Top Four when all is said and done. Parker Simmons, Wes Bulgarella, and Ole Whistlebritches give you the skinny.
The Chick-Fil-A Bowl is back to its former vestiges as the CFA Peach Bowl (we won't count last season's Duke-A&M Game.) That's pretty cool, and, as part of its return to glory, there is a fantastic matchup between top ten teams, Ole Miss and TCU. Ignoring the record, when viewed through the advanced stats, these teams are comparable. Are they, really? Or has one team done something to distinguish itself over the other?
Parker: Ah yes, the triumphant return of the Peach Bowl. It's good to have you back. Ole Miss-TCU is going to be a fantastic game, as both are clearly top ten football teams. The Rebels are built to be able to contain the HUNH Air Raid schemes that TCU employs, as we saw when they absolutely dominated the Aggies in College Station. However, TCU's defense ain't too shabby either. The Horned Frogs have been gutted at times this year, but Gary Patterson is a great defensive football coach and he will have plenty of time to prepare for an Ole Miss team that relies on Bo Wallace, M.D., to move the ball effectively.
TCU's offense vs. the Ole Miss defense is clearly the match-up everyone wants to see. The Horned Frogs' ability to create run-pass conflicts for opposing players makes them very difficult to stop. Ole Miss will have their hands full defending them, but with the secondary that the Rebels have, it makes the task a whole lot easier. Also, the Rebels' preferred 4-2-5 defense is one that allows them to avoid a lot of the weaknesses that packaged plays, of which TCU runs many of, can exploit.
I think one major difference between the two teams is that TCU may come out really flat. Similarly to what happened with Alabama a year ago, TCU's players may not be nearly as excited for this game as the Ole Miss players will be, which is always crucial in bowl games.
Wes: TCU, in my opinion, made the most compelling case out of any of the three teams on the bubble to be in the College Football Playoff. Notwithstanding the fourth quarter collapse in Waco, TCU largely dominated their schedule in probably the second best conference in the nation. While the defense has been suspect at times throughout the season (see: fourth quarter in Waco), the offense has been an absolute juggernaut (they haven't been held to less than 30 points the entire season!).
Ole Miss, on the other hand, has been a bit of a head-scratcher this season. In what seems to be the opposite of TCU, Ole Miss features an oft-discussed dominant defense with an offense that is streaky at best. Ole Miss's last two games are a perfect example of what the Rebel offense can (or can't) do. In Fayetteville, the offense was completely terrible: rushing for 63 yards, turning the ball over six (!) times, and scoring zero points. The next week, against Mississippi State in Oxford, the Ole Miss offense was outstanding. The Rebels gained 532 yards against the Bulldogs, were relatively balanced (327 passing yards, 205 rushing yards), and scored 31 points against a very good Mississippi State defense. The key to this offense (more on this later) is the play of Bo Wallace.
So, in short, yes, I think TCU stands out when previewing this matchup because the Horned Frogs are probably the most deserving team that was left out of the inaugural College Football Playoff Disaster.
OWB: Statistically, the two teams compare quite well, which is somewhat surprising, actually. I don't think we really think of these teams as being peers, given their respective specialties and strengths. While stats only tell part of the story, I do think that the Frogs have a fine, well-rounded football team that could at least be competitive in the SEC, even if not a contender for the league championship.
That said, I don't know that they would see the same level of offensive success against defenses in the SEC West. For example, would TCU run roughshod over an SEC West also-ran like Arkansas? Remember, this is the team that struggled with Kansas...Kansas, marinate on that for a minute. It's not whether they could beat Ole Miss or Mississippi State in a one-off neutral field game, but whether they could beat Ole Miss after playing Arkansas, with LSU on the horizon. Ole Miss has proven it has that kind of staying power, or at least it did this season.
True, Ole Miss showed moments of wavering, usually tied to erratic play from the quarterback position and the offense's inability to generate a consistent running game. But the Ole Miss defense is the real deal, and it is that which distinguishes Ole Miss as the better of the two. TCU simply doesn't meet a defense in the Big 12 like the one fielded by the Rebels, and the Ole Miss offense can be equally as potent as the Frogs', especially before the Laquon Treadwell injury.
Make your best case for why TCU should have been included in the playoffs, and which of the four finalists you would omit.
Parker: Well, I personally don't think TCU should have made the playoffs. If I had to make the argument though, I would say that TCU played the toughest regular season schedule of the three (Ohio State and Baylor) and had the best loss. Ohio State would definitely be the team they would replace, because there is no way Alabama, Oregon, or Florida State would have been left out.
Wes: As I stated earlier, TCU deserves to be in the College Football Playoff for dominating their schedule in the Big XII, the second most difficult conference in college football, and only losing to a very good Baylor team on the road. TCU is without a doubt the best team in the Big XII and, in my opinion, when there is confusion at the top among which teams are the most deserving to be in the playoff, the committee should determine the field by selecting the best team from each of the best conferences. With that being said, I think our friends in Columbus should have been left out. Ohio State cruised through their B1G schedule (including brutal matchups Illinois, Indiana, and a tight seven point victory at Minnesota), but I am personally not all that impressed when a team like Ohio State, with superior talent at every position, beats Rutgers 56-17. What's more, Ohio State lost to an incredibly mediocre Virginia Tech team early in the season.
Furthering my case against Ohio State in the playoff is the injury to QB J.T. Barrett. I get that Cardale Jones led the Buckeyes to a resounding beatdown of Wisconsin in the B1G Championship game, but that's an awfully small sample size. Is Ohio State still the fourth best team in the country, over TCU and Baylor, with Cardale Jones under center? In my opinion, I find it very hard to make a case for Ohio State over TCU considering the circumstances.
OWB: TCU's claim to a playoff seed begins with a successful claim that the Frogs are the true champion of the Big 12. Personally, I would find such a claim ridic, as they lost to Baylor on the field, fair and square. But let's say I can overlook that point for a moment. TCU does have a more well-rounded team than Baylor, as the Frog offense can score with the best of them and the defense is much better than it is generally given credit for being. Baylor's offense is great, yes...but that defense is a cotdang tire fire. So many holes, so little time.
While I think Baylor would have a chance at a semi-final win in the current four-team seeding with a favorable match-up, I don't think there's any world in which I could imagine them winning the championship. They can't out race-car Oregon, Bama's defense would shut that spread ish down, and FSU would fall behind by 40 in the first half thanks to nine interceptions by the Little Baby Jameis in the Manger before coming back to win in the second half on the strength of Winston's 44-of-45 passing with 11 touchdowns. (On a side note, Jimbo Fisher was recently seen at the gravesites of Marie Leveau and Dr. John with candles and live chickens, so make of that what you will.) Conversely, I could see TCU hanging with FSU or Oregon, though they'd have trouble competing for four quarters against Alabama's skilled depth on both sides of the ball.
So given the eye-test, and forgetting that TCU lost to Baylor, let's say the Frogs get into the top 4. Who gets the boot? The easy guess would be Ohio State. And that's fair, as the Buckeyes lost to lowly Virginia Tech. I don't think anyone could objectively say TCU has a better, more whole team at the moment than Oregon or Alabama. FSU is an interesting study, however. They can't claim a significantly better strength of schedule, and the teams are similar in that they largely rely on the play of one individual to elevate them to championship status. Sure, FSU is probably the deeper team, and they'd like win a head-to-head, but they have struggled more often than the Frogs in 2014. I'm not saying the Frogs are better than FSU, or that one can drub out an undefeated conference champion from a power conference in favor of a one loss team. I'm just sayin', one could make the argument.
Trevone Boykin has ridden his arms, legs, and a suspect Big Twelve to All-American status. But, it's safe to say that he's not seen a secondary as athletic, or a defensive pass rush, as good as Ole Miss. Can these units bottle up Boykin, and make the game a lower-scoring affair, or is the revamped TCU offense simply too good?
Parker: This will be the key factor in this game. Ole Miss has so much speed defensively, that they can run with anyone TCU puts on the field. Air Raid teams like to spread the field with receivers, but the problem with doing that is that they have to rely on their offensive line to be able to beat the opposing defensive line nearly every time. If you have four wide receivers and a running back, you leave your five lineman alone to block. Ole Miss can take advantage of that better than anyone TCU has played this year, as they have plenty of strength and speed in their front. The Rebel defensive line is very good at getting penetration and pressuring the quarterback. If TCU has to commit extra help to block the big guys up front, Ole Miss can unleash their speedy linebackers on them.
Wes: I don't think any defense would be able to make a game against TCU a low-scoring affair. The Horned Frog offense is going to get yards and put up points, but the Rebels are going to have to control the tempo of the game, hold TCU to field goals, and force turnovers if they want to stay in the game. The Ole Miss defensive line, featuring behemoths like Robert Nkemdiche and D.T. Shackleford, have been good at disrupting opponents' offensive lines and getting to the quarterback, but they have a unique task against TCU. The Rebel defensive line is going to have to contain Boykin, forcing him to throw the ball from within the pocket. Boykin will destroy you when he can improvise, dancing behind the line of scrimmage looking for open receivers or making plays with his legs in the open field. The Rebel secondary is going to have to do their best to make open-field tackles and keep the TCU receivers in front of them. That being said, I see the TCU offense being too good for the Ole Miss defense.
OWB: Trevone Boykin is a phenom, there's no doubt about that. He has been spectacular, especially in the latter half of the season as he's settled into his role as the primary producer on offense and a team leader at the quarterback position. While his passing could still be viewed as suspect at times, he does enough within the confines of the Frog offensive system to maintain balance, which is important in keeping defenses off-kilter and exposed to his strengths.
That said, he isn't facing a Big 12 defense in the Peach Bowl, but rather an Ole Miss defense that has been among the best in the SEC West this season. Ole Miss is a complete defense: the Rebels are effective against the run, athletic in the secondary (Senquez Golston is a beast) and a terror in the pass rush (Can you say Nkemdiche?...no?...me neither, but I can spell it.) While Boykin has shown
considerable dual-threat flair this year, Ole Miss has the type of unit to shut that down effectively. Even with the requisite amount of talent though, the Rebel defense will have its work cut out against Boykin and the TCU offense. The best thing that could happen for Ole Miss would be to make a few impact plays early on - an interception or two would do the trick - to rattle Boykin, as he doesn't have a lot of experience leading an offense in a high-profile bowl game. Adversity could be more than he could handle on the big stage, as he's untested. If the Akbars can trap Boykin and limit his impact, they have a good chance of keeping the Frogs' other weapons in check with their stellar defense.
The "Good Bo - Bad Bo" dichotomy has been around as long as Wallace has suited up for the Rebels. Assuming the "Good Bo" of the Egg Bowl and Alabama wins shows up, does Ole Miss win this one? Or, can TCU's undervalued defense enough to earn a victory for the Horned Frogs?
Parker: If "Good Bo" shows up I fully expect an Ole Miss victory. Wallace just needs to take what the defense gives him, play smart, don't turn the ball over, and get the Rebels to 24-28 points. I really think Ole Miss will be able to contain TCU's offense. I'm expecting this game to be a lower scoring affair than what some others believe it will be. If "Good Bo" shows up, and TCU comes out flat, we could be looking at a double digit win for Ole Miss. Conversely, if "Bad Bo" rears his ugly head and TCU comes out looking to prove themselves, the Horned Frogs could win by two touchdowns. I will go with something more in the middle, and predict a 27-23 Ole Miss victory.
Wes: Thing is, "Good Bo" Wallace ain't all that good. Take away his Stephen Garcia moment against Alabama, and the "Good Bo" that we've seen this year has included a three interception performance against Boise State, a 178-yard passing performance against the Swiss cheese that is the Texas A&M defense, and a crucial fumble in an otherwise Herculean performance against Auburn (again, Swiss cheese). So, if the Bo Wallace that showed up against Alabama comes to play, Ole Miss has a chance to put up points against an average Big XII defense, but how many points can you expect from Ole Miss? And how many are needed to win the game? I think TCU puts up at least 35, can you expect Ole Miss to score that many? Hint: probably not; the Rebels scored 35 points or more only twice in SEC play. Now, if the average "Good Bo" shows up, the one that completed 43.3% of his passes against Mississippi State, the Ole Miss offense could stall out, Bo could throw some picks, and TCU could have the ball early, often, and with good field position. I may be sipping on the Haterade a little too much, but I don't see Ole Miss keeping this one close. Final: Ole Miss 21, TCU 42.
OWB: The Good Bo - Bad Bo meme is real, as he looks like a Heisman contender at times, and a 3A high school second-stringer at others. Chief among Bo's ills is his decision-making. Against Alabama, he was able to effectively toe the line of throwing the perfect pass into tight coverage rather than throwing interceptions. However, with Bo, that is simply not a sure thing from game to game. It has been that way through much of his career, and I don't expect that dynamic to change in this bowl game.
You just can't predict which Bo will show in the bowl (you like that?)
The Frog defense is indeed undervalued nationally, but it is a talented unit to say the least. TCU should be able to generate decent pressure in the pass rush, but the Ole Miss offensive line is fairly stout and will control a good bit of that. The TCU secondary is decent, but Vince Sanders and some of the younger Ole Miss receiving weapons should be able to help Bo out. The problem for Ole Miss could come in its inability to generate a ground game. If the Rebels were more balanced, I'd give the Frogs little chance of controlling the game.
Interestingly enough, the running game is part of the Good Bo - Bad Bo dynamic, to be honest. No quarterback, no matter whether it's Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota or Bryce Petty, is all good all the time. All passers make mistakes and throw into coverages, all QB's throw interceptions and make bad decisions. However, when an offense is more balanced, there is a greater chance for a team to mitigate the damage an off-day quarterback can do. If, however, he is helming nearly every offensive play for your team, the chances of that impact becoming significant are high. Bo really has no running game to bail him out (which is a shame because the O line is really quite talented), and near the end of the season, the loss of Treadwell made the offensive options even more limited. The key in this game for Ole Miss will be keeping Bo live by running the ball effectively, as he is a much better quarterback historically when the Rebels can mount a ground assault.