Maybe I missed it before, but today I noticed ESPN has added Football Power Index data to each college football team's schedule page. There's some cool info there about projected records, odds of winning out, odds of winning the conference, strength of schedule, and so on.
A few observations:
Florida State has a 40.3% chance of winning out, followed by Oregon at 12.6% and Marshall--with the easiest schedule in FBS--at 9.2%. Alabama leads the SEC with a 3.5% chance of winning out.
Florida State also leads the country in Projected Wins at 12.1 followed by Oregon (11.1), Marshall (10.7), Ohio State (10.5), and Alabama (9.9).
Alabama has a 22.6% chance of winning the SEC followed by South Carolina (17.9), Georgia (17.1), and Auburn (16.3).
Arkansas, which plays six preseason Top 25 teams, including two in the Top 5, has the 4th-toughest schedule in the country. There are eight SEC teams in the list of top 25 toughest schedules: Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee, South Carolina, Texas A&M, LSU, and Missouri. Bama's schedule is ranked 28th-hardest.
The Pac-12 has by far the toughest schedules in football. Five of the top 6 and nine of the Top 20 hardest schedules belong Pac-12 teams, and the easiest Pac-12 schedule, Washington State's, is still the 37th-toughest in FBS.
On the flip side, the 17 easiest schedules among the Power 5 conferences belong to ACC and Big 10 teams.
Top 25 FPI Ratings:
- #1 Florida State (32.2)
- #2 Oregon (28.5)
- #3 Auburn (24.3)
- #4 Alabama (24.1)
- #5 UCLA (22.6)
- #6 Ohio State (21.5)
- #7 Oklahoma (20.3)
- #8 Stanford (20)
- #9 South Carolina (19.8)
- #10 Texas A&M (19.6)
- #11 Baylor (19.6)
- #12 Georgia (19.5)
- #13 USC (19.4)
- #14 LSU (18.2)
- #15 Clemson (17.6)
- #16 Arizona State (17.5)
- #17 Mississippi St (17.4)
- #18 Michigan (16.3)
- #19 North Carolina (15.6)
- #20 Ole Miss (15.4)
- #21 Oklahoma State (15.1)
- #22 Florida (15)
- #23 Wisconsin (13.8)
- #24 Michigan State (12.3)
- #25 Texas (12.2)
Odds of Winning Out:
- Florida State: 40.3%
- Oregon: 12.6%
- Marshall: 9.2%
- Ohio State: 7.6%
- Oklahoma: 6.2%
- Baylor: 5.3%
- Houston: 3.7%
- Alabama: 3.5%
- BYU: 1.9%
- Auburn: 1.4%
Most Projected Wins:
- Florida State: 12.1
- Oregon: 11.1
- Marshall: 10.7
- Ohio State: 10.5
- Alabama: 9.9
- Oklahoma: 9.6
- Baylor: 9.6
- Houston: 9.3
- Wisconsin: 9.3
- UCLA: 9.2
Odds of Winning Each Conference:
ACC
- Florida State: 73%
- North Carolina: 10.1%
Big 12:
- Oklahoma: 42.3%
- Baylor: 33.2%
Big Ten:
- Ohio State: 40.9%
- Wisconsin: 21.9%
Pac-12:
- Oregon: 53.3%
- UCLA: 20.2%
SEC:
- Alabama: 22.6%
- South Carolina: 17.9%
- Georgia: 17.1%
- Auburn: 16.3%
- Florida: 6.2%
- Texas A&M: 4.8%
- Mississippi St: 4.7%
- LSU: 4.6%
- Ole Miss: 2.9%
- Missouri: 2.3%
- Kentucky: 0.3%
- Tennessee: 0.2%
- Arkansas: 0.1%
- Vanderbilt: 0%
Strength of Schedule:
- 1. UCLA
- 2. Utah
- 3. California
- 4. Arkansas
- 5. Washington St
- 6. USC
- 7. West Virginia
- 8. Notre Dame
- 9. Stanford
- 10. Auburn
- 11. Texas
- 12. Arizona State
- 13. Virginia
- 14. Arizona
- 15. Ole Miss
- 16. Colorado
- 17. Tennessee
- 18. South Carolina
- 19. Kansas
- 20. Rutgers
- 21. Texas A&M
- 22. LSU
- 23. Missouri
- 24. Iowa State
- 25. Oregon
- 28. Alabama
- 29. Georgia
- 32. Kentucky
- 33. Florida
- 42. Vanderbilt
- 46. Mississippi St
Average Strength of Schedule Rankings:
- Pac-12: 13.6
- SEC: 24.2
- Big 12: 27.3
- Big 10: 48.4
- ACC: 49.4
Average Win Totals:
- SEC: 7.5
- Pac-12: 7.1
- Big 10: 7.0
- ACC: 7.0
- Big 12: 6.7
Average FPI Rating:
- SEC: 14.6
- Pac-12: 13.5
- Big 12: 9.8
- ACC: 8.1
- Big Ten: 7.8
- IND: 4.0
- AAC: -1.3
- MW: -4.6
- C-USA: -9.1
- MAC: -9.8
- Sun Belt: -14.1
USA Today Top 25 Teams Strength of Schedule:
- #1 Florida State (41)
- #2 Alabama (28)
- #3 Oklahoma (31)
- #4 Oregon (25)
- #5 Auburn (10)
- #6 Ohio State (38)
- #7 UCLA (1)
- #8 Michigan State (52)
- #9 South Carolina (18)
- #10 Baylor (48)
- #11 Stanford (9)
- #12 Georgia (29)
- #13 LSU (22)
- #14 Wisconsin (63)
- #15 USC (6)
- #16 Clemson (51)
- #17 Notre Dame (8)
- #18 Arizona State (12)
- #19 Ole Miss (15)
- #20 Texas A&M (21)
- #21 Kansas State (30)
- #22 Nebraska (64)
- #23 North Carolina (39)
- #24 Texas (11)
- #25 Washington (37)