FanPost

Weekly Thoughts: Pre-Season Edition

First off, the preseason is weird for me. I’m a very analytical guy, but there is very little to analyze yet. However, I’m starting a fancy new job next month, and so won’t be able to write up long posts like I did last year. Instead, I humbly present my thoughts and musings going into 2014.

Alabama Thoughts-

Offensive perspective:

-For all the talk about how great our team was last year, before "letting up" at the end, let’s remember something. As of the Georgia State game, our offensive conference rankings were:
Rushing offense: 13th

Rushing TDs: 13th

Total Offense: 13th

Total Offensive TDs: 12th

I tried to harp on this a bit as a word of warning, but the 4 game stretch that followed (Georgia State, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee) was incredibly weak, and basically meaningless. Though we were a statistical juggernaut by the time we played LSU, it was only a paper tiger. Unfortunately, it also meant that our players failed to realize how much better they could be, and it probably led them to checking out after the LSU game. Even that game was deceptive, as LSU had perhaps its worst defense in years.

Even though our offense was statistically great, we had the talent and schedule to be by far the most statistically dominant offense of all time. When you look at our performance relative to the level of the competition, I think you’ll see why we had a change at offensive coordinator.

Quarterbacks:

-First off, I’m all for seeing both of these guys play. Sims and Coker are very different athletes, and bring very different feature sets to the field. Given our depth at running back and wide receiver, it is entirely possible to have different packages with different personnel depending on the QB. Pair Sims with Henry, Black, and Jones and you have a powerful inside zone read, with dangerous open field receivers for a run-pass threat. Pair Coker with Drake, White, Cooper, and Foster, and you have a prototype NFL shotgun package.

- However you do it, the key is that the two quarterbacks should not run the same offense.

-Having a wider variety of play calls makes it much harder for opponents to scheme against you.

-The tradeoff is that it is also much harder for you to practice effectively.

-Personally, I was rooting for Coker. Why? The same reason I rooted for Phillip Simms over AJ. I know what Blake Sims brings to the table. If Coker came in and soundly beat him out, that was a sign that our quarterback play had improved. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened, so now I have no favorite.

-Regardless, if they have Blake Sims running a pure pro-style offense I’ll scream. You don’t take a runner like Sims and not let him run.

-Especially since Coker means you can afford an injury. That’s a huge luxury many are missing.

TEs:

-We did not use our tight ends last year. Vogler had 8 receptions. Howard had 14. The "blocking" tight end Williams had 24 in 2012. Now, there are differences of opinion as to why Vogler has so few receptions. It may be that he’s a good receiver, and Nuss just doesn’t feature him. It may be, as I have controversially stated, that Vogler may just not be all that good. Regardless, it just doesn’t seem sane to use Vogler and Howard as in-line blockers, even more than we did with Williams.


If you haven’t, take a look at my blocking breakdown from the Ole Miss game. Vogler just wasn’t very effective as a blocker: http://alabama.247sports.com/Board/116/Contents/First-Half-Blocking-Breakdown-Very-Detailed-with-Pictures-22906070

(Fun fact: at 6’7" 265 Vogler is almost exactly the same size as Lamichael Fanning and now the tallest player on the team, so that may be a sizeable reason for him playing. Pun intended.)

This points to a bigger theme: our tight ends have been a bit of a weak spot for our team. There have been 11 tight ends drafted from the SEC in the past 4 years. We had two, in Williams and Smelley, though both were drafted in the 7th round, and both have been moved to a position other than tight end. I say this to point out that our expectations for a tight end have become rather low. We see Williams as the high point for us in recent years at the position, when (in truth) he’s only a marginal NFL talent.

This, then, begs the question. If our tight ends really are mediocre, then why do we use them so much? Honestly, I place the blame on Nuss. McElwain made good use of the pieces available to him. In 2008-2011, we consistently had a strong offensive line, big tight ends, mediocre receivers and an average quarterback. Using tight ends was a way to force offensive alignments while maintaining a run-first offense. In 2012 and 2013, our quarterback and receiver play improved dramatically. Still, Nuss used the same basic formations as his predecessor. In 2012, this worked, leveraging Williams and a phenomenal offensive line to great success, particularly when we went with the run-first mentality that McElwain had used.

But formations aren’t universally successful. We did not have the personnel to have two, much less three, tight ends tight to the line of scrimmage on a regular basis in 2013. Two tight end sets traded Norwood and White for Vogler and Howard.

The worst part of all this was, again, Howard. Howard had 300% of Vogler’s 2013 yardage on just 75% more receptions. Howard’s abilities as a receiver meant that an opposing offense had to respect him any time he flexed out. This gave him the power to force a defensive formation in a way that McElwain would have killed for. Yet, Nuss –rarely- flexed him wide. While I understand that we had trouble blocking on the edge, keeping Howard as an in-line blocker only meant that we had 1 more player to deal with.

Any player forced into coverage is a player blocked. Kiffin has a powerful tool in Howard to force an OLB away from the line of scrimmage every play. My hope is just that we actually use him.

Being Multiple:

-This leads into another point. When we came out at the start of last year, I think Nuss intended to use Fowler as he did in the 2012 Michigan game. Offset I formations, lead blocking, all that jazz. When Fowler showed signs of not being 100%, we just gave up any attempt at creativity. Why didn’t we use multiple tailbacks? Why didn’t we use 5-wide sets? We had a ton of depth and talent at the skill positions, and we almost always had either a 2-wide or 3-wide set, with 1 or 2 tight ends. Judging by comments from practice, and from how Kiffin used Bush and White in tandem at USC, I think we’ll finally see our talent at the skill positions put to good use.

Corner Play:

-I’m thinking of a corner. He was moved to corner in the second year with the program. He then became a starter due to a lack of depth. In a pivotal play against our biggest rival, he made a crucial mental error that likely cost us the game.
That corner: Javier Arenas, who faked a blitz rather than jamming Early Doucet in the 2007 LSU game, allowing the game’s pivotal conversion.
Let’s not all give up on Cyrus too quickly.

Defending the Edge:

-That said, I still firmly believe that our corners were easily our weakest link last year. We just weren’t very good defending the edge. Take a look at the first two drives from the Oklahoma game (an outside pass is a pass caught outside the hashes) :
Outside pass– Jackson, 7 yards

Inside run – 1 yard

Inside run – 3 yards

Outside pass – Jackson, 5 yards

Inside run – 0 yards

Outside pass- Belue, 8 yards

Outside pass – Screen, 9 yards

Inside run – 4 yards

Inside pass – Collins, Intercepted

Outside pass – Collins, 45 yards, TD

Outside run – 7 yards

Outside pass – Belue, 7 yards

Outside pass- Williams, 5 yards

Outside pass – Depriest, 7 yards

Outside pass – Jackson, 5 yards

Outside run – 12 yards

Outside pass – overthrown, incomplete

Outside pass – overthrown, incomplete

Qb scramble – 10 yards

Inside run – 2 yards

Outside pass – 3 yards

Outside pass – Clinton-Dix, 8 yards, TD

Inside runs – 5 for 10 yards, 2.0 ypc

Outside runs – 2 for 19 yards, 9.5 ypc

Inside pass – 0/1 for 0 yards, INT

Outside pass – 11/13 for 109 yards, 2 TD

Oklahoma absolutely targeted us on the edges, and it worked. They moved the sticks largely via short throws underneath the corners. 50% of their passes were thrown within 3 yards of the LOS, but poor tackling meant there was normally 5-10 yards after the catch. Oddly enough, both touchdowns were against the safeties.

Defensive Line:

-The nose guard position is oddly the greatest statistical tell for an Alabama team from 2008-2013.

- We have won the national title every year that we had a SR starting nose guard.

- We have failed to win the national title every other year, each with a JR nose guard.

- This year, we have a SR starting nose guard in Ivory.

- Basically, the 3-4 hinges on the nose. If the ILBs aren’t needed against the dive, you can unleash hell.

- Robinson had more sacks last year (5.5) than our two outside players in Pagan and Hubbard combined (5.0).

- This is very encouraging for the future, as it hints at the fact that our production could significantly increase even with the losses.

- Still, realize that Dee Ford had 10.5 sacks BY HIMSELF for Auburn last year, and that was after missing half the season. His loss leads me into a discussion of…

Auburn – College Football’s Biggest Question Mark:

Offense:

-Right now, it’s virtually impossible to tell how good Auburn is going to be. The reason? No one knows if Malzahn can do anything but "power run left." Auburn lived and died off running Mason behind Robinson and Kozan with Prosch as a lead blocker. Everyone, including us, had to adjust to stop it, and that was enough to make everything else click.

The problem is that every piece of that play is gone.

To be successful offensively, Auburn will have to find ways to keep teams off balance. One way they did that last year was through Grant. If you re-watch the Auburn tape, you’ll find that we stopped Auburn around halftime right when Grant came out. The reason was that we didn’t have to worry about the sweep, and could play the run. Auburn will likely lean even more on Grant and Marshall as edge runners to establish an inside run.

Also, Auburn will have to throw the ball. This is where it gets interesting. Marshall has the arm to be a successful quarterback, but it’s pretty rare to see someone like him make significant strides in accuracy year-over-year. Making reads is one thing, but pure ability to hit the open man isn’t a skill quickly taught.

Defense:

-Auburn was 98th in the country in passing defense in August/September last year. In December/January, facing their toughest completion, they were 51st. Why? The emergence of Dee Ford and Carl Lawson. Those two players led the team with 14.5 sacks, as many as the next 8 tigers combined.

-Remember, they didn’t play the first half of the season (due to injury and inexperience).

-They averaged a combined 2 sacks/game in Oct & Nov, which would have added up to 28 sacks if they had played the whole season!

-That dynamic meant that the team that struggled with LSU and Miss. St. early did not resemble the team that played TAM and Bama later.

-Much like Nick Fairley in 2010, only to perhaps an even greater degree, their ability to disrupt quarterbacks kept offenses in check and kept their defense from being exposed.

-Thus, I think Lawson’s injury may be the most impactful injury in college football this season. Without Lawson and Ford, Auburn’s best pass rusher is likely LaDarius Owens, and that drop-off may mean 9 wins rather than an SEC title.

-It seems like we say this every year, but depth on their defense is nonexistent.

-The DT position is solid, with Adams and Wright backed up by Blackson and Whitaker.

-DE now has no depth. Owens and Elijah Daniel (in place of Lawson) start ahead of JUCOs Lambert and Lawrence. Both JUCO players are currently slowed by injuries.

-LB has Frost and McKinzy are backed by freshmen in Tre Williams and Cam Toney.

-Star has Garrett (in place of Therezie, who’s out with eligibility issues) backed up by freshmen.

-CB is a big question mark. Holsey has been limited, Mincy has been limited, Reed has failed to seize a job after transitioning from WR, letting Jones slip into the lineup. Expect a revolving door from the four players through the first few games.

-S has Whitehead locked in, with Moncreif struggling to adapt from JUCO. Behind them are a JUCO in King and a converted RB in Ford. In truth, there’s a good chance a backup corner moves to S if there’s any injury

-Basically… they have enough DT’s to rotate, and enough CB’s to take an injury. There is a massive drop off with the second DL unit due to the DE’s. DE, LB, and Star will take significant drops in production with an injury.

LSU Rivalry – In Decline?


-The Saban/LSU rivalry was arguably the dominant storyline from 2008-2012. I noted before the 2013 game that the gap had increased significantly. Take a look at the recruiting rankings from the 247 composite:

2007: Alabama-12, LSU-4

2008: Alabama-3, LSU-11

2009: Alabama-3, LSU-1

2010: Alabama-5, LSU-7 (Current Redshirt Seniors)

2011: Alabama-1, LSU-7 (Current Seniors)

2012: Alabama-1, LSU-13 (Current Juniors)

2013: Alabama-1, LSU-6 (Current Sophomores)

2014: Alabama-1, LSU-2 (Current Freshmen)


In 2010 and 2011, when LSU last beat us, they had recruits from 2 recruiting classes ranked higher than ours. Now, they have none. 2014 should have been the year that LSU regained ground and pulled back up, with -10- players from LA in the top 100. Yet, they only signed 5. Also, unlike Alabama, the in-state players were the bulk of the class with 5/8 of their top recruits coming from in-state.

However, it is the 2012 class that is currently doing the most damage to LSU’s roster. Notably, LSU only signed 1 defensive linemen that year, a 4* player in Hunter, ending a streak of year after year of phenom linemen that goes back as far as I can remember.

The defensive tackles in particular are in bad shape, with the only Top247 DT on their roster is R. Freshman Greg Gilmore. With Lealaimatafao needing surgery following his game of "Weight Room Punch Out!!", the losses of Anthony Johnson and Ego Ferguson leave them dangerously thin at the position. Their DE Hunter is 241 pounds, and Rasco is 265. In order to bulk up, they will likely have to slide 275-pound RFR Herron from DE inside to DT. The big question mark is 290-pound Quentin Thomas. Thomas tore a bicep in training, but is attempting to play without surgery. Frankly, I think this is quietly an issue of desperate need, as LSU is in danger of being shockingly undersized on the DL.

Offensively, it’s even more of an overhaul than many think. 8 out of the top 11 receiving targets from last year are gone, including everyone with at least 10 receptions! Their starting quarterback will have been with the team for at most a year. These are not good things! The bright spot is theoretically the offensive line and Fournette, but let’s not forget that their line was a serious disappointment last year, and freshman tailbacks like Fournette virtually never stay healthy if forced to carry the load in the SEC.

Football is defined by the upperclassmen. Due to the massive early departures, LSU’s upperclassmen are the 2012 class, which was the lowest ranked LSU class in a decade. Athlon picked them to go 8-4, and I tend to agree. There is a real chance that they lose the opener against Wisconsin, and if the team gives up on them their team may actually go south in a hurry.

Tennessee:


-Poor Butch Jones. He took his licks in a brutal first season, brought in a good 2014 recruiting haul (though still only 5th in the conference), and now he gets this. They open with Utah State, who went 9-5 last year, fading late due to Chuckie Keeton being injured. Keeton is returning, expecting to be 100%, and presents a genuine threat to the young Vols. Next is Arkansas State, who gave Auburn a decent game before improving into an 8-5 finish. Then, Oklahoma. Then Georgia.

The first non-bowl team they play? Florida on October 4. It’s a strange world.

Considering that UT may have as few as 7! returning starters on offense and defense, including no returning linemen on either side of the ball(!), there is a real chance that Tennessee may miss a bowl game for the 4th consecutive year.



Final Thoughts:

- Ole miss may be the team on the way up. When you factor in 3 players coming back from injury, they have 15/22 returning starters. However, a weak line and RB corps may be their Achilles heel, as SEC teams never truly succeed without a strong running game.

- Returning QB’s by QB rating: Marshall (33rd), Wallace (51st), Smith (69th), Prescott (77th), Worley (DNR), Allen (DNR)

o The top 5 QBs, and all those with over a 150 rating, are gone.

o For all the hoopla, Prescott had only the 11th best rating in the SEC last year.

o I would wager money that 2 of the top 3 SEC ratings leaders this year will be new starters.

- Miss. St. quietly has major issues on the offensive line. Not only are they undergoing an overhaul, but 3 projected starters have been injured this fall.

o Again, I fail to see how Prescott is the great savior. I know people think he looked great, but Maxwell Smith at Kentucky was a higher ranked QB last year!

o Miss. St has averaged 12th in the conference in since they hired Mullen 2009.

§ They were 12th in the conference last year, too.

o So I also don’t buy that they will be better. They simply don’t have the talent.

- I don’t expect Texas A&M to be very good. They lost their starting QB, 3 of 4 leading receivers, 2 leading rushers, sack leader, and leader in tackles.

- South Carolina may have as few as 9 returning starters.

- Mizzou may have as few as 7! Talk about starting over, it’s hard to win with 15/22 new starters.

- Mason was a huge step back for Georgia in their bowl game.

o And it may be way too much for the run game to compensate with 4 new OL starters.

o Granted, the defense should be much improved with 10 returning starters.

o Also, getting Arkansas in the West is huge.

- Florida has only 2 returning offensive starters,

o But that’s because they have 5 offensive starters returning from injury!

o Factor that in, and they have a very respectable 14/22 returning starters.

o And it helps that many of them weren’t there for the disaster last year.

§ (Returning starters from a bad team isn’t always a good thing.)

- You should realize by now that it means the SEC East likely won’t be any better this season.

o Which means that the only good team, Florida, has to be a dark horse in the SEC.

- Arkansas, Vandy, and Kentucky are so far behind the talent curve as to be irrelevant in my view.

o Granted, Vandy made a smart move hiring a disciplinarian to follow a great recruiter.

Bold Predictions:

-Again, I don’t really have a darn clue until I have something to analyze, so consider my predictions strictly for-fun.

Ranking the SEC West

1: Alabama - There’s a 50% chance we lose to Florida or Auburn; Just better than the rest

2: Auburn – Very good chance they lose at Kansas State, depth will give out by Bama

3: Ole Miss – This is their zenith; Senior laden roster beats LSU

4: LSU – A mediocre season will put Miles once again on the hot seat

5: Miss. St. – Notable because I’m saying they will end up beating

6: Texas A&M – who will play much more like 2013 defense than the 2013 offense

7: Arkansas- There’s just no talent to do things like replace 5 of the front 7

Ranking the SEC East

1: Georgia – like 2011, may have 1 conf. loss in regular season, get smacked in SECCG

2: Florida – Good team will beat LSU, but lose to Bama, UGA, and FSU for an average 9-3 season

3: USC – Big dropoff from Florida, beats TAM early but drops AU, UGA, UF later

-Note that gives them the same record as UF because of scheduling.

4: Mizzou – Won’t resemble 2013, will drop first 3 SEC games (USC, UGA, UF). Lose another late.

5: Tennessee – Flip a coin here. UT will be awful, but at least they have a working QB.

6: Vandy – Lost whole secondary, will have to start 2 freshmen; Rivers from LSU may start at QB.

7: Kentucky – This team was abysmal last year. It would be huge if QB Smith gets healthy.

FanPosts are just that; posts created by the fans. They are in no way indicative of the opinions of SBN and the authors of Roll Bama Roll.