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BlogPoll Calling: Todd's Initial Top Ten

This year we'll be taking part in the BlogPoll, so every Monday we'll each be posting our initial thoughts on poll rankings and letting you guys either praise our genius or tear us a new one in the comments before submitting a final, unified ballot. I've got my initial Top 25 ready (though, without internets, it's been hell doing so), so over the next few days I'll be posting them for your perusal and/or criticism, while Nico will also be posting his. Once we've gotten your feedback and have put our heads together we'll come up with one ballot to submit. This should be a lot of fun, and we encourage you guys to post your own lists and arguments for or against certain team's inclusion each Monday since we'll take those into account while forming the final ballot. So, without further ado, my Top Ten.

1. Southern Cal

What I Like: What's not to like? 10 returning starters on defense, 6 on offense, and so much talented depth (seriously, seven Parade All-Americans in the backfield? That's ridiculous.) that the second team units could probably win the Pac-10 on their own.
What I Don't: USC has some tough road games on the schedule, with a trip to Nebraska the second game of the season, and conference games at Oregon and Cal, plus what should be an improved UCLA just itching for another chance to end the season on the upswing coming to visit. Also troubling were a few too many poor decisions by Booty and some key passes batted down at the end of the season last year. Couple that with two new starting wide receivers for him to get accustomed to, and those Parade All-Americans might be more important than you'd think.

If Booty can avoid games like these this year, it should be smooth sailing for the Trojans.
2. LSU

What I Like: A defense that should be just as solid as last year's unit, plus playmakers aplenty on offense, means this team could finally get over the proverbial hump and live up to both their expectations and potential. The schedule is favorable, with all of their quality opponents save our own beloved Tide coming to them this season.
What I Don't: Matt Flynn's hype is from a bowl game two seasons ago against a Miami team already well on it's way to utter implosion, and the solid defense and special teams of Virginia Tech in week two will go along way towards judging if he's an every week performer or a fluke. Also, Les Miles.

3. West Virginia

What I Like: Pat White, Steve Slaton, and Owen Schmitt all return to throw up some more gawdy rushing numbers, while super recruit Noel Devine joins them. The Big East is theirs to lose, and they'll be favored in all twelve contests this season, so if LSU and/or USC stumbles early on the 'Eers might find themselves atop the polls rather quickly.
What I Don't: That wacky 3-3-5 they run went haywire at the end of last season, surrendering a combined 193 points in their last six outings (counting the Gator Bowl win over Ga. Tech) and seeing the previously undefeated Mountaineers drop a game each to Louisville (34-44) and USF (19-24), while needing OT to top Rutgers and a come from behind rally in the Gator Bowl.

4. Michigan

What I Like: Henne and Hart are both back, as well as OT Jake Long, all of whom could have gone to the pros after last season. Also returning is leading receiver Mario Manningham, plus all four of their road games are winnable and arch-nemesis tOSU is in rebuilding mode when they visit Ann Arbor.
What I Don't: Last year's defense performed incredibly poorly against tOSU and in the Rose Bowl after playing lights out all season long, but the core of that group is gone as the defense loses seven starters (including four All-Big Ten selections). There are a couple of early tests for the Wolverines as well: Oregon comes to A2 the second week of the season, and Penn State looms large in week four. And let's not forget Jim Tressels apparent voodoo hold over Carr.

5. Oklahoma

What I Like: The offseason troubles, robbed of a win at Oregon, forever being the team on the receiving end of Boise's magical finish...man, it must have sucked to be a Sooner last year. This year, though, thinks should look up, with only the Red River Shootout in Dallas and a trip to Texas Tech posing a threat to an easy road to the Big 12 Title Game. The D returns nine starters and should be one of the best in the country, while depth at running back should make up for the loss of Adrian Peterson, and the top five receivers from last year all return.
What I Don't Like: Well, they do have to get past Texas, but unfortunately for them the Sooner QB outlook isn't as bright as the one in Austin. No one has really stepped up to replace Paul Thompson, while the loss of two All-Big 12 selections at DE (Ah You and Birdine) and Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Rufus Alexander at linebacker leaves the front seven without some key playmakers.

6. Florida State

What I Like: Much like ourselves, Seminoles fans have watched as inept playcalling cost a talented team capable of more stumble in grand fashion the past few years. All that changes with the arrival of new OC Jimbo Fisher from LSU, who should finally help this team live up to their potential. The schedule is rough, with road games against Clemson (week one, no less), Colorado, Alabama (Jacksonville), Virginia Tech, and Florida, but the 'Noles should come out on top of a down conference fairly handily.
What I Don't: I mentioned the road schedule, right? Plus, neither Drew Weatherford or Xavier Lee have shown any hint that they are the QBs to lead FSU back to the prominence of the '90s, but both will be battling for the starting job in the fall.

7. Georgia

What I Like: I've been pretty high on the Dawgs all offseason, and still think the SEC East is theirs to lose. The offense should be potent, with Matt Stafford finally coming around down the stretch last season and plenty of targets for him to throw to, and the defensive secondary will be a key strength for UGA even with Paul Oliver's unexpected departure.
What I Don't: The Dawgs open against Oklahoma State and welcome South Carolina to Athens in week two, and both of those teams bring rushers with them that could gash the untested front seven of UGA for ugly yardage. Combine that with an inexeperienced O-Line full of freshmen and JUCO transfers and UGA might be looking to dig themselves out of a 1-2 hole by the time they reach Tuscaloosa in week four.

Exactly.

8. Texas

What I Like: Before going down with an injury against K-State last season, Colt McCoy was one of the best QBs in the country. He should easily return to form this season, while WR Limas Sweed and RB Jamal Charles are serious weapons for the offense. The schedule is also exceptionally favorable, with OU the only real threat to keep the Longhorns from running the table in the Big 12.
What I Don't: The Texas D was a baffling affair last year, with the secondary earning awards and getting drafted as if all those passing yards they were routinely burned for were all in your imagination. The only starter returning in the secondary is SS Marcus Griffin, so there's a strong possibility the Longhorns will be on their heels a lot this season, too.

9. Virginia Tech

What I Like: The defense and special teams will be as solid as always, and there are eight starters back on that side of the ball. They get Florida State at home, and the ACC is so screwy from top to bottom that it's anyone's game (well, not anyone's...I'm looking at you Duke) at this point.
What I Don't: QB Sean Glennon isn't exactly what you'd call an All-American candidate. He's decent, but he's not going to win games by himself, and the Hokie's schedule won't be doing him any favors. Week two they travel to LSU, and they also face Clemson and Georgia Tech on the road. They get both FSU and Miami at home, but both are back to back at the end of the season when they should be playing their best ball of the year.

10. Penn State

What I Like: QB Morelli and the O-Line are far more experienced after a solid season last year (all their losses came to teams either ranked in the top ten at the time or who finished in the top ten), and the offense returns 8 starters including the top four receivers. The schedule is far more manageable this year, too, with the trip to Ann Arbor in week four looking like a big deciding factor in the race for the Big Ten title.
What I Don't: The D returns only four starters, and must replace Paul Posluszny, a 1st Team All-American at LB, but they are, after all, Linebacker U and have plenty of depth at that position.

A big key for the Nittany Lions this year would be avoiding more scenes like the one pictured above.

0 recs | Comment 14 comments

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wow....
that's quite a ranking for florida state.  i think they'll be better, but top 10???  hell they might start out 0-1.  the acc will probably be pretty weak again, but i just don't see them jumping into the top 10.

penn state may be an ambitious ranking too, though i think its more accurate than fsu.

good stuff though.  i appreciate a ranking with some balls.

by gerry dorsey on Aug 14, 2007 10:42 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I decided to go with FSU...
...in the Top Ten since they have a pretty legit shot at winning the ACC. I'm pretty sure that, by the time I get my final ballot together, Va Tech and FSU will swap places and so will Texas and OU.

by Todd on Aug 14, 2007 10:48 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

interesting for sure
love those preseason polls. can't say yours is far different than mine.

Couple of observations :

  • florida state. That is one hell of a road schedule, but they'll benefit i'm sure from getting amato back on defense, and jimbo on offense. They're going to be fun to watch this year. the acc is insane  what with new coaches everywhere, etc. I think vt will come out on top if only because they seem to have the best talent to stability ratio. One of the best backs in football running all over some decidedly porous defenses
  • lsu might be the 2nd best team in the country, but I bet they tank at least one, so tough to put them second. No question top 10 though, and likely sec champs. My problem with them is: qb / vt coming week 2 / i don't believe in their coach as you pointed out as well
bcs champinsip game i see is usc v wvu. i would say usc/um, but as i've been told, you cant spell 'Lloyd' without two L's

Hey - are you doing the weekly pick em again?

by crbama on Aug 14, 2007 11:00 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We're not sure on the pick 'em...
...since the site we used last season is no longer around. There are a few sites (ESPN, Yahoo Sports, etc) that let you set up a pick 'em tournament, but they pick the games so we wouldn't be able to do SEC only stuff.

by Todd on Aug 14, 2007 11:20 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

shame...
cause the site you used last year was by far the best i'd ever used

by crbama on Aug 14, 2007 12:33 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you were drinking
when you wrote this, weren't you?

FSU and Penn State in the Top Ten? Uff da.

Here's my release candidate 2 , full Top 25. I'd appreciate any comments.

Michigan, I can understand why they're a top ten team, but PSU that high it means they're going to finish 2nd in the Big 10 over Wisconsin and Ohio State. Wow.

Go Big Red Nebraska!
http://www.cornnation.com

by cornnation on Aug 14, 2007 1:25 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I see you have Wisconsin in the Top Ten...
You're not sold on Penn State, and I'm not sold on Wisconsin. They don't have a QB and there's no depth at RB (God help them if Hill gets injured).

by Todd on Aug 14, 2007 2:49 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I may poke my eyes out if the couch burners......
finish in the Top 3. They play a one game schedule, possibly two if you count Rutgers. Other than that your list looks pretty good. UGA and FSU may be a little bloated though. I can see a scenario this year where every team in the SEC East has 3 losses.

Here's our sites preseason rankings:
http://3rdsaturdayinblogtober.wordpress.com/tsib-polls/

by YourCrimsonDaddy on Aug 14, 2007 1:48 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sadly...
...that's why I have them so high. They'll finish the season undefeated with ease and take the Big East, and since the Big East is a BCS League (whether you agree or not), they're that high.

by Todd on Aug 14, 2007 2:46 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Penn State
We actually return six starters on defense.

Dan Connor
Sean Lee
Justin King
Anthony Scirrotto
Tony Davis
Josh Gaines

The guys on the defensive line have plenty of experience since PSU typically rotates 7-8 guys in and out of the game on a frequent basis. The defense will be the least of our worries.

Mind you not that I'm complaining with your #10 ranking. Thanks!

by Mike on Aug 14, 2007 2:58 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Todd's a thief...
Don't pretend you didn't take that analysis of Wisconsin from my very mouth!

But, 3 things

  1. PJ Hill's a tailback, not a RB. Lance Smith with cleared of charges of beating his GF (or some such nonsense, so he's back on the team and he showed moments of brilliance last year in relief of PJ, so I wouldn't say we're completely without depth.
  2. We actually have 2 quarterbacks, we're just not sure which one we'll use. That story's been about as closed as one can be since last spring. No one knows much, but I don't expect this to be a huge issue. It's not like any of our most recent QBs have been stellar.
Which leads me to..

3) This is Wisconsin we're talking about. We don't really need a QB. We're a running team. You could be under center and we'd do ok. We're based on pounding the run game and defense.

Finally, a completely unrelated point, but Todd you're crazy to put Penn State ahead of both Ohio State and Wisconsin. I personally find it hard to believe any two Big Ten teams will be Top Ten, but Penn State as a sleeper is just plain bonkers. The only scenario in which this plays out has all the other teams beating up on each other and Penn State escaping unscathed, which I just don't see happening.

by tristarscoop on Aug 14, 2007 3:19 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You mean...
...there was football analysis among all that Brewers talk? Seriously, though, a top ten ranking for Penn State may be extreme, but this is a provisional ballot after all. I still think they'll contend with Michigan for the Big 10, but only because it will be a down year for the conference.

by Todd on Aug 14, 2007 3:23 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i went
with Wisconsin higher because they don't need a great QB to run their offense.
Go Big Red Nebraska!
http://www.cornnation.com

by cornnation on Aug 14, 2007 5:08 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Football analysis?
What's this football you speak of?

My team is in first place and you want me to talk about football?! Silly, silly Todd.

The last time the Brewers did this well, I was 1! This isn't likely to happen again in my lifetime, so I'm enjoying it while it lasts.

by tristarscoop on Aug 15, 2007 12:22 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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