After months and months of WTF moments in the national championship race, things finally make sense. It may seem even that much crazier now that Oregon unexpectedly lost to Arizona earlier tonight, but in reality things are quite clear at the moment.
At this point, four teams control their own destiny: LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. It may seem odd that four teams control their own destiny, but that is because three teams will play each other in the final three weeks of the season. For those four teams, if you win out you are headed to the Big Easy. If you slip up anywhere, you're eliminated.
Essentially, the Big 12 champion is effectively guaranteed a spot in the BCS Championship Game at this point. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri all control their own destiny, and the team that wins out will finish with only one loss and will thus be headed to the national championship game. Now who will that be? Oklahoma is the favorite, of course, but it really doesn't matter at this point. It's just the point that all three of those teams won't lose one more game, and the Big 12 champion will be headed to New Orleans.
LSU is the number one team in the country right now, and are very much in control of their own destiny, too. And the most likely scenario is that they beat Ole Miss, Arkansas, and the SEC East representative in the SEC Championship Game and clinch a spot in the BCS title game. If LSU loses, however, then things would really open up. The two top one-loss teams remaining if LSU drops out will be Ohio State and West Virginia, and one of those two teams would get the nod if they win out.
So, at bottom, the Big 12 champion has clinched a spot in the BCS title game, we just don't know who that team is just yet. And they will face LSU if the Bayou Bengals win it. If LSU slips up somewhere, however, the Big 12 champion will go up against either West Virginia or Ohio State for all of the marbles in New Orleans.
Though it may seem confusing, the national championship race is looking fairly clear at the moment. We still don't know who will be playing in the title game, but at least we've reached a point to where we can watch the games as they unfold with a very accurate picture in mind of who will make the BCS title game based on the outcome of those games.