College Football Around the SEC: 11.11.15

We are trying something new this season: attempting to put a weight on records by measuring in certain factors. It is the first attempt (plus I barely made Cs in Statistics 101 & 102 when I was at the Capstone), so it may need some tweaking in the future.

Some of you had queries about it and I have some clarifications.

1. Week 1, Mississippi State played at Southern Miss. Should they get 0.5 point for winning on the road? No. No credit is awarded for winning at a cupcake's stadium.
2. Also Week 1, Texas A&M played in Houston but only received 0.125 point for neutral location. College Station to Houston is just under 100 miles. Phoenix to Houston is about 1,100 miles. More fans, more familiarity, easier commute.
3. So, why should they get any points at all? Even with all the advantages listed above, there is nothing like playing in your home stadium on your field with your locker room in front of your fans/students, etc. etc. etc.

A new tweak added is holding off on "Win over a ranked opponent = additional 0.5" until the end of the regular season. The logic (if there is any) is that a team ranked in September, may not be in December. [Hi Auburn!] By that time, perhaps I can come up with a good bonus equation.

Below is the key.

Win-Loss Record key:

• SEC - conference record
• P5 - non-SEC record against Power 5
• MM - record against Mid Majors/Non-Power 5 but projected bowl participant
  
• CC - record against cupcakes

Trying something new this season, we will attempt to put a weight on records.

• Win over P5 = 1 point
• Win over a ranked opponent = additional 0.5 (See above)
  
• Road win = 0.5
• Neutral site win = 0.25
• Win over a MM = 0.5
• Win over a CC = 0
• Loss to CC = -1
• Loss to MM = -0.5
• Home loss = -0.5

Florida Gators (8-1, SEC 6-1, P5 0-0, MM 1-0, CC 1-0) 7.75 Points

Points this week: 1 home win over Vandy.

Florida at South Carolina 11am/12pm, ESPN

The injuries are starting to pile up for the Gators with three starters, defensive linemen Jonathan Bullard and Joey Ivie plus starting safety Keanu Neal, possibly missing the South Carolina game. A third defensive lineman, end Jordan Sherit, has to sit out the first half after being ejected for targeting in the second half of the win over Vanderbilt.  The Gators also could be without a starter on offense - left tackle David Sharpe, who came off the bench and played on an injured foot against the Commodores.

Tennessee Volunteers (5-4, SEC 3-3, P5 0-1, MM 1-0, CC 1-0) 3.0 Points

Points this week: 1 home win over SC.

North Texas at Tennessee 11am/12pm, SECN

With a homecoming game against the Mean Green (1-8), the Vols hope to build a big lead and get some bench players some time on the field. Butch Jones would like to get Joshua Dobbs out as soon as possible and give Quinten Dormady some snaps under center. Dormady is a true freshman who the Vols hope will be the quarterback of the future. A 4-star out of  Boerne, Texas, he is a pro-style quarterback who has seen limited action against Bowling Green (0-1 passing) and Western Carolina (6-8, 93 yds, 1 TD).

Auburn Tigers (5-4, SEC 2-4, P5 1-0, MM 1-0, CC 1-0) 3.75 Points

Points this week: 1.5 road win at TAMU.

Georgia at Auburn 11am/12pm, CBS

As of post time, Tigers head coach Gus Malzahn is unsure if Sean White will be ready to play against Georgia. The freshman QB suffered a knee injury two Saturdays ago against Ole Miss.

Auburn’s defensive depth in the secondary just got a little thinner. Freshman Jeremiah Dinson will miss the remainder of the season with a leg injury.

The Tigers sit alone in last place in the SEC West at 2-4.

Georgia Bulldogs (6-3, SEC 4-3, P5 0-0, MM 0-0, CC 2-0) 4.0 Points

Points this week: 1 home win over UK.

Georgia at Auburn 11am/12pm, CBS

To make it a fair fight, the Bulldogs do not know who will be their starting QB on Saturday either. It is now down to Greyson Lambert and Brice Ramsey with the Faton Bauta experiment being stored away in that "Raiders of the Lost Ark" warehouse. UGA is 97th in the nation in yard per game with 193.4.

Texas A&M Aggies (6-3, SEC 3-3, P5 1-0, MM 2-0, CC 0-0) 4.25 Points

Points this week: -0.5 home loss to Aub.

Western Carolina at Texas A&M 6pm/7pm, ESPNU

And on the subject of quarterback shuffling, it is unclear if Kyler Murray will make his third start of his young career on Saturday. The true freshman took a hit to the head on a second half slide in the Aggies' loss to Auburn. Junior college transfer Jake Hubenak replaced Murray the rest of the way.

Kentucky Wildcats (4-5, SEC 2-5, P5 0-0, MM 1-0, CC 1-0) 1.5 Points

Points this week: 0 road loss at UGA.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt 3pm/4pm, SECN

Under Mark Stoops, the Wildcats are 2-10 in November games. Their only November wins have come against FCS teams: Samford in 2012 and Alabama State in 2013.

Ole Miss Rebels (7-3, SEC 4-2, P5 0-0, MM 1-1, CC 2-0) 4.5 Points

Points this week: -0.5 home loss to Arky.

Ole Miss has an open date.

The Rebels (7-3, 4-2 SEC) finished first in scoring defense last season at 16 points per game but have struggled this year. They rank 40th with 23 points allowed per game and are giving up 31.2 points per game to FBS opponents with winning records. The 52 points given up to Arkansas were the second most in a loss in program history.

Missouri Tigers (4-5, SEC 1-5, P5 0-0, MM 1-0, CC 2-0) 1.0 Points

Points this week: -0.5 home loss to MSU.

BYU at Missouri 6:30pm/7:30pm, SECN

The Tigers and Cougars have played only one previous time in the 1983 Holiday Bowl played San Diego, CA. BYU won the game 21-17 on a flea flicker scored by a quarterback you may have heard of named Steve Young.

South Carolina Gamecocks (3-6, SEC 1-6, P5 1-0, MM 1-0, CC 0-0) 2.25 Points

Points this week: 0 road loss at Tenn.

Florida at South Carolina 11am/12pm, ESPN

South Carolina redshirt junior quarterback Perry Orth is one of 55 players nominated for the Burlsworth Trophy. Named in honor of former Razorback Brandon Burlsworth, the award recognizes the nation's best walk-on.Burlsworth was selected as the 63rd overall pick by the Indianapolis Colts in the 1999 NFL draft, but was tragically killed in a car accident 11 days later. Alabama's TE/HB Michael Nysewander is also nominated.

Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4, SEC 3-2, P5 0-1, MM 0-1, CC 2-0) 2.5 Point

Points this week: 1.5 road win at OM.

Arkansas at LSU 6:15pm/7:15pm ESPN

At the beginning to the season, junior wide receiver Drew Morgan was buried in the Hogs depth chart. Thanks to hard work and injuries to others, he is now the SEC leader with nine touchdown receptions and tied for ninth most in the nation. This week, he was named to the Biletnikoff Award Watch List, presented annually to the nation’s top receiver.

Vanderbilt Commodores (3-6, SEC 1-4, P5 0-0, MM 1-2, CC 1-0) 0.5 Point

Points this week: 0 road loss at Fla.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt 3pm/4pm, SECN

The 'Dores have one of the nation's top defenses holding opponents to 316.1 total ypg (19th best) and 17.4 ppg (12th best). Bama is 3rd best at 265.3 ypg and 7th 16.3 ppg.

Vandy is actually favored in thsi game by 3 points.

LSU Tigers (7-1, SEC 4-1, P5 1-0, MM 1-0, CC 1-0) 6.5 Points

Points this week: 0 road loss at Bama.

Arkansas at LSU 6:15pm/7:15pm ESPN

According to a report from USA Today, LSU has been interviewing people connected to a website selling merchandise with the phrase "BUGA Nation" on it. The report state that the Fournette family allegedly received more than $20,000 in discounts. So far, there is no evidence that Leonard Fournette took any money or received any incentives or benefits. Nor is there any proof that LSU coaches or administration had knowledge of the activities. Stay tuned...

Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-2, SEC 3-2, P5 0-0, MM 1-0, CC 3-0) 4.0 Points

Points this week: 1.5 road win at Mizz last Thursday. (9 days off before the Bama game BTW)

ALABAMA at Mississippi State - 2:30pm/3:30pm, CBS

In his junior season, Chris Jones may finally be living up to his promise of the 5-star rating he got as a recruit. The defensive end harassed Mizzou backs all game long recording two tackles for loss, a sack, and a QB hurry. For his efforts Missouri, Jones was named the SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week. For the record, Bama really wanted Jones but he opted to stay home. One has to wonder if he might've developed quicker under the tutelage of Nick Saban, Kirby Smart, and Bo Davis.

Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1, SEC 5-1, P5 1-0, MM 2-0, CC 0-0) 7.75 Points

Points this week: 1 home win overLSU.

ALABAMA at Mississippi State - 2:30pm/3:30pm, CBS

Alabama-LSU was CBS' highest-rated game of the season earning a 6.4 rating and with 11.1 million viewers, according to Nielsen.

Although there is yet to be an official announcement, the Iron Bowl will likely be a 2:30pm CT or night game. This could possibly be the first season ever that the Crimson Tide has not had a game start before 2:30pm CT. It is definitely the first time of the Saban era.

TOTALS:

Team	Week 2 Points	Week 3 Points	Week 4 Points	Week 5 Points	Week 6 Points	Week 7 Points	Week 8 Points	Week 9 Points	Week 10 Points
Alabama	1.75	1.25	1.75	3.25	4.25	5.75	6.75	6.75	7.75
Florida	0.5	2.0	3.0	4.0	5.5	5.5	5.5	6.75	7.75
LSU	1.5	2.5	4.0	4.0	5.0	6.0	6.5	6.5	6.5
Ole Miss	0.5	2.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.5	3.5	5.0	4.5
Texas A&M	1.625	2.125	3.25	4.25	4.25	3.75	3.75	4.75	4.25
Georgia	1.5	2.5	2.5	2.0	2.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	4.0
Mississippi State	-0.5	-0.5	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.5	2.5	2.5	4.0
Auburn	1.25	1.25	0.75	1.25	1.25	2.75	2.75	2.25	3.75
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	2.0	3.0
Arkansas	-1.0	-1.5	-1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	2.5
South Carolina	0.75	0.75	1.25	1.25	1.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25
Kentucky	2.0	1.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.0	2.0	1.5	1.5
Missouri	1.0	1.0	1.0	2.0	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.0
Vanderbilt	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.5	0.5

#ROLLTIDE!