Processing the Numbers, Cupcake Edition | Charleston Southern Buccaneers

The Football Power Index (FPI) Ratings are courtesy of ESPN
All other statistics are courtesy of Football Outsiders, home of the F/+ Combined Ratings for college football.
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) was created by Brian Fremeau; check out his website BCFToys for other goodies.
The S&P+ rating was created by Bill Connelly; check out his college football analytics blog, Football Study Hall.
Hat tips to Addicted to Quack's kalon and FO's 7th Day Adventure column for the inspiration.

So how’d last week go?

Last week was a weird, weird game. On the one hand, the defense put together perhaps their most impressive effort of the year, but allowed nearly 400 yards of offense in the process. The offensive effort was was full of explosive plays, and yet they were just 5/14 on third down and were outgained by the Bulldogs.

Those big plays were the difference in the Tide’s 31-6 victory, as the defense produced two turnovers, nine sacks, and an early goal-line stand, while Cyrus Jones returned a punt for a touchdown. Derrick Henry had his second straight 200 yard game, and broke Mississippi State’s back with touchdown runs of 56 and 74 yards. Calvin Ridley made one man miss on a short route and 60 yards later was in the end zone. The Tide sustained some injuries as we’ll discuss in a moment, but all in all this was an impressive beatdown of a quality opponent.

Aren’t you supposed to be previewing something, nerd?

Right! Next up, the Alabama Crimson Tide close out the home schedule with a visit from an FCS foe in the Charleston Southern Buccaneers. The game is on Saturday, November 21^st, at 3:00 PM CST / 4:00 PM EST, and will be televised on SEC Network.

The Goods

(Bold) numbers indicate national ranking.
Statistics current as of November 19th, 2015.

Wondering what all these terms are?

Wondering what all of this means? Check out the PTN Primer!

For even more advanced statistics goodness, check out the Advanced Stats Profile Index and the Alabama Profile.

So, what do we know?

Charleston Southern is unrated in all of these metrics because they play in the FCS, and neither FootballOutsiders nor ESPN offer advanced metrics for those schools. Instead, we’ll break down how the Tide stack up against the rest of the country at this point in the season.

You’ll note the Tide are now the top team according to F/+, as Clemson’s unimpressive effort against Syracuse dropped them to #2 overall. The Tide and the Tigers are the consensus top two teams according to the FO metrics, while FPI is still in love with the Big 12, putting Baylor and Oklahoma in the top two spots ahead of the Tide. The CFP rankings, at least at the very top, line up well with the advanced metrics, as the top 4 teams all carry top-10 marks in the overall quality metrics.

The offense is definitely not the reason the Tide rank this highly, as they haven’t performed at an elite level in any of the metrics that I track. The very best rating is for Rush OS&P+ at #18 overall, which isn’t terribly surprising given who they have in the backfield. As Gary Danielson has been fond of informing you at numerous points during the season, all of the negative plays are really holding that unit back, as the Tide rank a dismal 73^rd in Offensive Stuff Rate. The passing metrics aren’t terrible — this is really a pretty good offense at the end of the day — but they are a bit lower than you’d like to see given some of the talent the Tide has in that phase of the game. The loss of Robert Foster to injury earlier in the year was truly unfortunate, as the former five star recruit looked to be the top option this year. Calvin Ridley has done amazing work stepping up into the #1 role, but the idea of that version of Ridley across from Foster is somewhat mesmerizing in its potential. That will be the look next season, and hopefully whatever quarterback takes the reins from Jake Coker^[1] is able to get the ball to those two from behind a retooled offensive line.

1 | Hint: It’s Blake Barnett.

My goodness, this defense. The lowest ranking in these metrics is 5^th in the country. If Boston College was slightly less excellent on passing downs, you’d see a clean sweep of the S&P+ components; as it stands, I don’t recall a defense topping the charts like this at this stage of the season — well, at least not since the 2011 and 2012 units. The most impressive of these to me is the #2 ranking in DASR — who would have thought this defense, so maligned for a lack of pass rush over the last couple of years, would rank this highly in that metric at this point in the year? It’s unbelievable, and a true joy to watch.

Special teams continue to be underwhelming. Jones does a great job returning punts, and Adam Griffith does a great job on kickoffs, but that’s where the good news ends. Griffith’s been nearly automatic on placements since the third game of the season or so, but that ugly stretch to start the year just won’t go away in this metric. That’s bound to be what’s holding the kick return efficiency back, as the Tide’s done pretty good work since those fumbles at the beginning of the year. Your guess is as good as mine on J.K. Scott, who looked returned to his old self for several weeks before regressing a bit against Mississippi State.

As far as the Charleston Southern game is concerned, a Tide win is a near certainty, it’s just a matter of whether or not it’s a 2011 Georgia Southern kind of win or a 2012 Western Carolina kind of win. The only numbers I know of that can help us out there are the Sagarin Ratings, which helpfully include FCS teams. The Tide are #1 overall, whereas the Buccaneers check in at 121^st, just ahead of 4-5 Louisiana-Lafayette. They run an option-style offense, which is always a great joy to defend against, but as BT pointed out in his offensive preview, the real worrisome trait of such teams is their tendency toward “creative” blocking and avoiding injuries against the same. The Tide may be without the services of Kenyan Drake until the bowl game, and can ill-afford to lose another key contributor with API and Florida looming in the next few weeks.

Any intangibles to consider?

This will be played in the loving embrace of Bryant-Denny Stadium, which is yet another benefit to the Tide they hardly need against this opponent. The weather appears lovely, with temperatures in the mid-60s at kickoff with a light wind and no chance of rain. Football is just better all-around in crisp conditions like these, and personally I’m a bit jealous of the folks who get to take in Senior Day live.

Injuries are a bit of a concern at this stage; as noted, Drake is on the shelf for a few weeks, and it’s dicey whether or not he’d be available for a potential SEC title game berth. Minkah Fitzpatrick is questionable with a sprained knee; given the opponent, don’t expect to see him on Saturday. The nagging injuries that have plagued Cam Robinson and Dominick Jackson for weeks appear to be healed, so expect some dominant run blocking this week.

Swanson Giddiness Index

Ron giggles, because he finds cupcake opponents amusing. There’s a tinge of worry to Ron’s eyes you can’t see, though, as he ponders potential injuries from a paycheck game. Ron doesn’t like it when people get injured.

The Pick

Easiest call of the season. This is not 2007, and Alabama damn sure ain’t Michigan.

STRAIGHT UP: Alabama Crimson Tide

ROLL TIDE