Processing the Numbers, Repugnant Edition | The Iron Bowl

The Football Power Index (FPI) Ratings are courtesy of ESPN
All other statistics are courtesy of Football Outsiders, home of the F/+ Combined Ratings for college football.
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) was created by Brian Fremeau; check out his website BCFToys for other goodies.
The S&P+ rating was created by Bill Connelly; check out his college football analytics blog, Football Study Hall.
Hat tips to Addicted to Quack's kalon and FO's 7th Day Adventure column for the inspiration.

So how’d last week go?

I mean, it was a cupcake, how do you think it went?

Aren’t you supposed to be previewing something, nerd?

Right! Next up, the Alabama Crimson Tide finish out the season in West Georgia when they face the API Warplainseagletigers^[1] in the 80^th meeting of the Iron Bowl. The game is on Saturday, November 28^th at 2:30 PM CST / 3:30 PM EST, and will be televised on CBS. That’s right, Verne and Gary wanted to call another Alabama game so bad they petitioned the SEC for the right to do so. Joy.

1 | Or whatever their mascot is today.

Obligatory Rivalry Week Throwing of Shade

The Goods

(Bold) numbers indicate national ranking.
Statistics current as of November 24^th, 2015.

Wondering what all these terms are?

Wondering what all of this means? Check out the PTN Primer!

For even more advanced statistics goodness, check out the Advanced Stats Profile Index and the Alabama Profile.

So, what do we know?

Overall Quality

So, to say little brother fell off a cliff when a whole slew of starters departed for various reasons after last season^[2] would be a tremendous understatement. Last year’s crew was a unanimous top-10 team per the various metrics, and while they stumbled a bit down the stretch in losing four of their last five games, they were a tough out for in four of their five losses.^[3] That was with ideal triggerman Nick Marshall at the wheel of the Gus Bus, however, and his absence this season has been felt rather strongly.

2 | Even though one decided to stick around for five games anyway.

3 | The exception being Georgia, who laid down a 34-7 whoopin’ in Athens.

As a result, the 2015 version of this group hasn’t fared nearly as well, and the overall quality metrics place them somewhere between the 31^st and 63^rd best team in the country. That is a comically broad range, but regardless of your metric of choice, the Tide — neck-and-neck with Clemson and Oklahoma for consensus top squad in the country — have a significant edge. Vegas has Alabama installed as a near two touchdown favorite, which depending on your current gump level may strike you as a bit low.

When API Has the Ball

As noted, the Gus Bus is not running quite as smoothly as it has over the last couple of years, as the losses of — excuse me while I take a deep breath here — Marshall, Cameron Artis-Payne, Corey Grant, Reese Dismukes, Chad Slade, Quan Bray, Sammie Coates, C.J. Uzomah, Brandon Fulse, and D’haquille Williams from last year’s group have totally gutted this offense. In case you were curious, the above list was the starting quarterback, top two running backs, top two tight ends, three of the four starters at wide receiver, and half the offensive line from 2014, which is completely absurd. This group is not particularly effective at anything, with their highest placement in any of these metrics being #30 overall in PD OS&P+. The once-vaunted rushing attack is slightly above average now at 52^nd overall according to S&P+, and their pass ranking is just four spots higher. They do an ok job protecting the quarterback, with the 38^th-ranked offensive line in OASR, but that’s pretty much where the positive outlook ends. The Tide’s defense is ranked 3^rd or higher in all of the metrics you see here, plus #1 rankings in Havoc Rate^[4] and the opponent-adjusted versions of IsoPPP and Success Rate. The only team that’s really done significant damage to this defense was Ole Miss, and I don’t think I need to rehash how fluky that game was.

4 | Basically the rate at which a defense accumulates what I call a Disruptive Play in Charting the Tide.

The prevailing narrative regarding the Tide defense over the last few years was how Saban’s defensive philosophy couldn’t work against the hurry-up no-huddle spread teams, and that the loss of Jeremy Pruitt as defensive backs coach in conjunction with a talent drain had completely screwed up the secondary. All of that is out the window at this point, as the talent level returned to 2011-2012 levels, Mel Tucker fixed the secondary, and the Tide’s combatted the no-substitution offense with a deeper defensive line that substitutes in a hurry. You will not be seeing Marshall and Tre Mason gashing the Tide at will like in 2013,^[5] or Coates burning a gimpy Eddie Jackson to a crisp like last year. This defense is way too good, and there’s just nobody on this offense that seems particularly bothersome. Do you think Jovon Robinson and Peyton Barber are succeeding where Leonard Fournette and Nick Chubb failed?^[6] Do you think Jeremy Johnson or Sean White and Ricardo Louis and Melvin Ray are succeeding where Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Mississippi State’s passing attacks all largely failed? I just don’t see it happening. I do see a lot of Johnson running for his life, though.

5 | Or a certain former kicker missing a slew of makeable field goals.

6 | Remember, well over half of Chubb’s production came on an 83-yard run in garbage time.

When Alabama Has the Ball

API was a legitimately good team last season, but as they seemed unable to keep most of their SEC opponents from racking up points, the faltering of the team down the stretch was blamed almost entirely on the defense. As such, Ellis Johnson was let go in the offseason, and Will Muschamp aka Coach Boom aka the Savior of API was hired to come in and fix the defense. The coordinator of Saban’s teams at LSU, as well as the 2006/2007 API squads and the 2009 Texas team that made it to the national championship, Muschamp completely flamed out as a head coach at Florida but still carried the reputation of an effective coordinator. This was the answer — Muschamp was going to come in and turn everything around, Johnson would win all the Heismans and API would win all the titles.

I’d like to point out that API ranked 20^th last season in DS&P+; this year, they rank 56^th. Before you say “but what about DFEI?” — they’ve dropped from 56^th a year ago to 65^th. Their crap pass rush, 96^th in 2014, is now 122^nd in DASR, among the 10 worst pass rushing teams in the country. They’ve dropped 14 spots in DALY, 27 spots in Rush DS&P+, 16 spots in PD DS&P+, while remaining about even in SD DS&P+ and improving 16 spots in Pass DS&P+.^[7] Just to recap, this defense has gotten demonstrably worse in almost every way, with a small improvement against the pass as the lone bright spot. To be fair they lost some talent on this side of the ball, but allegedly that was to be offset by the return of Carl Lawson. That hasn’t exactly panned out.

7 | Cut to the API fans not missing Jonathan Mincy at all.

Much like the defensive side of the ball, the Tide have a significant edge almost everywhere. The two exceptions are unsurprisingly in the passing game, where API’s improved coverage has their Pass DS&P+ ranking one spot ahead of the Tide’s in Pass OS&P+ and just enough in range on passing downs to keep it interesting. Probably the most important line on that chart is Rush S&P+, where the Tide ranks 13^th on offense against the #50 ranking for API. Derrick Henry has obliterated better rush defenses than that,^[8] and I see no reason why he won’t do it again on Saturday. API’s not much for generating tackles for loss either, ranking 99^th in stuff rate, and unlike Arkansas — the only team to really stop Henry this season — they are middling to bad in both Rushing Success Rate and Rushing IsoPPP.

8 | Wisconsin, Ole Miss, and Georgia all rank within the top-30 in this metric.

The low ranks in stuff rate, DASR, and DALY suggests this defensive line gets whipped in the trenches, and that means those tantalizing play-action passes may be available again this week. The Tide offense has been at its most lethal when Jake Coker has enough time to load up on the slower-developing pass routes, and if the sometimes-suspect offensive line doesn’t have to work too hard to keep Coker’s jersey clean, we could see a lot of explosive plays on Saturday. I’m not sure what you’re really supposed to do against this group if you don’t have a defense that does anything well. Sell out to stop Henry, and you’ll get killed over the top by Calvin Ridley and company. Keep safeties deep like the Viles did, and Henry drops a buck fifty on you. Pick your poison.

Special Teams

Daniel Carlson is a fine field goal kicker, 20/23 on the year and 4/5 from beyond 50 yards, with a long of 56. His efforts have earned API the #2 ranking in FGE, which you may note is far and away their best ranking in the charts above. It’s so good it swings an otherwise meh special teams unit to the #18 ranking in STE, which is leaps and bounds better than the Tide’s ranking in the same. They’re also pretty good on kick returns, with Johnathan Ford and Kerryon Johnson combining for a 28.2 yards per return average on the season. That’s unlikely the carry over to this game, however, as kickoffs have consistently been a strong point for the Tide this year. Adam Griffith rarely fails to make the end zone, and the Tide’s coverage unit is stocked with quick, hard-hitting athletes — even Evan Berry, an absolute demon on kick returns, only got loose once, and was held below his average on that return.

One thing I’ve noticed about these metrics is they tend to be easily skewed by a handful of bad plays, so despite the improved play of J.K. Scott and Griffith over the past few weeks, the Tide have barely moved at all in the rankings for FGE and PE. The same could be said for kick returns, where the Tide’s done just fine since the issues early in the season. One area that has only gotten better is on punt returns, where Cyrus Jones has returned three for touchdowns in the last two games, and is now second nationally in punt return yardage. API rates out very poorly in PE, and for similar reasons to the Tide: they’ve allowed a punt return touchdown, and their punter, while solid, is not exactly kicking the air out of the ball. Of course, you could say the same about Mississippi State, and we all saw what Jones did there.

Finally, the Tide have a significant edge in Field Value Efficiency, which is a product both of Griffith and Jones’ work, but also the Tide’s bevy of non-offensive touchdowns and turnovers gained, the latter of which ranks second in the conference behind Florida. API’s mark is solid but well behind the Tide’s, and having to work with long fields against this defense is not going to be fun time for their anemic offense.

Any intangibles to consider?

This is in Jordan-Hare Stadium, where the Tide have won just four times in 12 meetings. Two of those wins have come in the last three meetings in that stadium, however, as the shift from a yearly tilt in Birmingham to rotating home-and-homes happened to coincide with the second dark age of Alabama football. The weather looks to be delightful, with partly cloudy skies, a high of 72, and no wind or rain in the forecast.

The injury bug has largely left Alabama alone this season, with Kenyan Drake’s broken arm the only significant injury on the docket at this point. Minkah Fitzpatrick is back practicing, but with a heavy brace on his knee, and it is unclear if he will be able to go this week. Dominick Jackson was also back practicing with the first team, and all signs are that he will be ready to go on Saturday. API’s lone significant injury is to starting center Austin Golson, who missed the Idaho game with a knee injury and is questionable to play on Saturday.

Finally, a common refrain about the Iron Bowl is that you can “throw the records out” when these two teams meet, as the importance of the game to both teams tends to elevate the play of the lesser team. While that may be true in general game flow — who can forget the 2009 edition, when a 7-4 API squad opened up a 14 point lead on the undefeated Tide before succumbing 26-21 — it’s absolute nonsense when it comes to the final outcome.

Since the series was restarted in 1948, the team with the better winning percentage at the end of the season has lost just 8 times, and in only three of those was the result a significant upset: 1949, when a 1-4-3 API squad beat the 6-2-1 Tide; 1984, when a 4-6 Tide team upset 8-4 API; and 1990, when the 7-4 Tide beat 7-2-1 API.^[9] There’s an 80% correlation between the margin of victory and the difference in final win percentage in this series since 1948, which suggests the better team tends to win the game.

9 | This last one seems a bit tenuous, but API would go on to finish 8-3-1 vs. the Tide’s 7-5 mark, so.

Swanson Giddiness Index

Ron foresees a big game for Henry. Ron’s pretty excited about that.

The Picks

I’m really hesitant to approach this with any level of smugness — the results in those two games that didn’t happen in this series weigh heavily on my mind — but I just don’t see a realistic scenario in which API wins this game. The Tide is just too good this time around.

STRAIGHT UP:      Alabama Crimson Tide
AGAINST SPREAD: Alabama Crimson Tide

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