College Football Around the SEC: Week 4

We are trying something new this season: attempting to put a weight on records by measuring in certain factors. It is the first attempt (plus I barely made Cs in Statistics 101 &102 when I was at the Capstone), so it may need some tweaking in the future.

Some of you had queries about it and I have some clarifications.

1. Week 1, Mississippi State played at Southern Miss. Should they get 0.5 point for winning on the road? No. No credit is awarded for winning at a cupcake's stadium.
2. Also Week 1, Texas A&M played in Houston but only received 0.125 point for neutral location. College Station to Houston is in just under 100 miles. Phoenix to Houston is about 1,100 miles. More fans, more familiarity, easier commute.
3. So, why should they get any points at all? Even with all the advantages listed above, there is nothing like playing in your home stadium on your field with your locker room in front of your fans/students, etc. etc. etc.

A new tweak added is holding off on "Win over a ranked opponent = additional 0.5" until the end of the regular season. The logic (if there is any) is that a team ranked in September, may not be in December. [Hi Auburn!] By that time, perhaps I can come up with a good bonus equation.

Below is the key.

Win-Loss Record key:

• SEC - conference record
• P5 - non-SEC record against Power 5
• MM - record against Mid Majors/Non-Power 5 but projected bowl participant
  
• CC - record against cupcakes

Trying something new this season, we will attempt to put a weight on records.

• Win over P5 = 1 point
• Win over a ranked opponent = additional 0.5
• Road win = 0.5
• Neutral site win = 0.25
• Win over a MM = 0.5
• Win over a CC = 0
• Loss to CC = -1
• Loss to MM = -0.5
• Home loss = -0.5

Auburn Tigers (2-2, SEC 0-2, P5 1-2, MM 0-0, CC 1-0) 0.75 Points

Points this week: -0.5 home loss to MSU.

San Jose State at Auburn 3pm/4pm, SECN

The Tigers will be facing off against a Spartans team with running back Tyler Ervin who is coming off a 300-yard performance against Fresno State. He rushed for three touchdowns in the win giving him nine for the season. Ervin has scored in all four of SJSU's games this season.

South Carolina Gamecocks (2-2, SEC 0-2, P5 1-2, MM 1-0, CC 0-0) 1.25 Points

Points this week: 0.5 MM win over UCF.

South Carolina at Missouri 11am/12pm, SECN

The good news for Gamecocks fans is that they face a down Mizzou team. The bad news is that SC will likely be without their top rushing weapon Brandon Wilds (ribs) and starting center Alan Knott (ankle). Knott will be replaced by true freshman Zack Bailey.

Ole Miss Rebels (3-0, SEC 1-0, P5 1-0, MM 1-0, CC 1-0) 3 Points

Points this week: 1 home win over Vandy (although on the fringe of MM).

Ole Miss at Florida 6pm/7pm, ESPN 

The Rebels were without star safety Tony Conner, who underwent successful surgery Tuesday to repair torn meniscus in his right knee. Rebels head coach Hugh Freeze reiterated last Wednesday that Conner would miss a minimum of four weeks, meaning the junior’s first game back would be Oct. 24 against Texas A&M. Conner projects into the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft should he come out early.

LSU Tigers (3-0, SEC 2-0, P5 3-0, MM 0-0, CC 0-0) 4 Points

Points this week: 1.5 road win over P5 Syracuse (although on the fringe of MM).

E Michigan at LSU 6pm/7pm, ESPNU

Leonard Fournette's 244 rushing yards plus a 7 yard pass reception against Syracuse equated to 59% of LSU's offense for the day. Back-up RBs Derrius Guice, Darrel Williams, and Nick Brossette combined for only 7 touches and 26 yards.

Tennessee Volunteers (2-2, SEC 0-1, P5 0-2, MM 1-0, CC 1-0) 0 Points

Points this week: 0 loss at Fla.

Arkansas at Tennessee 6pm/7pm, ESPN2

As predicted in this here space just weeks ago, despite Alvin Kamara's great debut against Bowling Green (15-144, 2 TD), he has not found success against Power 5 defenses. In games against Oklahoma and Florida, he has gained 20 yards on 9 carries. He was 5 for 16 against Florida. Kamara tends to run to the sidelines with expectations of outrunning his opponents.

Texas A&M Aggies (4-0, SEC 1-0, P5 2-0, MM 2-0, CC 0-0) 3.25 Points

Points this week: 1.125 win over P5 Arky (1) at a psuedo-neutral (0.125) that is to their advantage.

Mississippi St at Texas A&M 6:30pm/7:30pm, SECN

Defensive lineman Myles Garrett had a big sack against Arkansas that helped win the game. It was the 18th sack of the sophomore's young career but only his fourth against SEC foes and his first against and SEC team since October 14, 2015 against Ole Miss. He had 11.5 as a freshman but only three in conference play. He has 6.5 this season [SIDENOTE: I hate how statisticians total up half sacks. They should be separate stats.]

Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-1, SEC 1-1, P5 1-1, MM 0-0, CC 2-0) 1 Point

Points this week: 1.5 road win (0.5) over Aubie (1).

Mississippi St at Texas A&M 6:30pm/7:30pm, SECN

The Bulldogs will be with out their long snapper Winston Chapman who tore his anterior cruciate ligament last week and will miss the remainder of the season. Bulldogs kicker Westin Graves has yet to miss a kick (5 FG, 13 PATs). This will be something to keep an eye on.

Missouri Tigers (3-1, SEC 0-1, P5 0-1, MM 1-0, CC 2-0) 1 Points

Points this week: 0 road loss to UK.

South Carolina at Missouri 11am/12pm, SECN

Quarterback Maty Mauk has been suspended for the South Carolina game for the dreaded "disciplinary reasons related to violation of team policies". This comes on the heels of another rocky start for the third year starter that resulted in a loss to Kentucky. Many Tigers fans have been clamoring for true freshman and former four-star Drew Lock to take over. Saturday will be his first start. It will be a tough draw for Mizzou will be without tight end Sean Culkin (knee sprain) and right tackle Nate Crawford (ankle sprain). Also missing will be star linebacker Kentrell Brothers (ankle sprain) and senior safety Ian Simon (head).

Florida Gators (4-0, SEC 2-0, P5 2-0, MM 1-0, CC 1-0) 3 Points

Points this week: 1 home win over Tennessee.

Ole Miss at Florida 6pm/7pm, ESPN 

Despite taking every snap against Kentucky and Tennessee, coach Jim McElwain is not prepared to name Will Grier as the starter at quarterback. Treon Harris returns from a positive drug test suspension this week. I like what McElwain has done in Gainesville but I am not sure if conducting a quarterback battle in Week 5 against the #3 team in the nation is a smart move.

Georgia Bulldogs (4-0, SEC 2-0, P5 2-0, MM 0-0, CC 2-0) 2.5 Points

Points this week: 0 home win over cupcake Southern U..

Alabama at Georgia 2:30/3:30, CBS

Mark Richt and Nick Saban have only faced off on six occasions with Saban winning four. In 2003, his National Champions LSU team beat UGA twice, once during the regular season and once in the SEC Championship Game.

• 2003 Georgia (final record 11–3) vs. LSU (13–1) Saban*, Saban**
  
• 2004 Georgia (10–2) vs. LSU (9–3) Richt*
  
• 2007 Georgia (11–2) vs. Alabama (7-6) Richt*
• 2008 Georgia (10–3) vs. Alabama (12–2) Saban*
• 2012 Georgia (12–2) vs. Alabama (13–1) Saban**

* Regular season
** SEC Championship Game

Arkansas Razorbacks (1-3, SEC 0-2, P5 0-2, MM 0-1, CC 1-0) -1.5 Points

Points this week: 0 psuedo-neutral loss to Texas A&M.

Arkansas at Tennessee 6pm/7pm, ESPN2

In losses to Toledo and Texas Tech, the Razorbacks committed penalties that negated touchdowns. On Saturday against the Aggies, the Hogs committed 11 penalties for 93 yards, including a false start by All-SEC tackle Denver Kirkland on a fourth-and-3 at the A&M 35 with under five minutes to play when Arky was going for the first down. Instead, they opted to punt on fourth-and-8.

Vanderbilt Commodores (1-3, SEC 0-2, P5 0-2, MM 0-1, CC 1-0) -1 Point

Points this week: 0 road loss to Ole Miss.

Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee 6pm/7pm, CBSSN

Vandy opens as a 1 point underdog to MTSU (2-2).

Kentucky Wildcats (3-1, SEC 2-1, P5 2-1, MM 1-0, CC 0-0) 2.5 Points

Points this week: 1 home win over Mizzou.

E Kentucky at Kentucky 6:30/7:30, SECN Alt

The Wildcats' 18-game losing streak against ranked teams came to an end with their win over former #25 Mizzou.

Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1, SEC 0-1, P5 1-1, MM 2-0, CC 0-0) 1.75 Points

Points this week: 0.5 home win over MM ULM.

ALABAMA at Georgia 2:30/3:30, CBS

UGA is favored by 2 to 2.5 points against the Crimson Tide. This make Alabama an underdog for the first time in 72 games. The last opponent favored over Bama was Florida in the 2009 SEC Championship Game. Alabama won that game 32-13, made Tebow cry, and went on to win the BCS Championship over Texas.

OTHERS:
Ohio State (4-0, B1G 0-0, P5 1-0, MM 1-0, CC 2-0, Road 1-0) 2 Points
TCU (4-0, B12 1-0, P5 2-0, MM 0-0, CC 2-0, Road 2-0) 3 Points
Baylor (3-0, SEC 0-0, P5 0-0, MM 0-0, CC 3-0, Road 1-0) 0.5 Points
Notre Dame (4-0, ACC* 2-0, P5 3-0, MM 0-0, CC 1-0, Road 1-0) 3.5 Points
*The Irish are playing a partial ACC schedule.

TOTALS:

Team	Week 2 Points	Week 3 Points	Week 4 Points
LSU	1.5	2.5	4.0
Texas A&M	1.625	2.125	3.25
Florida	0.5	2.0	3.0
Ole Miss	0.5	2.0	3.0
Georgia	1.5	2.5	2.5
Kentucky	2	1.5	2.5
Alabama	1.75	1.25	1.75
South Carolina	0.75	0.75	1.25
Mississippi State	-0.5	-0.5	1.0
Missouri	1.0	1.0	1.0
Auburn	1.25	1.25	0.75
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0
Vanderbilt	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0
Arkansas	-1.0	-1.5	-1.5

#ROLLTIDE!