Advanced Stats Rundown, Football Edition | Week of October 3^rd, 2015

The Football Power Index (FPI) Ratings are courtesy of ESPN
All other statistics are courtesy of Football Outsiders, home of the F/+ Combined Ratings for college football.
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) was created by Brian Fremeau; check out his website BCFToys for other goodies.
The S&P+ rating was created by Bill Connelly; check out his college football analytics blog, Football Study Hall.
All betting lines courtesy of BetOnline.ag via ESPN, because they’re first on the list and I’m lazy.

Seriously, we have to read stats on Wednesdays now too!?^[1]

Benevolent stats overlord Bill C. and FEI creator Brian Fremeau have been getting their stats out earlier in the week this season, meaning they are available in time to do a piece for Wednesday. So instead of Saturday morning, when you are all preparing your barbecues and tailgates and whatnot, ASR will be appearing mid-week from now on.

Advanced stats four days in a row! What a time to be alive.

1 | I suppose you don’t HAVE to, but seeing as you’re already here…

So, how’d last week go?

It’s a shame every week can’t go this well. Aside from Ole Miss not quite being able to shake Vandy and LSU offsetting another special Leonard Fournette performance with 120 penalty yards, I nailed every pick last time around. Which probably means I’m going to miss a lot this week, so proceed with caution!

2015, Straight Up: 32/40 (80.0%)
2015, Against the Spread: 21/40 (52.5%)

All statistics and spreads as of September 29^th , 2015.

Wondering what all these terms are?

SEC Game of the Week, Non-Alabama Division

Mississippi St. Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies, Saturday October 3^rd
6:30 PM CDT / 7:30 PM EDT, SEC Network

Tough call this week, as both the Florida – Ole Miss game and, surprisingly, the Vandy – MTSU game look like quality contests. But I’m headed back to the West after spending the last two ASRs featuring Florida.

Texas A&M, of course, is fresh off shattering Arkansas’ hopes and dreams in a wild finish last week. The Aggies tied it up with just under 3 minutes to go in the fourth, strip-sacked Razorback QB Brandon Allen on the ensuing drive, just missed a chip-shot field goal to win in regulation, and shut down Arkansas in overtime to walk out of Fayetteville 4-0. I don’t need to tell anyone what CLANGA did; you know.^[2]

2 | If you don’t, they beat API. Hehe.

The overall metrics all tilt in favor of the Aggies, with the edges in FPI and S&P+^[3] being significant. Both defenses are kicking around the 50s according to DS&P+, and lag behind the opponent offenses. However, Texas A&M once again sports one of the nation’s best attacks, currently ranked 13^th overall in S&P+. Oddly enough, they are not great on passing downs, which happens to be the specialty of the Bulldog defense. In both cases it’s strongly related to adjusted sack rate, where Texas A&M’s offensive line is among the country’s very worst, while the State defensive line is among the very best. If Texas A&M can stay on schedule and continue their strong play on standard downs, they should be just fine. If it becomes a game of third and longs, look out.

3 | Now based solely on this season’s results!

Mississippi State is pretty much all Dak Prescott at this point, and the lack of a strong running game has seriously hurt their performance on standard downs. Dak is still Dak though, and he still works the same magic on third downs that he did last year. The Bulldogs are the #6 overall team on passing downs and 20^th overall through the air, but the John Chavis’d Aggies defense is much improved on both those counts from last year’s group. The continued emergence of Myles Garrett has pushed A&M’s defensive sack rate to the top spot in the country, and while the Bulldogs offensive line has been solid in that regard (29^th overall), they will be seriously challenged with containing the sophomore phenom.

At the end of the day this is at Kyle Field, now regularly filled with over 100K rowdy Texans, and I suspect that’s the difference in the game. Mississippi State will be competitive but A&M just has too much going right for them this year.

THE PICK: Texas A&M Aggies, straight up and to cover.

National Game of the Week, Non-SEC Division

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Clemson Tigers, Saturday October 3^rd
7 PM CDT / 8 PM EDT, ABC

I don’t recall ever previewing a game this evenly matched in the advanced metrics. I’m tempted to say “Clemson will Clemson” and be done with it, but the last time I did that it, uh, didn’t work out too well.^[4]

4 | Clemson ended up winning their bowl game 40-6. They didn’t exactly Clemson, in other words.

But, seriously, wow these appear to be two really good teams. Neither one has played anybody yet, of course — Notre Dame’s thrashing of Georgia Tech was impressive for all of a week, as the latter continued to fall apart last Saturday. But in general they’ve played very well against lesser competition, which is all you can ask for at this stage of the season. With the now-typical exception of FPI, the overall quality metrics favor the Tigers, and this game will be played in their house.

One of the bigger stories the first two weeks of the season was the excellence of Malik Zaire, who beat out Everett Golson for the starting QB job at Notre Dame in the offseason. He promptly got injured against Virginia, giving way to DeShone Kizer, who has played capably in his stead if not at quite the same level. The inverse situation is occurring at Clemson, where last year’s freshman sensation Deshaun Watson is back and fully operational for the Tigers after an injury cut short his debut year. Unbeaten records and playoff positioning are on the line in this one, but I think we all realize this game is really combat by proxy to determine whether Deshaun or DeShone is the superior spelling of the name.

Joking aside, when Notre Dame has the ball this is going to be a hell of a matchup pitting a top-5 defense against effectively a top-5 offense.^[5] Notre Dame can forget running on yet another strong Clemson front seven, so their hopes rest on the arm of Kizer. Passing downs are the one edge Notre Dame has on that side of the ball, which is good because they will be in third and medium-to-long quite often. Clemson’s pass defense is plenty stout as well, and they are relatively effective rushing the passer, so don’t expect a repeat of last week’s 62 point tally for the Irish.

5 | Only 0.2 points separate the Irish from Arkansas in the OS&P+ rankings.

The other side of the ball is where this game will be decided, and I think it will be in favor of Clemson. There’s a “push” on that line of the chart above, but just barely, as Notre Dame’s defense is nothing to write home about. Clemson has a significant edge on the ground, and as their line protects well it will be up to the Notre Dame secondary to limit Watson through the air. They’re up to the task, as they are currently ranked 17^th overall in Pass OS&P+, but I suspect Clemson has just a little too much this time around. The truth is Clemson didn’t Clemson much after last year’s debacle at FSU, and in general they’ve Clemsoned much less frequently under Dabo Swinney. They won’t on Saturday.

THE PICK: Clemson Tigers, straight up and to cover.

Other SEC Games to Watch

South Carolina Gamecocks at Missouri Tigers, Saturday October 3^rd
11 AM CDT / 12 PM EDT, SEC Network

It’s the East’s battle of mediocrity this week, featuring my two least favorite teams to prognosticate this year in South Carolina and Missouri. Maty Mauk is absolutely the new Dr. Bo, and his efforts have relegated Missouri to the #120 ranking in the country according to OS&P+. That’s not very good, and when your offense is that bad it makes mediocre defenses like South Carolina’s look outstanding. On the other side of the ball, freshman Lorenzo Nunez opened a lot of eyes in Columbia last week, as he appears to be a tremendous upgrade over the ineffective and frustrating Perry Orth. The huge, huge differential in S&P+ is telling, and I think Nunez is going to do wonders for the Gamecocks offense.

THE PICK: South Carolina Gamecocks, straight up and to cover.

San Jose State Spartans at API WarPlainsEagleTigers, Saturday October 3^rd
3 PM CDT / 4 PM EDT, SEC Network

Any other year this would have gone into the “Cakewalks” section, as SJSU is not exactly a powerhouse. However, little brother is in full on tire-fire mode, as it looks like Duke Williams has checked out,^[6] Sweater Vest doesn’t have a quarterback, and the only effective players on the team keep getting injured. I think they get it together for a win, but I don’t think they cover.

6 | Why did you even come back?

THE PICK: API straight up, but the San Jose State Spartans cover.

Ole Miss Rebels at Florida Gators, Saturday October 3^rd
6 PM CDT / 7 PM EDT, ESPN

Were you aware Jim McElwain’s Gators were undefeated? New Mexico State was a gimme, but the other three wins were a bit more impressive, and last week’s come-from-behind emasculation of Tennessee almost moved one to tears of joy. Ole Miss barely survived Vanderbilt last week, as Chad Kelly — and stop me if you’ve heard this one before — looked thoroughly pedestrian after a starmaking performance against the Tide.^[7] The stats are firmly in favor of Ole Miss all the way down the line, but I’m starting to wonder about this team. The Rebels won’t be gifted five turnovers every week, and the Gators are a heck of a lot better than Vanderbilt, and playing at home to boot. I’m sure I’ll regret this come Sunday, but I’m taking Coach Mac’s team in the upset.^[8]

7 | Sure, 321 yards is nice, but when you get a 100 yard rusher and you’re throwing to Treadwell and company, that’s to be expected.

8 | Remember the speech something something 2008 something something Tebow!

THE PICK: Florida Gators, straight up and to cover.

Arkansas Razorbacks at The Viles, Saturday October 3^rd
6 PM CDT / 7 PM EDT, ESPN2

If it weren’t for the ongoing collapse in West Georgia, we’d be talking a lot more about these two teams, who have absolutely crapped the bed for the last three weeks.^[9] Here’s the big difference though — the Viles have problems holding the lead, whereas Arkansas has a hard time even getting one. Somehow they have the fifth-best offense in the country, so even against a solid Viles defense they should put up some points. The opposing offense is better than their ranking indicates, however, and I think that’s enough for them to win at home.

9 | The Viles’ dispatching of Western Carolina notwithstanding.

THE PICK: The Viles, straight up and to cover.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Saturday October 3^rd
6 PM CDT / 7 PM EDT, CBS Sports Network

Bet you weren’t expecting this, eh? Vanderbilt’s only calling card is the defense, which showed how excellent it is last week against the Rebels. We all saw what MTSU can do in their game against the Tide, so that will be a fun matchup to watch. I think the Commodores played a bit above their heads last week, and the stats actually favor the Blue Raiders.

THE PICK: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, straight up and to cover.

Cakewalks

Eastern Michigan Eagles at LSU Tigers, Saturday October 3^rd
6 PM CDT / 7 PM EDT, ESPNU

Directional Michigan, meet Leonard Fournette!

THE PICK: LSU Tigers, straight up and to cover.

ROLL TIDE