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Around the SEC (and Nation): OVER/UNDER on Regular Season Wins Revisited

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How did Las Vegas predictions do on College Football prognostications?

NCAA Football: Tennessee at Alabama
This guy gets it.
Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

It’s flashback time! The year was 2017. The day was July 28. Like most college football off-seasons, it was a long and tedious one waiting for toe to meet leather. To fill the time, much conjecture and wild blind predictions were bandied about. Some of that banter was sparked by the release by the online sports betting site Bovada and their Regular Season Win Totals for several teams across the country.

So, how did they do? And more importantly, how did you do?

Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 10.5 - (Currently 10-0) OVER

If you were a good Gump, you ran out and laid your hard-earned money on Over for the Tide. Alabama will undoubtedly defeat Mercer on Saturday putting them at 11-0. It is the seventh straight season Nick Saban has reached the 11 win mark and ninth out of the last ten at the Capstone.

Auburn Tigers: O/U 8.5 - (8-2) OVER

The Tigers should notch win number nine this weekend against UL-Monroe. I am shocked as you are that I correctly picked every Auburn game this offseason.

Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 7.0 - (4-6) UNDER

7-5 sounded about right for the Hogs but losing RB Rawleigh Williams, WR Jared Cornelius and WR Koilan Jackson before the season even started was a pretty big blow to the offense.

Florida Gators: O/U 8.0 - (3-6) UNDER

Wow. Just wow. Who woulda think the Gators season would derail in such spectacular fashion. Had QB Luke Del Rio not been made out of glass coupled with 10 players being suspended for credit card fraud and identity theft, things might have been different in Gainesville.

Georgia Bulldogs: O/U 8.5 - (9-1) OVER

You knew they would be good, but the Dawgs profited from the surprising meltdowns of Florida and Tennessee. Additionally, not many observers thought they could go into South Bend and topple the Irish.

LSU Tigers: O/U 9.0 - (7-3) TBD

No team had more uncertainty then the Bayou Bengals with coach O named the full-time head honcho in Baton Rouge. They are a -15½ point favorite at Tennessee and should be favored at home against TAMU in the final week. Two wins put them at a Push. I predicted 10-2 but FWIW I stated “they are bound to lose a third (or fourth) regular season game to someone they should not.” Who knew it would be Troy?

Mississippi State Bulldogs 5.5 - (7-3) OVER

There was not much reason to believe that MSU would be world-beaters in 2017 but I would have taken the Over thinking they could surely get to 6 Ws. Actually, I predicted 7-5.

Missouri Tigers: O/U 6.5 - (5-5) TBD

With a 1-5 record a mere month ago, this looked like an easy UNDER. Since the loss to UGA, the Tigers have reeled off four straight wins. They are favored by -8½ @Vandy and should be favored @Arky to wrap the regular season.

Ole Miss Rebels: N/A (5-5)

Win totals for OM were not made available due to the uncertainty surrounding the Hugh Freeze shenanigans at the time. My crystal ball said 5-7 which is still possible with TAMU and the Egg Bowl left on the schedule. Of note, the Rebs have gone OVER in points in nine of their ten games this season, including each of their past seven. The O/U for Saturday’s game with Texas A&M stands at 69½ points.

Kentucky Wildcats: O/U 7.0 - (7-3) TBD

This one will be a Push or an Over with a trip to UGA (they are a -21½ point underdog) this weekend and home game against Louisville remaining.

South Carolina Gamecocks: O/U 5.5 - (7-3) OVER

SC is one of the bigger surprises of the year, but I probably would’ve taken the Over figuring they could get to six wins.

Tennessee Volunteers: O/U 7.5 - (4-6) UNDER

You knew this team would not be the same without Josh Dobbs under center but who knew they would devolve into a seething pile of Bluetick Coonhound dung? I fool-heartedly had them at 8-3.

Texas A&M Aggies: O/U 7.0 - (6-4) TBD

The Aggies finish on the road at Ole Miss and at LSU. They might just lose both. I predicted 6-6.

Vanderbilt Commodores N/A (4-6)

None available.

tiny football

A Few Others of Note:

Florida State Seminoles: O/U 9.5 - (3-6) UNDER

Four months ago, this looked like a pretty good bet. Florida State had the dynamic Deondre Francois under center and 20 returning starters. Most figured they would lose to Alabama and perhaps at Clemson. They had Miami, NC State and Louisville at home. It was unfathomable that they would pull an absolute nosedive after losing Francois in Game 1.

Ohio State Buckeyes: O/U 10.5 - (8-2) UNDER

Ohio State has won at least 11 games every season Urban Meyer has been on the sidelines, so this seemed like a good number. However, they lost a lot of talent to the NFL and graduation. Having PSU and Sparty at home helped but who saw the humiliating loss to Iowa coming?

Michigan Wolverines: O/U 9.0 - (8-2) TBD

Nine wins seemed about right at the beginning of the season. Now, Michigan may not even get off of eight. They are at Wisky on Saturday followed by a visit from the Buckeyes.

Southern Cal Trojans: O/U 9.5 - (9-2) TBD

With all of the off-season hype around Southern Cal and Sam Darnold, I would not be surprised if they had many takers on the Over. They should reach that goal after trouncing UCLA on Saturday.

Select Others:

Air Force Falcons: 5.0 (4-6)

Arizona Wildcats: 5.5 (7-3)

Army Black Knights: 7.5 (8-2)

Baylor Bears: 7.5 (1-9)

Boise State Broncos: 8.0 (8-2)

BYU Cougars: 9.5 (3-8)

Clemson Tigers: 9.5 (9-1)

Colorado State Rams: 7.5 (6-5)

FAU! Owls: 4.5 (7-3)

Fresno State Bulldogs: 4.0 (7-3)

Houston Cougars: 8.0 (6-3)

Iowa Hawkeyes: 6.5 (6-4)

Iowa State Cyclones: 5.5 (6-4)

Louisville Cardinals: 9.0 (6-4)

Memphis Tigers: 8.5 (8-1)

Miami Hurricanes: 9.0 (9-0)

Michigan State Spartans: 6.5 (7-3)

Navy Midshipmen: 7.0 (6-3)

Nebraska Cornhuskers: 7.0 (4-6)

North Carolina Tar Heels: 7.0 (2-8)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 7.5 (8-2)

Oklahoma Sooners: 9.5 (9-1)

Oklahoma State Cowboys: 9.0 (8-2)

Oregon Ducks: 8.0 (5-5)

Penn State Nittany Lions: 9.5 (8-2)

San Diego State Aztecs: 9.5 (8-2)

South Alabama Jaguars: 4.0 (4-6)

Stanford Cardinal: 8.5 (7-3)

Syracuse Orange: 4.5 (4-6)

TCU Horned Frogs: 7.5 (8-2)

Texas Longhorns: 7.5 (5-5)

Troy Trojans: 8.5 (8-2)

UAB Blazers: 2.5 (7-3)

UCF Knights: 7.5 (9-0)

UCLA Bruins: 6.5 (5-5)

USF Bulls: 10.0 (8-1)

Utah Utes: 6.5 (5-5)

Virginia Tech Hokies: 9.0 (7-3)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 5.5 (6-4)

Washington Huskies: 10.0 (8-2)

Washington State Cougars: 7.5 (9-2)

West Virginia Mountaineers: 7.0 (7-3)

Poll

Who has been the biggest surprise (good or bad) in the SEC from what you thought preseason?

This poll is closed

  • 4%
    Arky’s slide.
    (14 votes)
  • 73%
    Florida’s crash and burn.
    (227 votes)
  • 2%
    LSU’s (mostly) success.
    (7 votes)
  • 9%
    MSU’s solid season.
    (28 votes)
  • 10%
    Tennessee’s meltdown.
    (32 votes)
308 votes total Vote Now