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College Football Playoffs National Championship point spread and notes: ‘Bama favored again

Tide rolls in as an early favorite

<p zoompage-fontsize="15" style="">Las Vegas

BookMaker.eu opened the Alabama Crimson Tide as 4-point favorites against the Georgia Bulldogs in the CFP National Championship. The game’s total was set at 47.5.

“The way the semis unfolded certainly factors into the oddsmaking for this matchup, given that Alabama played such a complete game and looked like juggernauts while Georgia simply appeared to be on the right side of a shootout. The thought was to be higher than a field goal to give Alabama the respect it deserves, but not near a touchdown where we’re giving too much value to a quality Georgia club.”

Bovada opened its line at -4.5 for ‘Bama (o/u 47), with their book manager saying:

“After opening Alabama at -4.5, we are seeing an immediate trend of Alabama money coming in already at over 60%. I do expect to see some more Georgia money as we get closer but I guess Bama’s defensive shutdown of Clemson is fresh in people’s minds. However, from a futures point of view, Alabama is a sizeable winner for us while Georgia is quite a big loss.” Kevin Bradley, SportsBook Manager, Bovada.lv

Alabama vs. Georgia Notes:

- Alabama is 38-25-4 vs. Georgia

- Alabama is 3-0 vs. Georgia since 2008

- The “Over” is 5-1 in the last six games between Alabama and Georgia

- This marks the 112th time out of 113 games since 2010 that Alabama has been favored. The last time the Tide were not favored was during the 2015 season where they were 1-point underdogs at Georgia. The prior time was in 2009 against Florida in the SEC Championship where they were 4.5-point underdogs. They won both games.

Alabama vs. Georgia (Since 1995)

2015 (at Georgia) - Alabama 38, Georgia 10 (Alabama +1.5/Under 50.5)

2012 (SEC Championship) - Alabama 32, Georgia 28 (Georgia +9/Over 48.5)

2008 (at Georgia) - Alabama 41, Georgia 30 (Alabama -6.5/Over 46)

2007 (at Alabama) - Georgia 26, Alabama 23 (Georgia +3/Over 46.5)

2003 (at Georgia) - Georgia 37, Alabama 23 (Georgia -12.5/Over 42)

2002 (at Alabama) - Georgia 27, Alabama 25 (Georgia +3.5/Over 46)

1995 (at Georgia) - Alabama 31, Georgia 0 (Alabama -3/Under 41)

Alabama Notes:

- Since 2010, the Tide are just 16-6 SU and 8-12-1 ATS as single-digit favorites or underdogs

Georgia Notes:

- Georgia is 7-1 SU and ATS in games played outside of Athens this year (3-0 SU and ATS at neutral sites)

- Georgia is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five bowl games

- Georgia has won its last three games when listed as an underdog

Given the advanced stats here and how UGA has performed against power running teams, going 1-2 with a blowout loss, I feel pretty safe taking the Tide and the points. But, also given Jake Fromm’s ability to hit a vertical pass on occasion, and the bevy of weapons that UGA will roll out, that the ‘Dawgs will get enough scores to push this one over the 47 too.