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Season: 49-33-1
Last Week: 8-5-1
What Went Right: Told ya’ to stay away from Memphis, Alabama, OSU, WVU. Nailed GT, Cincy, Illinois, EMU (sort of — that’s the push), ND in a romp, Hawaii etc., all did well.
What went wrong: FAU decided to show up, Houston didn’t run it up in the waning moments and busted the total; I have no idea what happened to Liberty; Washington slogged around a bit more than even I expected, unable to put away the Bruins, etc. Houston was particularly upsetting, since it meant I lost my first weeknight game of the season. That said, I’m off to a 1-0 start with Appy State -9 1⁄2 vs. the Red Wolves.
Here are your spreads and picks for week seven. But first, let’s save you some money
Not with a 10’ Pole and Your Money:
Alabama -28 1⁄2 vs. Mizzou is just an awful spread — even if the Tide gets up huge, which is possible, then in will come the second-teamers for Drew Lock to tee off on. Alabama should be able to have quite a bit of success offensively, but the Diggs-less secondary is going to put Saivion on an island against some of the SEC’s best WRs — and he’s not shown he can consistently win those battles yet. Did I mention that Alabama gives up over 113 yards per game on the ground and that Mizzou averages 200 per contest? You can see something like 56-28 coming a mile away. Rutgers is awful, and I usually encourage betting against them. But I’m not going to suggest taking Maryland -25 1⁄2. Even Minnesota will be able to score enough to cover +30 at Ohio State. That spread is even more out of whack than Alabama’s. WMU -15 vs. BGSU — Bowling Green is bad, but so is Western. I don’t think the Broncos are 15 points better than any conference team; they haven’t been so far. UNLV is not as bad as they look, and giving up +27 at Utah State, the latter coming off a huge rivalry win, is just too much to be comfortable with. So, let’s see — coming off back to back wins over ranked teams, and staring at a bye. The WLOCP vs. UGA upcoming. And, we find the Florida Gators traveling to Vanderbilt to face a team that has traditionally played them tough. And, favored by just one tasty touchdown? Mullen’s road baggage comes with it, to boot? Bwahahaha. Not on your life. If you touch this, you deserve what happens to you.
Thursday:
TCU -7 vs. Texas Tech 61
Ga. State -17 1⁄2 at Texas State 49
Friday:
USF -7 at Tulsa 61 1⁄2
AFA + 11 1⁄2 at SDSU 43 1⁄2
Arizona + 13 1⁄2 at Utah 51 1⁄2
Saturday:
Toledo -1 at EMU
Rutger at Maryland -25 1⁄2
Akron at Buffalo -12
Minn at OSU -29 1⁄2
Neb. at Northwestern -4
Iowa at Indiana +5 1⁄2
Tenn. at Auburn -15 1⁄2
UF at Vandy +7
Okie Lite -7 at KSU
Duke at GT -3
Luhvl at BC -13 1⁄2
UAB -16 1⁄2 at Rice
Troy at Liberty + 9 1⁄2
So. Miss +9 at No. Tex
Kent at MIA (OH) -11
Pitt at Notre Dame -21
Ball St at CMU -3
WMU at BGSU + 15 1⁄2
TAMU at USCe +2
Purdue at Illinois -10 1⁄2
WKU at UNCC +7 1⁄2
Marshall at ODU +3 1⁄2
Army at SJSU + 15
Wash. at Oregon +3
Ohio at No. Ill -4
Temple at Navy +7
UCF at Memphis +4.5
Baylor at Texas -14
UGA at LSU +7 1⁄2
MSU at Penn State - 13 1⁄2
UNLV at Utah State 27
UNM at CSU —
NMSU at ULL -8 1⁄2
ULM at Coastal -6 1⁄2
Miami -6 1⁄2 at UVA
Va. Tech at UNC +5 1⁄2
Houston -16 at ECU
La. Tech at UTSA + 11 1⁄2
WVU at Iowa St. +6 1⁄2
Mizzou at Alabama -28 1⁄2
UCLA at Cal -7
MTSU at FIU -2
Ole Miss at Ark. +6 1⁄2
Wisco at Umich -8 1⁄2
Hawaii at BYU -11 1⁄2
Colo. at USC -7
Wyo. at Fresno -18
Boise State at Nevada + 17
Love these games:
BC giving up 13 1⁄2 vs. the defensively challenged Cardinals is a great pick. Jawon Pass has improved, and the Cards will put up some points. But they won’t be able to stop the Eagles. This is a bad road team. Michigan is easily 8 1⁄2 better than the Badgers. I don’t know how the latter will score, even if the Wolverines have to outpunch them. But, the Badgers will show up at least. 27-17 feels right. Okie Light needs a win: though the Little Apple has been the bane of Texas, not so much here. Give the Pokes a TD+ win over the Wildcats. Miami has a functional passing attack; UVA does not. This feels kind of trap-ish in Charlottesville after a rivalry game. But UVA is still in the midst of a rebuild. 24-13ish kind of ugly win for the ‘Canes. There’s simply no way that Wyoming can move the ball against Fresno State. I don’t think this one will be particularly close either. Bulldogs big over the Cowboys — or at least by the -18.
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Texas finds itself in a similar position against Baylor that Miami does against UVA. Normally, I’d bet against the Longhorns here, but the Bears can’t stop UT if they line up and just run over them. Horns will get the -13 1/2. The dirtiest secret in CFB is how bad Sparty has been — 1:1 TD:INT ratio; just over 3 yards per carry on the ground. The defense will get after the PSU run game, but the MSU secondary is a bottom-30 unit and has been a liability all season. Bad news against a legit Heisman contender licking his wounds. PSU needs some style points, and this is a perfect opportunity to do so, especially with MSU hosting the Wolverines next week. Not even Franklin can screw up -13 1⁄2 here. The So. Florida Bulls are at least 10 points better than Tulsa. In any event, they are a touchdown better than the Golden Hurricane. Bulls cover on the road. This just isn’t your normal Navy team, and the Middies face a Bearcats squad that is 8th in the country against the run and average over 30 PPG on offense. Cincy’s hot streak continues. Notre Dame is playing to overcome its schedule at this point. The toughest games on the slate are over, and teams that should have been solid wins are not so great now. Pitt was supposed to be one of these teams; but, like USC and Stanford, they are not. The Fighting Irish blow out the Panthers at home. Time to impress the committee, Domers!
Take a chance!
In the previous three weeks, Arkansas has played outstanding defense on the road against A&M and Auburn. Last week, Storey and Co. continued their development against an Alabama defense that was soft and out of sorts at times. If the Piggies thought that was bad play up the middle, wait until they see the slop dragging itself in from Oxford. Perhaps the only SEC squad with a worse defense is just what Chad Morris needs to give his young team some confidence. Call it a hunch, but I like Arkansas at home, at night, in a shootout against a Rebels team that plays poorly on the road. The Hogs just need a few stops: I don’t think Ole Miss will get many. 45-41 Arkansas upset.
Jake Bentley is going to have to win this one in Columbia; the ‘Cocks running game will be a no-factor. And, the Aggies are going to have to play patiently against the 100th-ranked run defense in the country. I like A&M’s chances to MANBALL South Carolina more than I like Bentley’s chance to keep up if this becomes a high scoring affair. Aggies by a touchdown in a game that shouldn’t be this close. Consistency has always been Jimbo’s problem, so this one scares me a little.