Last Week: 2-0 (Michigan -7 and Alabama -29 1⁄2), though the week before was my worst of the season, going a paltry 6-6.
To Date: 57-38-1
Here are the odds for Week 8. Let’s try and make y‘all some money, and just as importantly, let’s help you keep some in your pocket by avoiding the trap spreads.
Not with a 10’ Pole and Your Money:
Let’s talk about the MAC: WMU -7 vs. Toledo. Ignore the records, the two teams are really close, both in talent and in common opponents. The Rockets have been a bit sloppier with the ball; the Broncos a little better on defense. But, the Rockets have also had the harder slate to date. This seems much more a FG game than a touchdown one. I also don’t like that total (65 1/2 ). That effort by the NCSU secondary vs. Clemson last week scared me off of the Wolfpack. And in the Carrier Dome? -2 1⁄2 for State seems to be skewed the wrong way. I like Syracuse as a home ‘Dog here, but not enough to bet on it. Steer clear of that toxic -7 UGA vs. UF line: The Dawgs should be a touchdown better, but the defense sits at just 47th against the run and the secondary was torched by Joe Burrow of all people. Anything can happen here, and the Florida defense can make this one hella’ gross.
This one will be a tight game, simply because the Hokies don’t throw the ball well. But, the run defense has been lights out and well-disciplined — that’s usually a recipe for beating an option team, especially at home. Gimme’ Va. Tech -3 1⁄2 over Ga. Tech. I really like Indiana -3 at reeling Minnesota. The Gophers’ secondary has turned into a trainwreck, being lit up for over 1000 yards in its last two. Bad news against the Hoosiers, even at home. Wazzu’s road woes are well-documents. But, have you seen Stanford’s secondary? They’re skating by on rep. at this point (98th in the nation 22 TDs allowed.) Gimme’ The Cougs over Shaw as a 2 1⁄2 point underdog. Another case where the wrong team seems favored: I have no idea why TAMU is +1 in Starkville. It will be a close ugly game, but the Aggies are simply better — now, prove it Jimbo, and gimme Aggy on the road. Likewise, I have no idea why Arkansas is a 1-point home underdog over Vanderbilt. Gimme’ the Piggies. I’m not sure what’s going to happen in Ames when Iowa State hosts Texas Tech, but I know one thing: It’s going over the o/u 56. Cincinnati is just plain better than Tulsa, and are probably 10-14 points better on the road, not the -8 they’re giving up here.
Worth Taking a Chance:
Give me the ‘Eers at home to at least push -14 vs. Baylor. Baylor can’t score enough to play up and down the field. Look for an aggressive gameplan from Holgo a la Oklahoma and Duke’s earlier effort vs. BU. I’m not sure why FAU is favored over La. Tech (+ 2 1⁄2 ). I like the Bulldogs here: they’ve been a better team than the Hootin’ Freshwaters. The +10 1⁄2 underdog line for UNC is way too big. The ‘Heels have played solid ball the last month, and it’s not like UVA has a world-beating offense. UNC’s run defense gives you pause, but the ‘Hoos aren’t objectively 11 points better, right? The one thing Coastal can’t do very well, stop the run, is the one of many things that the Ga. State Panthers can’t exploit. Meanwhile, Ga.State can’t stop the run, and the Chanticleers absolute pound the rock. I like the Chanticleers -2 1⁄2 on the road. Mizzou is a 6 1⁄2 point favorite. And, honestly, this seems about right: the Wildcats’ weak link is the secondary. And The Tigers have a superb DL that can bottle up Bennie. MU -6 1⁄2 hosting Kentucky.