This week’s special contribution and betting guide comes from Johnny Wardell, handicapper at MyBookie. Johnny has previously contributed to these pages, with his breakdown of the Vols-Alabama game, and had the Tide covering and going over the total — a nice little parlay, if you took it.
Here’s how he sees this one shaking out.
Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers Game Info
Alabama -14.5 at LSU (O/U 53)
After a somewhat predictable opening few weeks in the college football season, we have seen total mayhem take charge over the last 2 weeks. First, it was Ohio State dropping out of the top 4 with a stunning loss to Purdue, which was then followed by Texas getting blindsided by Oklahoma State last weekend. The college football playoff committee released their ranking Tuesday, with Alabama and LSU both in the top 4, but one will likely tumble out of a playoff spot after Saturday.
This massive matchup will more than likely decide who wins the SEC West and moves on to the Conference Championship Game. The outcome of this one will also open a door for the teams in the chasing pack, so there really is a lot on the line here. Alabama is in as a 14 ½ point favorite, with the point total set at 53 ½.
When: Saturday, November 3 at 8 PM EST
Where: Tigers Stadium, Baton Rouge
Why bet on the Alabama Crimson Tide
The Alabama Crimson Tide have been a dominant force in college football almost from the moment that Nick Saban set foot on campus. He has had some outstanding teams during that time, but it can be argued that this one might be the best of the lot. The question now is whether the Crimson Tide can maintain their dominance all the way to the end, as there are some who are suggesting that they have yet to face their toughest opponents. A trip to Baton Rouge is certainly a tough one, as will be the Iron Bowl against Auburn in a couple of weeks. Alabama are averaging a staggering 53 PPG to this point in the season, but they will be up against a D that is giving up just 14 PPG. Alabama are 5-1 straight-up in their last 6 visits to LSU and have gone 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games versus the Tigers.
Why bet on the LSU Tigers
If you want an idea of just how tough it is to go into Baton Rouge and get a result, just look at how badly Georgia were manhandled when they paid a visit a few weeks back. It is the Tigers defense that gets all the love, but let’s not forget that this team is still averaging over 30 PPG on offense this year. That is a good way off the pace being set by their opponent this week, but if the Tigers D holds strong, this offense has the tools to put Bama away. The downside is that LSU are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games versus the Crimson Tide, although they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 overall.
Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction
This is quite simply the biggest game in the college football calendar this Saturday and I think we are in for a great one. I like Alabama to win, but I just don’t see them covering that spread.
Alabama Crimson Tide 33 LSU Tigers 24