RPI last week: 38, SOS 17
RPI this week: 33, SOS 13
Projected Season Stats: RPI 25, SOS 6, 19-12 (10-8 SEC)
Last week went according to script, didn’t it? Listless loss in Starkville where the Tide couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn, followed by Saturday’s new Alabama record for margin of victory against a Top 15 opponent?
Don’t look now: Arkansas is sitting at a healthy RPI of 35, LSU is a respectable 77. Florida is at 47th: Three winnable games all at Coleman to wrap up the home slate.
Seriously, don’t look: But, the Tide’s remaining road games are all against Top-20 RPI foes, and two of those are in places Alabama has traditionally struggled: Kentucky (20), Auburn (8,) and Texas A&M (17)
The win that gets better each week: Rhode Island (RPI 5), Auburn (8)
The good loss that still looks like a good loss: Arizona (16)
The “bad loss” that actually is a respectable loss: Missouri (25), Miss. St. (56), Texas (43).
The “good loss” that’s turning into a terrible loss: Minnesota (then 14, now 134).
The “big win” that get worse each week: Florida (then 23, now 47), Oklahoma (then 10, now 21)
The bad losses that get worse each week: Vanderbilt (then 81, now 127), Ole Miss (then 92, now 107).
Bracketmatrix High Seed: 7 seed
Bracketmatrix Low Seed: 12 seed
Bracketmatrix composite: 9 seed
So, that’s where we stand with just three weeks of the regular season in front of us. ‘Bama has three winnable home games, even if Florida and Arkansas will be formidable, and don’t sleep on LSU’s talent. Those are interspersed with three absolutely brutal road contests.
The Tide’s best bet to steal one is in College Station. If any team in the conference not named “Kentucky” is justifiably upset, it has to be the Aggies. Between injuries, suspensions, and incoherent play for stretches throughout the season, a Top 10 team is instead staring at a .500 record in conference play and may not even hit 20 wins this season.
Kentucky’s veneer of invincibility has taken a hit this season, particularly at Rupp (this team was swept by Tennessee, after all.) Alabama has not traditionally played well in Lexington (or the ‘Cats for that matter,) but this year is the best shot in a over a decade for the Tide to get a road win there.
As with Kentucky, Alabama has also not traditionally fared well in Auburn either. As much as it pains me to say, of the remaining six games on the schedule with the potential to get out of hand, I think the road contest in West Georgia may be it. Alabama has not beaten Auburn as a ranked team since 2005. They’ve gone gone 3-5 against AU this decade, but only two ‘Barn wins have been by single digits — Alabama’s average road loss in the series is by 13.8 points.
BUT, we are where we thought we’d be at the half-way point of the season though, with Alabama firmly in the tournament just needing to lock down some wins at home and throw a few punches on the road...just in case they land one.
That alone is an improvement over the past decade.