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Win totals, Heisman odds, and national championship odds came out last night, and mercy there are some good ones if you’re looking for value. I’ll supply one from each conference:
SEC: Alabama at 10 1⁄2 regular season wins. Quick, look at schedule and show me two losses? I’ll wait. BONUS: Tennessee isn’t winning even six games this year, so go ahead and book your bet on under 6 1/2 .
BIG 12: Baylor at 5 1⁄2 wins. Take the under on this. Matt Rhule is a good coach, and he’s trying to clean up the sty in Waco, but three successive years of devastated recruiting classes and a shift to a more defensive-focused team have functioned as a de facto death penalty. The Big 12 may not have as many elite teams this season, but it’s got more than enough decent teams to hold the Bears to 1 or 2 conference wins This team is still closer to four wins than six.
ACC: Miami over 8 1⁄2. The Canes may not go much over; 9-10 wins looks to be the ceiling. But a four-loss campaign in what looks to be a down year for the ACC would be a disaster in Coral Gables, especially with conference foil Jimbo Fisher off to perpetual 8-4 records in College Station.
Big 10: Michigan over 8 1/2. This is it, Harbaugh. No excuses. Penn State and Sparty are at home. You finally have a QB. There’s finally a little bit of depth at OL. The running game is solid. Let’s just go ahead and cede that road loss to Ohio State...again. The biggest questions are whether the Wolverines can get wins away from the Big House at Northwestern and Notre Dame. That latter game is especially huge: a nice win in front of Touchdown Jesus should signal a strong year.
Pac 12: This is the year the wheels fall off for Helton in Hollywood. This team won with offense, and all of the playmakers are gone. It hasn’t done enough this offseason to convince me that it has the mental toughness to get past a Division that will only get harder with Chip Kelly in town. Bit of a reach, but give me under 7 1⁄2 wins for the Trojans: 7-5 seems about right.
College Football Win Totals
Alabama 10½
Auburn 8½
Baylor 5½
Clemson 10½
Florida 7½
Florida State 8½
Georgia 10½
Louisville 7½
LSU 6½
Miami 8½
Michigan 8½
Michigan State 7½
Mississippi State 7½
Missouri 6½
North Carolina State 7½
Notre Dame 8½
Ohio State 9½
Oklahoma 10½
Oklahoma State 7½
Penn State 9½
South Carolina 7½
Stanford 9½
TCU 8½
Tennessee 6½
Texas 8½
Texas A&M 7½
UCF 8½
USC 7½
Virginia Tech 7½
Washington 8½
West Virginia 7½
Wisconsin 9½
Alabama: YES -220 / NO +175
Clemson: YES -105 / NO -125
Georgia: YES +175 / NO -220
Michigan: YES +220 / NO -280
Ohio State: YES +150 / NO -180
Penn State: YES +300 / NO -400
Bryce Love (Stanford) 5/1
Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin) +650
Jake Fromm (Georgia) 10/1
Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) 10/1
Khalil Tate (Arizona) 14/1
Shea Patterson (Michigan) 16/1
Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) 20/1
JK Dobbins (Ohio State) 20/1
Will Grier (West Virginia) 20/1
Trace McSorley (Penn State) 20/1
Jalen Hurts (Alabama) 20/1
Jarrett Stidham (Auburn) 25/1
Cam Akers (Florida State) 25/1
Rodney Anderson (Oklahoma) 25/1
Sam Ehlinger (Texas) 25/1
AJ Dillon (Boston College) 25/1
Kelly Bryant (Clemson) 33/1
Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State) 33/1
Justin Herbert (Oregon) 33/1
Deondre Francois (Florida State) 33/1
DAndre Swift (Georgia) 33/1
McKenzie Milton (UCF) 33/1
Drew Lock (Missouri) 33/1
Brandon Wimbush (Notre Dame) 33/1
Nick Fitzgerald (Mississippi State) 33/1
Jake Browning (Washington) 50/1
KJ Costello (Stanford) 50/1
Ed Oliver (Houston) 50/1
Travis Etienne (Clemson) 50/1
National Championship Winner
Alabama +225
Clemson +650
Ohio State 7/1
Georgia 7/1
Michigan 14/1
Penn State 18/1
Wisconsin 20/1
Auburn 25/1
Miami 25/1
Oklahoma 25/1
Washington 25/1
Florida State 28/1
Michigan State 33/1
LSU 33/1
Notre Dame 33/1
Texas 40/1
USC 40/1
Virginia Tech 50/1
West Virginia 50/1
Stanford 50/1
Texas A&M 66/1
TCU 100/1
UCF 100/1
Oregon 100/1
Oklahoma State 100/1
Texas Tech 150/1
UCLA 150/1