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Jumbo Package: Gump Day!

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No, LSU DOES NOT have three top-10 wins.

NCAA Football: Tennessee at Alabama Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

It was the second consecutive day Tagovailoa took part in the part of practice when reporters could be present and television cameras could tape him.

AL.com’s Matt Zenitz reported earlier Tuesday that Tagovailoa is expected to play Saturday against LSU and that he’ll likely look healthier and less limited than what most outsiders are probably expecting.

Your daily Tua Tagovailoa update. As usual, don’t put too much stock into anything. Nick Saban is only letting us see what he wants us to see. We’ll know just how healthy Tua is at 2:30 on Saturday, and not a moment before.

But it’s fun sitting around and scrounging for scraps anyway.

The game will pit the two most explosive passing attacks in the SEC against defenses that are good, but not vintage. LSU leads the league in passing plays longer than 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 yards. Alabama is either second or tied for first in all those categories, and leads the league is pass plays longer than 70 and 80 yards.

Defensively, the Tide have allowed just six passes longer than 30 yards, one longer than 40 and none longer than that. LSU has given up eight of 30 or more yards and two of 40 or more. Both teams are likely to give up more big plays Saturday than they have in any game this season.

Ultimately, it says here that Alabama’s school-record 31-game home winning streak will reach 32. LSU’s losing streak to the Tide will reach nine. And Trump will hear more cheers than jeers.

Dash pick: Alabama 38, LSU 35.

This one is a decently lengthy piece from Pat Forde of Sports Illustrated about a multitude of topics surrounding the upcoming game. I personally don’t think this one will come down to a 3 point game. I think it’s going to be a 10-14 point game. I just haven’t decided which team is which yet.

I also like that he mentions the last time Alabama was the lower ranked team in a game was in 2015. And the last time Alabama lost as a lower ranked team was in 2011. We’ve had it very, very good, folks.

Alabama’s pass defense (13th, 180.1 yards allowed per game) ranks substantially higher than LSU’s (60th, 217.5). The Crimson Tide’s level of play has also been substantially different: Alabama’s only ranked opponent this season, Texas A&M, has since dropped out of the polls, while LSU has three victories over top 10 opponents.

Can we PLEASE stop doing this now? If you’re going to dock Texas A&M from Alabama’s schedule for dropping out of being ranked, why do you insist on calling Texas a top-ten win? And Auburn, who’s now ranked 12th, for that matter. It’s lousy data manipulation, and, quite honestly, straight up dishonesty for the sake of manufacturing a narrative. I’m fine with calling Texas a top-10 win if you say that Alabama has a top-25 win.

Or just say that that LSU has two top-15 wins and Alabama has no ranked wins. That’s honest, and still emphasizes that LSU has had the better resume.

Dishonesty just makes me angry.

So let’s meet in the middle and say the most likely line will be Alabama -10.

Here’s the full list of games Nick Saban’s Alabama teams have lost outright as a betting favorite of 10 points or more (according to Covers.com data):

-Lost to Louisiana-Monroe on Nov. 17, 2007, as 24-point favorites (most infamous game of the Saban era).

-Lost to Texas A&M on Nov. 10, 2012, as 13.5-point favorites (Johnny Manziel Heisman Trophy season).

-Lost at Auburn on Nov. 30, 2013, as 10-point favorites (Kick Six).

-Lost vs. Oklahoma on Nov. 2, 2014 as 17-point favorites (bowl game played with Kick Six emotional hangover).

Alabama is unlikely to try another 57-yard field goal if the Iron Bowl is tied at the end of regulation, and Bo Nix isn’t going to win the Heisman Trophy this season. The other two games Alabama lost are situational spots that aren’t applicable to this month, assuming Alabama beats Mississippi State and Western Carolina.

In other words, barring some cow-pasture voodoo, it’s unlikely Alabama loses to Auburn this season.

Bryce Young, 5-star QB, Pasadena (Calif.) Mater Dei -- 17 of 17 passing for 373 yards and 5 touchdowns in a 51-14 win over JSerra Catholic.

Drew Sanders, 5-star ATH, Denton (Texas) Ryan -- 3 carries for 22 yards and a touchdown; 2 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown in a 61-13 win over Grapevine.

247 has stat recaps for every Tide commit, but I decided to highlight two of the Tide’s future 5 stars. First, Bryce Young didn’t throw a single incomplete pass against a nationally ranked high school team.

And then Drew Sanders, set to be a linebacker, is also averaging over 7 yards per carry as a running back and 35 yards per catch as a wide receiver. He’s 6’5”. Consider me excited about that potential.

The difference in this game could come down to this: The Alabama pass rush from the edge. Alabama has two of the best pass rushers in all of college football in 6-foot-3, 259-pound Anfernee Jennings and 6-foot-5, 252 pound Terrell Lewis. Jennings has a pass rush PFF grade of 88.8 and has 16 quarterback hurries on the season with four sacks. Lewis has a ridiculous PFF pass-rushing grade of 90.9 and has 23 quarterback hurries with six sacks. If Jennings and Lewis are able to distribute heat on the quarterback this Saturday, the pressure could force LSU quarterback Joe Burrow to either get moving out of the pocket and make bad decisions.

Finally, this is a really good piece from Rivals breaking down every positional matchup for the upcoming game. I have to agree here that Jennings and Lewis might be the most critical players for Alabama this weekend. If those two can end 2-3 drives at the right time, the Alabama offense should be able to win from there.