It obviously doesn’t really matter at this point where Alabama is ranked by the committee since there is zero playoff chance, unless you have a particular affinity for the Sugar Bowl over the Orange or Cotton, but it’s still interesting to measure their performance in the advanced metrics. Poor Bill Connelly knows he is going to get more hate mail this week.
Alabama's post-game win expectancy vs. Auburn: 94%.— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 1, 2019
That win expectancy is based on what happened on each individual play. Auburn scored three very unlikely points at the end of the first half, while on the 100-yard pick six Alabama was denied seven very likely points and Auburn gained seven more unlikely points.
What does this mean?
welp...— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 1, 2019
UPDATED SP+ TOP 10
1 Ohio St (still 99.5 pctile)
2 Bama, of course
7 Utah (up 1)
8 Florida (up 1)
9 Penn St (down 2)
10 Wisconsin (up 2)
* UGA now 1st on D and in spec tms
* Hawaii, CMU, UK all rose 11+ spots
* UCLA, Troy, NC ST all fell 11+
Alabama also held its spot in ESPN FPI.
So, basically, when the Tide’s play is measured against the level of competition, they should be in position to make the playoff right now, and I think most who watched the Iron Bowl understand the amount of luck that went into that loss.
I’m curious: does this make you feel better or worse about the season? Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.