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Giving Away Money: SEC Week One picks against the spread to enhance your filthy lucre

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Picks against the points to stick it to your man.

Las Vegas

2019 Regular Season: 116-74-4
2019-2020 Bowl Season: 14-5
2019 Mortal Lock Of The Week: 13-3
OVERALL: 130-88-5 (61%)

‘Twas a very good season we had here in 2019 — 61% overall and 13-3 (81%) in our mortal lock of the week (all against the spread). And, believe or not, the foosball is soon to be upon us again. Week One lines have dropped for the SEC, so we’ll tackle this today. When we get a full slate in 2-3 weeks, we’ll do the action for the rest of the country.

Without further ado, let me give away some money to you. Those TrumpBuckz were made for gambling.

Long Shots Worth A Shot

Aggie (-37) vs. Vanderbilt — I wouldn’t like this number in the middle of the season, and I really really don’t like this number to open up the season. But, it’s Vandy on the road against Jimbo’s most veteran and talented team to date. It’s also team that is going to muscle them around for 60 minutes. I don’t see the offense here for the ‘Dores, much less do I see a front seven that can stop A&M from rolling to an easy 300+ yards on the ground. Bettors will be sweating it late, but I think Aggie covers 44-3. If Aggie screws around here, or they’ve not made demonstrable gains in the offseason on defense, Jimbo needs to refund that $10 million-per.

Upset of the Week

Florida (-9.5) at Ole Miss — The Rebels have spent the last two years playing anyone with a pulse. And, despite the sanctions, they have managed to amass a decent little pool of talent, particularly in the running game and some individually talented players in the secondary. Florida should win this game by about 10-13 point, at least on paper. But, the way that the Rebels play is just designed to give the Gators fits. They find the edge, they exploit the edge, and they will wear out those runs to the sideline and zone-reads. When UF has had issues of late, it has been because of their inability to maintain leverage and control the perimeter. Their DBs frankly don’t like to tackle. You get the feeling that they must in this one, as Lane has spent about 7 months working on ways to get the Gators moving East-West for 60 minutes. Kyle Trask is alleged to be the most elite thing in the East this season. But, with all three of the Gators’ top WRs opting-out this season, one wonders who will get the ball?
I’m not quite confident enough to call for an outright upset, but there is a new sheriff in town, and I do not trust Dan Mullen on the road whatsoever. The Rebels will surprise this year (I have them personally finishing T-3rd in the West). Might this be where they announce they are players in the SEC again? Don’t be too surprised if it happens, but for now, settle for a nail-biter as the Rebs make it a lot closer than the rankings suggest. Florida 33 — Ole Miss 30

Bet The House, Baby!

Auburn (-11) vs. Kentucky — Auburn is known for slow starts in September, but that’s usually when they’re dicking around against FCS teams. October middle-of-the-SEC-schedule Barn is a bit more ferocious. I expect more of an October Auburn than a September Auburn. Despite their losses on defense, AU is just so much better along both lines. Worse, I don’t see anything resembling a consistent offensive identity for the ‘Cats here, at least not one that can negate Auburn’s formidable home advantage. It’ll be an old school physical game, and that favors Gus’s bunch big-time. Auburn 23 — Kentucky 10

Georgia (-24) at Arkansas — LOL. Even Kirby’s affinity for immobile white quarterbacks chunking 3-yard passes won’t stop the ‘Dawgs from accidentally running this up. Arkansas won’t win an SEC game this year...for the third season in a row. It just so happens they get off to a much harder start than usual. I have no idea why this spread isn’t in the 30s...at least. Kirby is going to punish Sam Pittman for daring to leave his ‘Dawgs UGA 48 — Arkansas 10

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 30 Georgia at Georgia Tech Photo by David John Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Not With a 10’ Pole and Stolen Money

LSU (-26) vs. Mississippi State. Thank god for Arkansas, elsewise this ‘State team would be the worst in the division. Transfers didn’t help matters either. But, LSU has been absolutely decimated. And, resting on ones laurels t home, against a brand spanking new offense that is going to be a giant PITA week in and week out, I just don’t like the number here. LSU could win by 38. They could also stagger around like a drunk and win by 13. Brennan isn’t as good as he will look against a defense-averse Mike Leach. Just bear that in mind. It will be interesting to see what happens when Costello gets a chance to throw 60 times a game, and especially against a talented-but-questionable LSU secondary that sustained offseason losses.

Mortal Lock Of The Week

Alabama (-19.5) at Mizzou — This spread should be at least a touchdown higher. Over Nick Saban’s first ten seasons, Alabama’s average SEC MOV was 25.5 PPG. The last three years, it has ballooned to about 29 PPG. And that sounds about right for this game. Missouri is just a team. Eli is a good coach, but this Mizzou team is going to be serving up some #butt. A healthy, focused Alabama team comes out with a statement win and we get to see the future when Bryce Young and Trey Sanders come on in the second half. Alabama 47 Missouri 13

Week One Unwatchable Filth:

South Carolina vs. Tennessee (PK) — If this game were in Tennessee, I’d like the Vols. But, I don’t believe the hype from this UT squad. They beat three teams that went to bowl games last season — UAB, Missouri, and Kentucky. Real murderers’ row there, I’m telling ya’. Along the way, they were smashed by every competent Eastern team, got shut down by BYU, and lost to Directional Georgia. Going into 2020, UT still has questions at QB, was denied the services of Cade Mays (at least for the moment. And, damn, does Kirby run a gulag over there in Athens), and has just blech coaching across the board.

The Gamecocks do have some dynamic offensive playmakers, though they had serious losses on defense. Fortunately, this is the kind of game they can survive on offense alone. It’s a Pick’em for a reason. Two servings of butt on the same plate, with two former Sabanites who are — or should be — on the hot seat in a normal year.

If you were to die and find yourself in hell, St. Peter would hands you a remote and every channel is an endless Will Muschamp — Jeremy Pruitt game. He who makes the fewest dumb decisions wins. But it will be incalculably dumb, so don’t make a drinking game out of it.

Do, however, take the ‘Cocks by one score at home in the most miserable Summer city in the SEC. The weather in Columbia will matter to the high altitude, less-humid, far-more-temperate Knoxville visitors. USCe 30 — UT 26

Poll

Most likely Week One Upset

This poll is closed

  • 47%
    Ole Miss vs. Florida
    (99 votes)
  • 41%
    Kentucky at Auburn
    (87 votes)
  • 10%
    Other
    (22 votes)
208 votes total Vote Now

Your turn. Where am I right? How am I stupid? What SEC town has the crappiest weather in summer?