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Giving Away Money Lagniappe: Weeknight Extra Edition

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The first of two GAM for this week.

Las Vegas

Howdy, folks. I actually did my work on time this week. And I even got to it early!

So, I thought I’d make up for the last three weeks, when I’ve been running around with my hair on fire, by giving you a two-fer GAM this week.

The first piece will be some of the weeknight games, with a link to some off-the-radar picks for Week 8, as well as what data suggest see saw from this past weekend. Gratis. And then tomorrow we’ll have some more for you.

Again, sorry I’ve been dilatory: it’s been a long, bad, hard-ass three weeks. So, here are five extras for you, as well as one to skip.

We’ll be back tomorrow. And may you prosper like the Gigachads you are.

Average RBR reader
  • Looking for tonight’s Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State game? It’s right here; alongside the Alabama game, South Alabama, and some takeaways from last week.
  • Washington -18 at Arizona — I know. I know. The P12 does dumb, bad things. But UDub at -18 at Arizona is a solid play.
    Analytically, the Wildcats are still sitting at about +22 after UA’s home adjustment (one of the worst in the P12, BTW, at just 2.12 points). But today came news that Arizona’s lone bright spot, starting QB, is now a liability: Gunner Cruz will miss the rest of the year. And the CI is through the roof here too (over 90%).
    A harassing road win for the Huskies is predicted.
    UW 32 Arizona 10 at 94%.
  • Want a game to skip? We are going to steer clear of that UNCC (-7) vs. FAU tilt. Not only do the data fall right outside the spread, but the margin of error is almost 2 full points at just 85% CI.
    I think that the Miners will win, but 1. the FAU defense is going to be tough, and 2. Every analytical data point suggests it’s going to be a close game; too close to take this one either way. The algorithm says UNCC -6.2 with a +/- 2.91 point margin of error, at a CI of 85%. Too close to call.
  • Notre Dame -7 vs. USC — I can only conclude that this is a Jersey Game, one designed to entice casuals with big name, traditional programs. The action has stayed steady at -7 since the line opened Monday at 12:01, so it’s working.
    People see something in the Trojans that the numbers (or eyeballs, or USC road performances) simply do not. Added to that is that Southern Cal has been an awful road dog. Going back a full dozen years, they’re just 8-18 ATS as a road underdog. And this recruiting class is even worse: 1-5 ATS as road underdogs.
    I don’t like where this SC team is at. I don’t like how they play on the road. I don’t like all the turnovers and indifferent defense, and above all I hate the secondary. Notre Dame’s passing game is going to look quite competent on Saturday.
    USC will score some points. But for that, I can see no analytical or commonsense grounds for defying the algorithm here.
    Notre Dame -12.84, MOE +/- 3.14 at CI 88%