FanPost

Extra graphs week 12 vs Arkansas 2021

As always this is an addendum to balloons' All the Graphs from Alabama vs. Arkansas

Newish graph

While thinking about our early season high SRs on 3rd as balloons has pointed out, I started thinking about what those numbers mean. One thing that occurred to me is that there are likely to be more 1st downs than 2nd and more 2nd downs than 3rd, hence the difference between the SR by Drive by Down calculated by Down and SR by Drive by Down calculated by Drive. (I really need to rename those!) Looking at the tables (added at the bottom of this post in case anyone wants to look at them) didn't help...

So I decided to add an annotation to an existing chart. I took the Offensive Drives by Drive and added the down for each play. Now looking at the SR by Drive by Down calculated by Down (reproduced below) we can see that on Drive 3 we are at a SR of 1.0 for both 2nd and 3rd downs and 0.6 for 1st downs. But looking at the Offensive Drives by Drive annotated with Downs below, we can see that there were 5 first downs, 3 second downs, and only 1 third down. So I looked back at my charts with this in mind and only looked at the drives with a SR of 1.0. The table below has only has four teams because I haven't had time to write code to collect this data and I had to eyeball it. But I think it is a pretty good represenataive sample of our games:

Team Drive # 1st # 2nd # 3rd # 4th
Miami 1 4 2 1 0
3 5 4 1 0
5 4 2 1 0
7 1 1 1 0
8 2 2 1 0
Florida 1 4 3 1 0
2 3 3 1 0
3 3 2 1 0
8 5 4 3 0
TAMU 1 4 3 3 0
11 4 3 2 0
TN 1 5 4 3 0
3 3 1 1 0
4 4 2 1 0
5 6 4 2 0
10 5 4 2 0
11 2 1 1 0
12 2 1 1 0
13 2 2 1 0
14 2 1 1 0

The pattern seems to continue for all of our games. I'm not sure that this proves anything, but I thought it was interesting and I need time to sort the data out.
Alabama:

Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-e9-drive-fac-down

Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-e6-success-drive-bar-down

Arkansas:

Arkansas-2021-wk12-Alabama-e9-drive-fac-down

Here are the rest of the extra graphs.

Alabama:


Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-01-success-drive-bar

Alabama, 2021, wk12, Success rate by drive table vs Arkansas
Drive Total Successful Unsuccessful Success rate Scoring drive
1 11 4 7 0.3636364 FALSE
2 3 0 3 0.0000000 FALSE
3 9 7 2 0.7777778 TRUE
4 6 2 4 0.3333333 FALSE
5 2 1 1 0.5000000 TRUE
6 6 5 1 0.8333333 TRUE
7 1 1 0 1.0000000 FALSE
8 9 7 2 0.7777778 TRUE
9 8 3 5 0.3750000 FALSE
10 8 4 4 0.5000000 FALSE
11 7 4 3 0.5714286 FALSE
12 4 2 2 0.5000000 TRUE
13 2 0 2 0.0000000 FALSE



Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-02-drive-fac

Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-03-drive

Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-04-all4-downs-fac

Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-05-all4-downs-fac-noscale

Alabama, 2021, wk12, Success by down table vs Arkansas
Down Total Successful Unsuccessful TD/1st
1 37 17 20 9
2 27 17 10 15
3 11 6 5 6
4 1 0 1 0



Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-06-yards-success-gained

Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-07-drive-extra-yards-gained

Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-08-drive-yards-to-success

Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-09-fac-yards-to-success

Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-e5-drive-success-play

Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-e6-success-drive-bar-down

Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-e7-success-drive-bar-down2

Alabama-2021-wk12-Arkansas-e8-success-drive-down-bar-yards-to-goal-fac

Arkansas:


Arkansas-2021-wk12-Alabama-01-success-drive-bar

Arkansas, 2021, wk12, Success rate by drive table vs Alabama
Drive Total Successful Unsuccessful Success rate Scoring drive
1 5 1 4 0.2000000 FALSE
2 1 0 1 0.0000000 FALSE
3 8 3 5 0.3750000 FALSE
4 3 0 3 0.0000000 FALSE
5 13 8 5 0.6153846 TRUE
6 7 6 1 0.8571429 TRUE
7 5 2 3 0.4000000 FALSE
8 3 2 1 0.6666667 TRUE
9 3 0 3 0.0000000 FALSE
10 10 5 5 0.5000000 TRUE
11 3 0 3 0.0000000 FALSE
12 12 6 6 0.5000000 TRUE



Arkansas-2021-wk12-Alabama-02-drive-fac

Arkansas-2021-wk12-Alabama-03-drive

Arkansas-2021-wk12-Alabama-04-all4-downs-fac

Arkansas-2021-wk12-Alabama-05-all4-downs-fac-noscale

Arkansas, 2021, wk12, Success by down table vs Alabama
Down Total Successful Unsuccessful TD/1st
1 29 10 19 3
2 25 13 12 8
3 16 7 9 7
4 3 3 0 3



Arkansas-2021-wk12-Alabama-06-yards-success-gained

Arkansas-2021-wk12-Alabama-07-drive-extra-yards-gained

Arkansas-2021-wk12-Alabama-08-drive-yards-to-success

Arkansas-2021-wk12-Alabama-09-fac-yards-to-success

Arkansas-2021-wk12-Alabama-e5-drive-success-play

Arkansas-2021-wk12-Alabama-e6-success-drive-bar-down

Arkansas-2021-wk12-Alabama-e7-success-drive-bar-down2

Arkansas-2021-wk12-Alabama-e8-success-drive-down-bar-yards-to-goal-fac

Alabama, 2021, wk12, Success rate by drive each Down success calculated seperately table vs Arkansas
Drive Down Total Total for Drive Successful Unsuccessful Success rate by Down Success rate Scoring drive
1 1 4 11 1 3 0.2500000 0.3636364 FALSE
1 2 4 11 2 2 0.5000000 0.3636364 FALSE
1 3 2 11 1 1 0.5000000 0.3636364 FALSE
1 4 1 11 0 1 0.0000000 0.3636364 FALSE
2 1 1 3 0 1 0.0000000 0.0000000 FALSE
2 2 1 3 0 1 0.0000000 0.0000000 FALSE
2 3 1 3 0 1 0.0000000 0.0000000 FALSE
2 4 0 3 0 0 NaN 0.0000000 FALSE
3 1 5 9 3 2 0.6000000 0.7777778 TRUE
3 2 3 9 3 0 1.0000000 0.7777778 TRUE
3 3 1 9 1 0 1.0000000 0.7777778 TRUE
3 4 0 9 0 0 NaN 0.7777778 TRUE
4 1 2 6 1 1 0.5000000 0.3333333 FALSE
4 2 2 6 0 2 0.0000000 0.3333333 FALSE
4 3 2 6 1 1 0.5000000 0.3333333 FALSE
4 4 0 6 0 0 NaN 0.3333333 FALSE
5 1 1 2 0 1 0.0000000 0.5000000 TRUE
5 2 1 2 1 0 1.0000000 0.5000000 TRUE
5 3 0 2 0 0 NaN 0.5000000 TRUE
5 4 0 2 0 0 NaN 0.5000000 TRUE
6 1 4 6 3 1 0.7500000 0.8333333 TRUE
6 2 2 6 2 0 1.0000000 0.8333333 TRUE
6 3 0 6 0 0 NaN 0.8333333 TRUE
6 4 0 6 0 0 NaN 0.8333333 TRUE
7 1 1 1 1 0 1.0000000 1.0000000 FALSE
7 2 0 1 0 0 NaN 1.0000000 FALSE
7 3 0 1 0 0 NaN 1.0000000 FALSE
7 4 0 1 0 0 NaN 1.0000000 FALSE
8 1 5 9 3 2 0.6000000 0.7777778 TRUE
8 2 3 9 3 0 1.0000000 0.7777778 TRUE
8 3 1 9 1 0 1.0000000 0.7777778 TRUE
8 4 0 9 0 0 NaN 0.7777778 TRUE
9 1 3 8 0 3 0.0000000 0.3750000 FALSE
9 2 3 8 2 1 0.6666667 0.3750000 FALSE
9 3 2 8 1 1 0.5000000 0.3750000 FALSE
9 4 0 8 0 0 NaN 0.3750000 FALSE
10 1 4 8 2 2 0.5000000 0.5000000 FALSE
10 2 3 8 2 1 0.6666667 0.5000000 FALSE
10 3 1 8 0 1 0.0000000 0.5000000 FALSE
10 4 0 8 0 0 NaN 0.5000000 FALSE
11 1 4 7 2 2 0.5000000 0.5714286 FALSE
11 2 3 7 2 1 0.6666667 0.5714286 FALSE
11 3 0 7 0 0 NaN 0.5714286 FALSE
11 4 0 7 0 0 NaN 0.5714286 FALSE
12 1 2 4 1 1 0.5000000 0.5000000 TRUE
12 2 1 4 0 1 0.0000000 0.5000000 TRUE
12 3 1 4 1 0 1.0000000 0.5000000 TRUE
12 4 0 4 0 0 NaN 0.5000000 TRUE
13 1 1 2 0 1 0.0000000 0.0000000 FALSE
13 2 1 2 0 1 0.0000000 0.0000000 FALSE
13 3 0 2 0 0 NaN 0.0000000 FALSE
13 4 0 2 0 0 NaN 0.0000000 FALSE


Alabama, 2021, wk12, Success rate by drive each Down success calculated together table {2} vs Arkansas
Drive Down Total Total for Drive Successful Unsuccessful Success rate by Down Success rate Scoring drive
1 1 4 11 1 3 0.0909091 0.0909091 FALSE
1 2 4 11 2 2 0.1818182 0.0909091 FALSE
1 3 2 11 1 1 0.0909091 0.0909091 FALSE
1 4 1 11 0 1 0.0000000 0.0909091 FALSE
2 1 1 3 0 1 0.0000000 0.0000000 FALSE
2 2 1 3 0 1 0.0000000 0.0000000 FALSE
2 3 1 3 0 1 0.0000000 0.0000000 FALSE
2 4 0 3 0 0 0.0000000 0.0000000 FALSE
3 1 5 9 3 2 0.3333333 0.1944444 TRUE
3 2 3 9 3 0 0.3333333 0.1944444 TRUE
3 3 1 9 1 0 0.1111111 0.1944444 TRUE
3 4 0 9 0 0 0.0000000 0.1944444 TRUE
4 1 2 6 1 1 0.1666667 0.0833333 FALSE
4 2 2 6 0 2 0.0000000 0.0833333 FALSE
4 3 2 6 1 1 0.1666667 0.0833333 FALSE
4 4 0 6 0 0 0.0000000 0.0833333 FALSE
5 1 1 2 0 1 0.0000000 0.1250000 TRUE
5 2 1 2 1 0 0.5000000 0.1250000 TRUE
5 3 0 2 0 0 0.0000000 0.1250000 TRUE
5 4 0 2 0 0 0.0000000 0.1250000 TRUE
6 1 4 6 3 1 0.5000000 0.2083333 TRUE
6 2 2 6 2 0 0.3333333 0.2083333 TRUE
6 3 0 6 0 0 0.0000000 0.2083333 TRUE
6 4 0 6 0 0 0.0000000 0.2083333 TRUE
7 1 1 1 1 0 1.0000000 0.2500000 FALSE
7 2 0 1 0 0 0.0000000 0.2500000 FALSE
7 3 0 1 0 0 0.0000000 0.2500000 FALSE
7 4 0 1 0 0 0.0000000 0.2500000 FALSE
8 1 5 9 3 2 0.3333333 0.1944444 TRUE
8 2 3 9 3 0 0.3333333 0.1944444 TRUE
8 3 1 9 1 0 0.1111111 0.1944444 TRUE
8 4 0 9 0 0 0.0000000 0.1944444 TRUE
9 1 3 8 0 3 0.0000000 0.0937500 FALSE
9 2 3 8 2 1 0.2500000 0.0937500 FALSE
9 3 2 8 1 1 0.1250000 0.0937500 FALSE
9 4 0 8 0 0 0.0000000 0.0937500 FALSE
10 1 4 8 2 2 0.2500000 0.1250000 FALSE
10 2 3 8 2 1 0.2500000 0.1250000 FALSE
10 3 1 8 0 1 0.0000000 0.1250000 FALSE
10 4 0 8 0 0 0.0000000 0.1250000 FALSE
11 1 4 7 2 2 0.2857143 0.1428571 FALSE
11 2 3 7 2 1 0.2857143 0.1428571 FALSE
11 3 0 7 0 0 0.0000000 0.1428571 FALSE
11 4 0 7 0 0 0.0000000 0.1428571 FALSE
12 1 2 4 1 1 0.2500000 0.1250000 TRUE
12 2 1 4 0 1 0.0000000 0.1250000 TRUE
12 3 1 4 1 0 0.2500000 0.1250000 TRUE
12 4 0 4 0 0 0.0000000 0.1250000 TRUE
13 1 1 2 0 1 0.0000000 0.0000000 FALSE
13 2 1 2 0 1 0.0000000 0.0000000 FALSE
13 3 0 2 0 0 0.0000000 0.0000000 FALSE
13 4 0 2 0 0 0.0000000 0.0000000 FALSE


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