Giving Away Money: Alabama NFL Rookie Prop Bets and Analysis

Check these out from Josh Barton over at SportsBetting.AG. I’ll break the NFL Rookie props down into two groups — ‘Bama props and then the rest:

Non-Alabama Rookie Props

Will Justin Fields start Week 1 of regular season

Yes +350

No -600

Player with most INTs

Jevon Holland -120

Trevon Moehrigh-Woodard II -120

Player with most sacks

Micah Parsons -140

Zaven Collins +100

Will Trey Lance start before 49ers bye week?

Yes +300

No -500

Trevor Lawrence passing yards

Over 4250

Under 4250

Trevor Lawrence passing TDs

Over 27

Under 27

Trevor Lawrence rushing yards

Over 300

Under 300

Trevor Lawrence rushing TDs

Over 4

Under 4

Trevor Lawrence passing INTs

Over 12

Under 12

Trevor Lawrence passing yards

Over 3750

Under 3750

Trevor Lawrence passing TDs

Over 22

Under 22

Trevor Lawrence passing INTs

Over 14

Under 14

Ja’Marr Chase receiving yards

Over 1100

Under 1100

Ja’Marr Chase receiving TDs

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Kyle Pitts receiving TDs

Over 6

Under 6

Kyle Pitts receiving yards

Over 800

Under 800

Player with most rushing yards

Javonte Williams -150

Travis Etienne +110

Player with most TDs

Javonte Williams -130

Travis Etienne -110

Player with most receiving yards

Kadarius Toney -175

Rashod Bateman +135

Player with most receiving yards

Elijah Moore +150

Rondale Moore +200

Terrace Marshall Jr. +400

Tutu Atwell +400

D’Wayne Eskridge +750

Kwity Paye total sacks

Over 5

Under 5

Jaelan Phillips total sacks

Over 6

Under 6

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There are quite a few I like in the non-Bama category. Notably:

• Kyle Pitts UNDER 800 yards receiving, but OVER 6 TDs. Given the Falcons strong receiving corps and mediocre-to-assy running game, look for Pitts to clean up in the Red Zone. He’s unstoppable on a safety or linebacker.
• I like Ja’Marr Chase to go OVER on both yard (1100) and TDs (7.5). AJ Green just isn’t that guy any more — even if he’s healthy and even if he were to return, instead of being exiled to Arizona. But as much as he needs targets, the Bengals stupidly passed on getting Burrow some line help instead. Godspeed staying upright.
• I like Trevor Lawrence to go UNDER 22 TDs passing, and OVER 12 INTS. NFL DBs are going to eat that slow-ass delivery alive. Urbz brought in Ettienne obviously to give Sunshine more manageAble throws from CU’s playbook, but that east-west offense is going be a lot harder to run in the NFL.
• And, because Urban loves ruining quarterbacks, and because Sunshine has no great experience working the middle of the field, look for Lawrence to go OVER 400 yards rushing and OVER 4 rushing scores. I see happy feet in his future once those sideline routes are covered and ETN has little daylight on swing passes.
• Micah Parsons WILL have more sacks than Zevan Collins.
• Justin Fields WILL NOT be the Bears Game 1 starter. That dude is ragged.
• Trey Lance WILL NOT be the 49ers starter by their bye week. That dude couldn’t start at Ole Miss.

Photo by Stephen Lew/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Alabama Rookie Props

Will Mac Jones start Week 1 of regular season

Yes +300

No -500

Player with most INTs

Jaycee Horn -120

Patrick Surtain II -120

Jaylen Waddle receiving yards

Over 800

Under 800

Jaylen Waddle total TDs

Over 7

Under 7

DeVonta Smith receiving yards

Over 900

Under 900

DeVonta Smith total TDs

Over 7

Under 7

Najee Harris rushing yards

Over 1000

Under 1000

Najee Harris total TDs

Over 8

Under 8

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As with the non-’Bama players, I like a lot of these, as well:

• Devonta Smith will go UNDER 900 yards receiving, and it won’t entirely be his fault. Ask Calvin Ridley what it’s like to bust your ass to get wide open and...well...you know. And, because of limitations in the Eagles’ passing game, I suspect he goes UNDER 7 TDs as well. (The wildcard in all this is the incredibly shitty defenses in the NFC East.)
• Jaylen Waddle WILL go over 7 total TDs. I’m uncertain about the yards. But look for this guy to be moved all over the field, be put on return teams, and take end-arounds etc. He’s a weapon and a scorer. But will he be someone who logs 700 yards just through the air his first season? He can, though I suspect he’s moved around too much to be strictly a WR option.
• Jaycee Horn WILL have more INTs than PSII. Which of these guys you prefer depends on what you want in your corner. Do you want someone with superb makeup speed, who’s great making plays with the ball in the air? Or do you want someone who’s not tested nearly as much because he’s neutralized his man? The former is Horn, and as a result of seeing more passes, he will get more INTs...and he’ll also get scorched a fair bit as well. The latter is PSII, and Surtain won’t see nearly the juicy throws his way that Horn will.
• Mac Jones WILL NOT start by Week 1 of the regular season. That’s Cam’s job to lose. But, I do think he’ll be QB2 if and when Cam gets injured. Don’t get too comfy on that pine, Joker.
• Najee Harris is going to feed in the NFL. He’s a prototype for the modern game. He’ll have OVER 8 total TDs. I don’t see him getting to 1000 yards though on the ground. Like Waddle, he’s too versatile to use purely in one role. He’ll stay in and block and he’s an outstanding receiver. I suspect he’ll make a lot of money in the passing game.