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Giving Away Money: Strength of Schedule wagering guide

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Texas A&M v Alabama Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

This is very interesting.

According to a proprietary strength-of-schedule formula developed by the odds-makers at www.SportsBettingDime.com, Arkansas, Kansas and Auburn have college football’s three toughest schedules, while the UTEP, Hawaii and Charlotte have the three easiest among the 130 Division 1 schools.

The @SBD Strength of Schedule formula is based upon opponents’ efficiency ratings from last season minus the production lost from the 2020 team; recruiting rankings; major transfers added and lost. The formula is then adjusted for each game based upon home and road games. As a point of reference, the toughest possible schedule would score 397.09, making Arkansas’ S.O.S (126.35) 31.82% of the hardest possible schedule. The easiest hypothetical schedule would score -471.94 making UTEP’s S.O.S (171.68) 36.38% of the easiest schedule.

As you would expect in the completely round-robin B12, half of its teams have, on paper, what appear to be very difficult schedules. Meanwhile, the serious CFP contenders are situated somewhere between No. 29 (UGA) and No. 50 (Alabama), with OSU, OU, and Clemson wedged ‘twixt those two.

Those title contender SOS really should come as no surprise, either. UGA and Clemson see their schedule bolstered by playing each other. While Ohio State relies almost entirely on the strength of their conference schedule. Meanwhile, Alabama has a noncon schedule that frankly sucks out loud, and If Miami has any sort of regression this season, there is not another game on the non-SEC slate that can pick up the slack.

You can also see where inexperience could derail potentially promising seasons from teams like Texas (SOS 4) and Iowa (12); or hurt chances of continued success (Florida at 12, Ole Miss at 10 and Arkansas at 1); or prevent an easy rebound year for squads like Michigan (13) and LSU (18).

For others, given their returning rosters and super-soft schedule, failure to turn in a great season should be a firing offense — look at teams like Coastal, Nevada, and Liberty (No. 121-123), or Houston (110) and Oregon (70).

You may want to consider the formula used by Sports Betting Dime when wagering on conference title odds and CFP futures. And thanks to them for providing us this information.

Complete breakdown of the entire P5 is found here, at their site.

2021 NCAAF Strength-of-Schedule Rankings

TEAM RANK SOS TOTAL

Arkansas 1 126.35
Kansas 2 118.21
Auburn 3 104.06
Texas 4 102.48
Oklahoma St 5 101.39
Baylor 6 101.11
Mississippi St 7 97.18
Kansas State 8 90.82
Notre Dame 9 87.29
Ole Miss 10 82.70
Georgia Tech 11 82.41
Iowa 12 75.31
Michigan 13 73.88
TCU 14 67.45
Purdue 15 65.64
Florida 16 65.10
Texas A&M 17 64.60
LSU 18 64.04
Texas Tech 19 62.22
Iowa State 20 60.73
Duke 21 58.47
West Virginia 22 57.65
Illinois 23 57.51
Nebraska 24 56.43
Wisconsin 25 54.27
Penn State 26 53.59
Tennessee 27 50.23
Stanford 28 50.06
Georgia 29 49.24
Rutgers 30 48.73
Florida State 31 47.14
Miami (FL) 32 45.95
Ohio State 33 45.75
Minnesota 34 44.96
Northwestern 35 41.46
UCLA 36 40.54
South Carolina 37 40.47
Oklahoma 38 38.79
Virginia Tech 39 34.02
Michigan State 40 33.54
Virginia 41 30.77
Louisville 42 24.90
Indiana 43 24.59
South Florida 44 22.06
Clemson 45 21.60
Missouri 46 21.50
NC State 47 21.39
USC 48 21.06
North Carolina 49 20.01
Alabama 50 16.24
Syracuse 51 14.82
Arizona 52 11.53
Utah 53 9.16
Maryland 54 9.15
Colorado 55 8.20

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 28 Cal at Colorado Photo by Russell Lansford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images


California 56 6.75
Georgia State 57 6.74
Washington 58 -1.30
Vanderbilt 59 -1.62
Tulsa 60 -3.74
Oregon State 61 -6.15
W Michigan 62 -11.25
Wake Forest 63 -12.73
Tulane 64 -15.55
Navy 65 -16.38
Pittsburgh 66 -18.58
Boston College 67 -18.73
Wash State 68 -23.07
Oregon 69 -24.82
Kentucky 70 -25.65
Arkansas State 71 -35.45
East Carolina 72 -37.14
Ga Southern 73 -37.75
La–Monroe 74 -38.53
SMU 75 -39.50
Colorado State 76 -40.13
Rice 77 -41.63
Cincinnati 78 -41.98
Memphis 79 -42.76
UNLV 80 -43.11
BYU 81 -47.11
Kent State 82 -49.15
N Illinois 83 -50.41
New Mexico St 84 -51.47
Louisiana 85 -51.52
Akron 86 -57.75
Boise State 87 -59.47
Arizona State 88 -60.7
North Texas 89 -63.58
Ball State 90 -64.55
Ohio 91 -64.85
Fresno State 92 -66.35
UAB 93 -70.44
C. Michigan 94 -70.52
Texas State 95 -70.55
UMass 96 -72.15

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 16 South Alabama at Troy Photo by Bobby McDuffie/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

South Alabama 97 -72.15
Troy 98 -73.90
Temple 99 -74.50
Bowling Green 100 -78.21
UConn 101 -82.01
Appalachian St 102 -82.55
UCF 103 -89.29
Louisiana Tech 104 -92.2
E. Michigan 105 -93.75
Miami (OH) 106 -94.36
Utah State 107 -94.82
New Mexico 108 -96.46
Marshall 109 -97.01
Houston 110 -105.94
Wyoming 111 -106.68
Toledo 112 -111.56
Old Dominion 113 -116.26
Southern Miss 114 -118.51
San Diego State 115 -120.25
Middle Tenn 116 -122.67
W. Kentucky 117 -123.03
Army 118 -125.45
Buffalo 119 -127.24
Florida Atlantic 120 -129.88
Coastal Carolina 121 -131.47
Nevada 122 -131.54
Liberty 123 -131.85
Air Force 124 -133.44
San Jose State 125 -135.68
UTSA 126 -139.08
FIU 127 -144.69
Charlotte 128 -145.49
Hawaii 129 -154.83
UTEP 130 -171.68