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Giving Away Money — Alabama is Vegas’s runaway favorite to win it all. Again

Offseason attrition makes it hard to bet against the Tide too...

NCAA Football: CFP National Championship-Ohio State vs Alabama Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

Before the season started, I had begun cranking out some numbers based on productivity, returning starters, and the like. The team that repeatedly kept popping up as CFP title game participant, if not outright winner, was Oklahoma. And I still like the Sooners to reach the finals. It’s been a quiet offseason (football-wise) for the Dirt Burglars. The offense will be lethal. And you have to love what Alex Grinch did with the defense down the stretch. If 2020 OU had their second half solidity, I daresay Alabama — Oklahoma would have been last year’s finals.

The other team that often came up was the Georgia Bulldogs...with an asterisk. The offense was slated to be good, but. The defense was slated to be good, but. The schedule was mostly forgiving, but. In other words, a lot of things had to break right for the ‘Dawgs, and that simply has not been the case. There are still huge question marks in the passing game, the defense lost a lot (and I think we all know you can’t run the table based on a 10-year-old model any longer), and now there are injuries and quitter hole guys — including one that I had factored in as playing a huge part of a Georgia offense that loves using the middle of the field, Arik GIlbert, who is facing unspecified “health issues” that require “support and prayers — which I think we know almost certainly means drugs. So, scratch the Bulldogs off your dance card. Besides, I think Kirby has too much choke in him to ever run the table. His developmental track record has been piss-poor, and after Mark’s guys left, this simply has not been the same team. No, I think Mr. Smart lost his best chances on the Mercedes Dome field in an 11-month span in 2018.

Ohio State will be in the mix again. I think the offense will be better by subtraction, as it will rely much more on a passing game with the nation’s best returning receiving corps. The defense has issues though, and they’re the same ones from last season: slow linebacking corps and a thin group of DBs. In a catch-up game, I’m not sure that they can get a stop.

Clemson has faced even more injuries than Georgia, has almost as many losses on offense as Alabama, has lost its best cover man to transfer, and is still coached by a clown. Though the ACC won’t likely test the Tigers, this isn’t a championship squad. A few teams can get a sneaky W over the Tigers this year. Especially keep an eye on Louisville and UNC (if Mack Brown can ever get over the hump). Still, with preseason hype and that wretched conference, you do like their odds to at least eke into the playoffs. And Vegas thinks they’re the nation’s favorite to make the playoffs, actually.

In a year where the usual suspects are rebuilding, banged up, or face a lot of questions, that leaves Alabama. With one week left in the season, in an SEC West trying to rebound, and with a soft schedule, I think you’d have to be a fool to bet against ‘Bama at least making the CFPCG.

So, that’s the best bet: Oklahoma and Alabama to win their conferences, both make the playoffs, both make the Championship game. And, hey, why not. One team needs a stop — I’m going to trust this year’s salty defense. So, give the crown to ‘Bama too.

Without further ado, here are this year’s projected division, conference, and title odds from SportsBetting.AG.

I’ve italicized my picks.

Odds to make College Football Playoff

Clemson -700

Alabama -400

Ohio State -250

Oklahoma -225

Georgia +150

Iowa State +450

Texas A&M +500

Oregon +650

Notre Dame +700

Wisconsin +800

Texas +900

USC +900

Washington +900

LSU +1000

North Carolina +1000

Cincinnati +1100

Florida +1100

Penn State +1200

UCLA +2000

Utah +2000

Current divisions, conferences and championship odds can be found leading up to the season here:

NCAA Football: College Football Playoff National Championship-Clemson vs Louisiana State
The most overrated, average nothing burger since Jimmy Clausen. Enjoy Jacksonville!
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports


ACC Atlantic

Clemson -2000

Boston College +1600

Louisville +1600

NC State +2000

Florida State +2500

Wake Forest +2500

Syracuse +10000

ACC Coastal

Miami Florida +125

North Carolina +125

Virginia Tech +800

Pittsburgh +900

Virginia +1600

Georgia Tech +3300

Duke +10000

Big Ten East

Ohio State -450

Penn State +600

Michigan +800

Indiana +1000

Michigan State +4000

Maryland +5000

Big Ten West

Wisconsin -125

Iowa +175

Minnesota +1000

Nebraska +1000

Northwestern +1600

Purdue +3300

Illinois +5000

Pac-12 North

Oregon -130

Washington +135

Stanford +1600

California +1800

Oregon State +1800

Washington State +1800

Pac-12 South

USC +200

Arizona State +210

Utah +225

UCLA +550

Colorado +1200

Arizona +6600

SEC East

Georgia -500

Florida +500

Missouri +900

Kentucky +2000

Tennessee +3300

South Carolina +6600

Vanderbilt +20000

SEC West

Alabama -400

Texas A&M +500

LSU +900

Auburn +1600

Ole Miss +2000

Arkansas +5000

Mississippi State +5000



Clemson -600

North Carolina +750

Miami Florida +900

Boston College +3300

Florida State +3300

Louisville +3300

Virginia Tech +3300

Pittsburgh +4000

NC State +5000

Wake Forest +5000

Georgia Tech +8000

Virginia +8000

Syracuse +15000

Duke +20000


Cincinnati -260

UCF +300

Memphis +1000

Houston +1200

Tulsa +1400

SMU +2200

Tulane +5000

East CArolina +6600

Navy +15000

South Florida +15000

Temple +25000

Big 12

Oklahoma -200

Iowa State +250

Texas +750

Oklahoma State +1400

TCU +1400

West Virginia +2500

Kansas State +3300

Baylor +5000

Texas Tech +6600

Kansas +25000

Big Ten

Ohio State -220

Wisconsin +500

Iowa +900 (Want a Big 10 dark horse? I give you the Iowa Hawkeyes).

Penn State +900

Michigan +1800

Indiana +2000

Nebraska +2800

Minnesota +3300

Northwestern +5000

Rutgers +5000

Maryland +10000

Michigan State +10000

Purdue +10000

Illinois +20000


Marshall +300

UAB +300

Texas San Antonio +325

Western Kentucky +500

Florida Atlantic +900

Rice +1400

Louisiana Tech +2500

Middle Tennessee +2500

Southern Mississippi +2500

Charlotte +3300

North Texas +3300

Old Dominion +3300

Florida International +5000

UTEP +10000

NCAA Football: Texas El Paso at North Texas Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports


Toledo +200 (The Toledo — Ball State game will decide the division. I’m going with BSU overall though, because they’re home)

Ball State +450

Kent State +450

Buffalo +500

Ohio +600

Western Michigan +750 (Keep an eye on this team — filthy loaded, they will at least play in the MACCG).

Central Michigan +1200

Miami Ohio +1800

Eastern Michigan +3300

Akron +15000

Bowling Green +15000

Northern Illinois +15000

Mountain West

Boise State +100

Nevada +300 (I love everything about the steady rebuild here. Defense will be nasty; passing game is highly underrated. The schedule is tough though — too tough: At Boise, at SDSU, at Fresno.)

San Jose State +750

Wyoming +750

Fresno State +900

San Diego State +1200

Hawaii +1800

Air Force +2200

Colorado State +6600

Utah State +8000

New Mexico +15000

UNLV +20000


Oregon +250

Arizona State +400 (stout running game, defense built to harass, and Oregon are chokers. Herminator gets it done. Not the smartest move, no. But who cares? It’s just the PAC 12)

USC +400

Utah +400

Washington +400

UCLA +1000

Stanford +3300

Oregon State +4000

California +5000

Colorado +5000

Washington State +5000

Arizona +10000


Alabama -165

Georgia +200

Texas A&M +1100

Florida +1400

LSU +1600

Auburn +2800

Ole Miss +4000

Kentucky +5000

Missouri +5000

Tennessee +8000

Arkansas +10000

Mississippi State +10000

South Carolina +15000

Vanderbilt +50000

Sun Belt

Louisiana Lafayette -110

Coastal Carolina +160 (Coastal returns 19; ULL returns 20. But the H2H is in Conway, SC. Winner gets App State in the SBCCG).

Appalachian State +300

Georgia State +2500

Troy +2500

Arkansas State +4000

Georgia Southern +5000

Texas State +10000

Louisiana Monroe +15000

South Alabama +15000

2021-22 CFP Championship

Alabama +260

Clemson +500

Georgia +650

Oklahoma +650 (Want a good runner-up bet? Take the Sooners).

Ohio State +700

Iowa State +2800

Texas A&M +2800

Florida +3300

LSU +3300

Texas +4000

Miami (FL) +5000

North Carolina +5000

Oregon +5000

USC +5000

Wisconsin +5000

Auburn +6600

Notre Dame +6600

Penn State +8000

Utah +8000

Washington +8000

Arizona State +10000

Cincinnati +10000

Florida State +10000

Indiana +10000

Iowa +10000

Kentucky +10000

Michigan +10000

Oklahoma State +10000

Ole Miss +10000

Pittsburgh +10000

Tennessee +10000

UCLA +10000

Arkansas +20000

Kansas State +20000

Northwestern +20000

TCU +20000

West Virginia +20000

Boston College +25000

California +25000

Colorado +25000

Georgia Tech +25000

Louisville +25000

Michigan State +25000

Minnesota +25000

Mississippi State +25000

Missouri +25000

Nebraska +25000

Purdue +25000

South Carolina +25000

Stanford Cardinal +25000

Texas Tech +25000

Virginia Tech +25000

Washington State +25000

Arizona +30000

NC State +30000

Virginia +30000

Appalachian State +50000

Baylor +50000

Boise State +50000

Coastal Carolina +50000

Duke +50000

Illinois +50000

Maryland +50000

Navy +50000

Oregon State +50000

Rutgers +50000

Syracuse +50000

UCF +50000

Wake Forest +50000

Memphis +75000

Army +100000

BYU +100000

Houston +100000

Kansas +100000

SMU +100000

Tulsa +100000

Vanderbilt +100000

Shameless Plug Department. Want more picks and want to know why to make them? Then, degenerates, I direct you to Almost Giving Away Money, where we deep dive into data each week to and find you reasons to bet (or not bet) on given propositions and make even more money. We have a freebie up for you now, in fact.

Need another reason? Cheerleaders. Lots and lots of cheerleaders.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 08 Savannah State at Miami Photo by Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images