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Extra graphs Semi-final vs Cincinnati 2021

As always this is an addendum to balloons' Graphing the Tide vs. Cincinnati (CFP 2021 Semifinal): They ran, and ran

Putting myself back into a BK (Before Kiffin) mindset that was that just how I'd expect us to beat our opponent. Or maybe it's how I think I would have thought we would have beaten our opponent. In any case it was pretty satisfying, All Hail RTDB. Eyeballing our Offensive Drives by Drive graphs, I'd say we had 6 sustained drives. Five of which resulted in points and one missed field goal. Is there a definition of a sustained drive? I'm eyeballing it at 8 plays in a drive. Cincinnati had 4 sustained drives with this definition and only 2 resulted in points.

After reading ballons article I'm adding the the following:

Quarter Bama Drive #s UC Drive #s
1 1, 2 1
2 3, 4, 5 2, 3, 4, 5
3 6, 7, 8-> 6, 7, 8
4 ->8, 9, 10 9, 10

Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-02-drive-fac-down

Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-02-drive-fac-down

I'm still drawn to thinking about SR on a per drive basis. Do any of you think that it would be interesting to take the Yards to Success vs Yards Gained by Down and split it out by Drive? I'm probably going to anyway, but I guess I wonder if anyone else thinks the by Drive analysis is interesting or if y'all prefer to think about it for the whole game.

Looking at 2nd down in the Yards to Success vs Yards Gained by Down graph for both Alabama and Cincinnati, 14/15 of our successful plays resulted in a 1st/TD and for Cincinnati it was 8/9. So again these were not just successful, but it moved the chains. I don't know if ratios this large is normal for all teams, but (eyeballing it) they look somewhat normal for us.

Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-05-all4-downs-fac-noscale

Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-05-all4-downs-fac-noscale

Alabama:


Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-01-success-drive-bar

Alabama, 2021, wk01, Success rate by drive table vs Cincinnati

Drive Total Successful Unsuccessful Success rate Scoring drive
1 11 10 1 0.9090909 TRUE
2 12 4 8 0.3333333 FALSE
3 3 0 3 0.0000000 FALSE
4 11 7 4 0.6363636 FALSE
5 8 5 3 0.6250000 TRUE
6 5 1 4 0.2000000 FALSE
7 3 1 2 0.3333333 FALSE
8 9 5 4 0.5555556 TRUE
9 8 5 3 0.6250000 FALSE
10 5 3 2 0.6000000 FALSE



Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-02-drive-fac-down

Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-03-drive

Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-04-all4-downs-fac

Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-05-all4-downs-fac-noscale

Alabama, 2021, wk01, Success by down table vs Cincinnati

Down Total Successful Unsuccessful TD/1st
1 34 20 14 7
2 27 15 12 14
3 13 5 8 5
4 1 1 0 1



Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-06-yards-success-gained

Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-07-drive-extra-yards-gained

Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-08-drive-yards-to-success

Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-09-fac-yards-to-success

Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-e5-drive-success-play

Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-e6-success-drive-bar-down

Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-e7-success-drive-bar-down2

Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-e8-success-drive-down-bar-yards-to-goal-fac

Cincinnati:


Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-01-success-drive-bar

Cincinnati, 2021, wk01, Success rate by drive table vs Alabama

Drive Total Successful Unsuccessful Success rate Scoring drive
1 12 7 5 0.5833333 FALSE
2 3 1 2 0.3333333 FALSE
3 3 0 3 0.0000000 FALSE
4 3 0 3 0.0000000 FALSE
5 6 1 5 0.1666667 FALSE
6 10 8 2 0.8000000 FALSE
7 3 0 3 0.0000000 FALSE
8 3 0 3 0.0000000 FALSE
9 8 5 3 0.6250000 FALSE
10 7 3 4 0.4285714 FALSE



Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-02-drive-fac-down

Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-03-drive

Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-04-all4-downs-fac

Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-05-all4-downs-fac-noscale

Cincinnati, 2021, wk01, Success by down table vs Alabama

Down Total Successful Unsuccessful TD/1st
1 23 14 9 3
2 20 9 11 8
3 12 2 10 2
4 3 0 3 0



Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-06-yards-success-gained

Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-07-drive-extra-yards-gained

Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-08-drive-yards-to-success

Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-09-fac-yards-to-success

Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-e5-drive-success-play

Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-e6-success-drive-bar-down

Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-e7-success-drive-bar-down2

Cincinnati-2021-wk01-Alabama-e8-success-drive-down-bar-yards-to-goal-fac

Penalties

I was actually able to extract penalty data from my data source... well it's almost always correct at least for most of the seasons I've played with and the few errors can be hand corrected. I've got to rewrite my code so that I can keep track of NCAA and SEC (and I guess all conference) averages and team averages. Below is the game penalty data: bar chart and table. Extracting the penalty yardage might be possible, but I'll have to think about it more. If interested I was able to do some analysis of SEC penalties several weeks ago: Extra graphs: Penalty graphs, now with averages

Alabama-2021-wk01-Cincinnati-e9-penalty-bar

Penalties for Alabama (6), Cincinnati (6): 2021, wk01

Team Type
Alabama False Start
Alabama False Start
Alabama Holding
Alabama Illegal Formation
Alabama Illegal Forward Pass
Alabama Unsportsmanlike Conduct
Cincinnati Defensive Offside
Cincinnati Defensive Offside
Cincinnati Delay Of Game
Cincinnati False Start
Cincinnati Illegal Shift
Cincinnati Unsportsmanlike Conduct

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