As always this is an addendum to balloons' Graphing the Tide vs. Cincinnati (CFP 2021 Semifinal): They ran, and ran
Putting myself back into a BK (Before Kiffin) mindset that was that just how I'd expect us to beat our opponent. Or maybe it's how I think I would have thought we would have beaten our opponent. In any case it was pretty satisfying, All Hail RTDB. Eyeballing our Offensive Drives by Drive graphs, I'd say we had 6 sustained drives. Five of which resulted in points and one missed field goal. Is there a definition of a sustained drive? I'm eyeballing it at 8 plays in a drive. Cincinnati had 4 sustained drives with this definition and only 2 resulted in points.
After reading ballons article I'm adding the the following:
| Quarter | Bama Drive #s | UC Drive #s |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1, 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 3, 4, 5 | 2, 3, 4, 5 |
| 3 | 6, 7, 8-> | 6, 7, 8 |
| 4 | ->8, 9, 10 | 9, 10 |
I'm still drawn to thinking about SR on a per drive basis. Do any of you think that it would be interesting to take the Yards to Success vs Yards Gained by Down and split it out by Drive? I'm probably going to anyway, but I guess I wonder if anyone else thinks the by Drive analysis is interesting or if y'all prefer to think about it for the whole game.
Looking at 2nd down in the Yards to Success vs Yards Gained by Down graph for both Alabama and Cincinnati, 14/15 of our successful plays resulted in a 1st/TD and for Cincinnati it was 8/9. So again these were not just successful, but it moved the chains. I don't know if ratios this large is normal for all teams, but (eyeballing it) they look somewhat normal for us.
Alabama:
Alabama, 2021, wk01, Success rate by drive table vs Cincinnati
| Drive | Total | Successful | Unsuccessful | Success rate | Scoring drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0.9090909 | TRUE |
| 2 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0.3333333 | FALSE |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.0000000 | FALSE |
| 4 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0.6363636 | FALSE |
| 5 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0.6250000 | TRUE |
| 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.2000000 | FALSE |
| 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.3333333 | FALSE |
| 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0.5555556 | TRUE |
| 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0.6250000 | FALSE |
| 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.6000000 | FALSE |
Alabama, 2021, wk01, Success by down table vs Cincinnati
| Down | Total | Successful | Unsuccessful | TD/1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 7 |
| 2 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 14 |
| 3 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Cincinnati:
Cincinnati, 2021, wk01, Success rate by drive table vs Alabama
| Drive | Total | Successful | Unsuccessful | Success rate | Scoring drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0.5833333 | FALSE |
| 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.3333333 | FALSE |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.0000000 | FALSE |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.0000000 | FALSE |
| 5 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0.1666667 | FALSE |
| 6 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0.8000000 | FALSE |
| 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.0000000 | FALSE |
| 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.0000000 | FALSE |
| 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0.6250000 | FALSE |
| 10 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0.4285714 | FALSE |
Cincinnati, 2021, wk01, Success by down table vs Alabama
| Down | Total | Successful | Unsuccessful | TD/1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 3 |
| 2 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| 3 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Penalties
I was actually able to extract penalty data from my data source... well it's almost always correct at least for most of the seasons I've played with and the few errors can be hand corrected. I've got to rewrite my code so that I can keep track of NCAA and SEC (and I guess all conference) averages and team averages. Below is the game penalty data: bar chart and table. Extracting the penalty yardage might be possible, but I'll have to think about it more. If interested I was able to do some analysis of SEC penalties several weeks ago: Extra graphs: Penalty graphs, now with averages
Penalties for Alabama (6), Cincinnati (6): 2021, wk01
| Team | Type |
|---|---|
| Alabama | False Start |
| Alabama | False Start |
| Alabama | Holding |
| Alabama | Illegal Formation |
| Alabama | Illegal Forward Pass |
| Alabama | Unsportsmanlike Conduct |
| Cincinnati | Defensive Offside |
| Cincinnati | Defensive Offside |
| Cincinnati | Delay Of Game |
| Cincinnati | False Start |
| Cincinnati | Illegal Shift |
| Cincinnati | Unsportsmanlike Conduct |
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