Alabama vs Georgia: Psychological Edge

Through the history of college football, there have been a good share of teams meeting in the regular season and then rematching in a conference championship or in lesser bowl games. In the 1996-97 and 2011-12 seasons, college football experienced the rare instance of the National Championship Game also being a rematch from earlier in the season. Monday night’s Championship Game between Alabama and Georgia will be the third involving a rematch, but first in which the other game was a conference championship.

From a psychological standpoint, it is new territory with a lot of moving parts.

1. The results of the last game were shockingly unexpected by many pundits.
2. That game is fresh on the minds of the teams involved.
3. Despite Alabama’s rout in the SECCG, Las Vegas again favors Georgia.
4. The stakes are higher than they have ever been before. It’s not just about this year’s trophy. The result of this game could have ramifications across the college football landscape for years to come.

Who has the psychological edge? Georgia or Alabama?

“I feel like we’re the underdog in this game (Cincinnati). All year we’ve been disrespected. Pretty sure we’re probably still getting disrespected out there.” ~ Will Anderson Dec 27, 2021

INTANGIBLES

GAME LOCATION: The Championship Game is ridiculously being played in Indianapolis – a city with absolutely no college football tradition or even a FBS team. Neither Alabama nor Georgia have ever played a game in the Colts’ domed stadium. The odds that any players from either team outside of Indy native Emil Ekioyor have even been to the Hoosier State is pretty low. From the comments we have heard in recent weeks around the Tide, it seems highly unlikely that the team is participating in too many local events that might be taking place, instead focusing on the task at hand. Kirby being Kirby, he is going to mimic whatever Saban does.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE: Tie.

SPOTLIGHT: Who does better in the spotlight than Alabama? The Tide has been in seven out of eight playoffs and won it all last season. UGA is in only their second playoff ever. Their last one ended with Tua Tagovailoa connecting with DeVonta Smith on 2nd and 26 in overtime.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE: Alabama.

QUARTERBACK COOL: Heisman winning quarterback Bryce Young has been cool all season, even in the most perilous situations. Former walk-on Stetson Bennett continues to baffle his doubters. However, Alabama appears to have his number... and his head. In the senior’s two starts against the Crimson Tide over the past two seasons, Bama has flustered him to the brink of a meltdown, winning both games by the identical scores of 41-24. Bennett has been sacked more than once in a game only three times in is career. Two of those were against the Tide. He threw three picks versus Alabama in 2020 (his most ever in one game) and two in the SECCG last month.

PSYCHOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE: Alabama.

REVENGE: Throughout history, most rematches have been won by the teams who previously lost. Having your heart broken is a strong motivator the second time around. Conversely, it is not as easy to get up for a foe that your team already beat.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE: Georgia.

RAT POISON: As mentioned, Las Vegas favors Georgia. Guys like Joel Klatt, Clay Travis, Dennis Dodd, and Barrett Sallee have picked the Dawgs. A big radio guy in Indy says Alabama will get their “ass kicked”. Keep it coming! In all honesty, the picks from the press are pretty split. But the loudest mouths are taking UGA.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE: Alabama.

According to DraftKings sportsbook, Georgia is currently favored by 3 points with an Over/Under of 52. Personally, I am taking Bama to straight up win by 9 or under. The O/U is too close for me to make a pick.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.