Giving Away Money 2022: Week 7 picks against the spread to enhance your filthy lucre

Nice results last time around, 4-2.

Though, Kentucky failed to cover, they did have the decency to take the straight-up loss to a bad South Carolina team.
Does it help my bottom line? No.
Does it balm my soul and fulfill my desire for petty revenge? Absolutely.

Oh, and that toxic UNL-Rutgers (+3) game I told you to steer clear of, but that I had a suspicion Rutgers would ugly it up and have a decent shot to win? Final score: 14-13, Nebraska...and it was every bit as bad as advertised: 5 interception, 18 penalties, 8 of 41 on 3rd down, 4.2 yards per play. Rutgers had almost as many punt yards (293) as total offensive yards (302). BLECH

It’s been a weird year overall, TBH. Week 1, 3, 5 were very good. Week 6 was very good early, mixed in the evening, and wound up being decent overall. Week 2 and 4 were abominable. But it’s looking like Weeks 2 and 4 were actually the outliers they appeared to be at the time (Army isn’t turning the ball over seven times every week, for instance).

Alright, Week Seven is upon us, and you know the drill by now.

Half a dozen games to go through today: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.

Want some more of these? I crank the data every week, for every single game over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Our thanks to DraftKings sponsoring Roll ‘Bama Roll again. For more degenerate gambling, fantasy, and sportsbook posts, you can check all of those out at the SBNation DraftKings Supergroup hub. And for current odds, check those out here.

Not With A 10’ Pole And Stolen Money

We’re going to take all of the “injured star quarterback games” here and save you some money. This is called “lagniappe” for those of you who don’t speak coonass.

• Jalon Daniels, essentially the entire Kansas offense, will DEFINITELY miss the Jayhawks trip to Norman. So, that OU -9 makes a lot more sense now. And there’s simply no way to factor in an analysis with his production omitted. It would be funny as hell if Kansas still winds up winning...and they have a punchers chance.
• Bryce Young is “on a pitch count,” but I’m not sure if that’s Saban sandbagging or not. He was allegedly ready to go last week, but then didn’t even throw in warmups. And if Jalen Milroe actually has to start this week, I don’t like Alabama’s chances to win a shootout. He’s even worse than AR15...and as bad as Tennessee’s defense is, I’m not sure they’re that bad. A Milroe-led Alabama team likely doesn’t win, much less cover -3.5.
• Lastly, we still have no word on KJ Jefferson: like Jalon/KU, he’s basically the entire Arkansas offense. With that ghastly secondary on the road, and no counterweight in the offensive gameplan, Arkansas -1.5 looks like a sucker’s bet, right? Especially against a BYU team that is far more finesse and pass-oriented this season. Nah, skip the Piggies and Mormons.

One We Like:

Purdue -14 vs. Nebraska

The Boilers should be able to pour kerosene on the desiccated corpse of the Huskers and watch them become tasty Corn briquets at midfield. UNL’s secondary vs. Purdue’s passing game is laughably one-sided. In a night game, where the Boilermakers are +4.6 PPG over expected values when the sun goes down? Purdue is hot ATM, with wins at Maryland and Minnesota in the last two weeks and three of its last four. They’re actually just 7 points away from being undefeated, and analytically are in the Top 20 in offense, defense, and overall. Probably Brohm’s best group so far and my favorite to win the West.
Purdue -22.72. They’ll smoke this awful Nubber squad.

One We Love:

Western Kentucky -8 at Middle Tennessee

One of the 10 worst secondaries in America vs. the nation’s No. 1 passing team. What could go wrong? This game could be a lot worse, but MTSU wildly plays above their heads at home, and WKU’s defense is very middle of the road. The Raiders will get some shots in. But not enough, not nearly enough to offset WKU’s vast offensive advantage. Something like 45-31ish.
WKU -13.79

Underdog With Bite

Minnesota -6.5 at Illinois

I had to actually look at the screen again to make sure this was right. Yep, the right team is favored, but it seems by too many on the road in the B1G. We’ll see some average offenses, well-above average defenses, well-coached teams, two teams that are both very good ATS, and a good old fashioned B1G slobberknocker. It will probably be a FG game either way.
I’ll ride the hot hand here. Illinois +2.96.

Bert has to be on the shortlist for Nat’l CotY with Leipold, right?

Ginormous Spread Worth Your While

UTSA -33 at FIU

It was very hard actually to find many ginormous spreads this week. So this is the best of a bad lot. Still, you should press F to pay respects in the chat. UTSA’s passing game is going to light these terrible Panthers up. FIU has the worst secondary in America, and UTSA has the No. 6 passing attack.
FIU will get a few scores, but I don’t see any way they stop the bleeding in their secondary. Roadrunners -36.93.

Mortal Lock

UNM -6.5 at NMSU

Sometimes you don’t need to look for some hidden edge; the advantages are manifest.

And here, the Lobos are just the far better team. Better offense, better defense, better ball security. More balanced offense. Better talent. This game isn’t the UNM/NMSU games of the last few years: New Mexico is slowly turning it around, while it’s going to take NMSU a few years to get to that competitive level.

Take the visitor, -13.95 New Mexico, in a low-scoring physical game controlled by the Lobos, who hang on to the ball and handle the LOS better. Just old fashioned fundamental football.