Giving Away Money 2022: Week 6 picks against the spread to enhance your filthy lucre

Alright, Week Six and you know the drill by now.

Half a dozen games to go through today: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.

Want some more of these? I crank the data every week, for every single game over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

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Not With A 10’ Pole And Stolen Money

Nebraska -3 at Rutgers

The first game out of the gate is probably also one of the most toxic lines on the board. A rebuilding team with an interim coach, on the road, that can’t play defense vs. a bad team at home, that plays way above their head on defense, has no offense, but will steal a game if you let them.

More than a little part of me thinks the Scarlet Knights do just that too. But I’m not betting on it.

One We Like:

SDSU -21 vs. Hawaii

The nation’s second-worst rush defense against the nation’s No. 8 rushing team. On the road. With a defense that gives up 280 YPG on the ground and 7 YPC.

It won’t be the 63-10 mollywhomping Vandy put on them, but it won’t be pretty either. I’m not sure Hawaii even scores in this game. SDSU -27.27. (Hawaii is so bad that it even lost the TO battle against NM State...and lost outright by 21 points. Far worse in the paradise of San Diego, I’d wager...and I will.)

I’ll take 38-10 SDSU, but for the love of God, don’t watch this trash.

One We Love:

BYU +4 at Notre Dame

This has to be an artifact of ranking, the Domers’ early struggles, and for a change the media not spurging every time they see Touchdown Jesus.

To beat ND, you have to stop the run, power over them at the LOS, and win the TO battle: fundamental football. The Cougars will get a gift or two, for sure: ND is sloppy. But they also take a ton of penalties — almost 10 per game on the road. BYU can’t run the ball particularly well. And they can’t stop the run particularly well either. Oregon’s speed and physicality caught this team flat-footed, and ND has just as many athletes, but a far more physical identity under the new junta.

Take the Catholics in this interfaith tussle. Touchdown, touchdown-plus in a mauling, old school Midwestern footbaw game that pairs well with mayonnaise, season affective disorder, and air pollution. Northern Indiana: Catch it!

Notre Dame -10.63

Underdog With Bite

Miami -3.5 vs UNC

This is the sucker bet of the week. Miami’s defense can’t stop the pass, and its offense can’t keep up with teams who can put anything on the scoreboard. I’m not sure I trust the number that says UNC by double-digits (UNC -11.40), but that’s a 15-point swing we’re talking here. Yes, yes, I know: UNC’s defense can make even Miami’s offense look competent...at times. And, yes, yes, I know: Mack Brown is terrible on the road — good thing sticking around Miami is not a home game at all for the ‘Canes. But this is most misaligned number on the board this week. By far.

Da’ U is actually worse (far, far worse) analytically than their record. If UNC loses this one, that’s just piss-poor coaching. The Heels are the more talented team, the better team, and they’re playing for more.

Take UNC to cover and win S/U

Ginormous Spread Worth Your While

Ohio State -27 at Michigan State

Remember last week when I said skip that Buckeyes line and save it for this week? Here’s why: This game is a full touchdown undervalued. Bucks should be closer to a 33-point favorite.

Sparty allows opponents to complete 68% of their passes, 8 yards an attempt, 59% third down passing, have allowed the second-most explosive pass plays of any team all season, 9th worst QBR allowed, 12th-worst yards allowed, 103rd in yards per pass, 104th in 3rd downs allowed (45%), and the offense just isn’t getting it done vs. Power 5 teams.

Sparty has covered one game, at home, vs. Western Michigan. They’re 0-fer the spread in all other contests. I expect another solid ass-kicking here, despite it being OSU’s first roadie of the year. The running game is too much, the passing game is too much. And while not great out of the gate, the defense adjusts very well.

48-17ish. Take the Buckeyes. Big.

Mortal Lock

Kentucky -6.5 vs South Carolina

Honestly, this should be another touchdown.

UK is a better team by every possible definition of the word “better”, they’re playing at home, and Spencer Rattler is still the Spencer Rattler that got benched for a reason last year. Stoops is also 8-4 ATS as a home favorite the last four seasons.

Road Shane Beamer? O-fer the spread.

Pewter says UK -13.68 and that sounds about right. 27-14 Wildcats.