FanPost

Extra graphs week 11 vs Ole Miss

I think looking at the Yards to success graph when supplemented with the Extra yards and Offensive drives graphs give a pretty good indication of how well a drive is going. If a drive is hanging around 5 yards or lower on the Yards to success graph then the team seems to be doing well on that drive. When the the drive starts to hang out above 5 yards and especially if it starts to increase monotonically that is a bad sign for that drive. Looking at our Yards to success graph drives 1, 2, 3 they stay at 5 yards or higher for every play (ignore the last point on drive 3 that's after fourth down so I need to think about how to handle this situation) and result in punts or a turnover on downs. Drive 4 and 7 both remain at or below 5 yards and result in touchdowns. Obviously this is not exact as drive 10 stays at or below 5 yards and we had to kick a field goal and drive 9 bounces all over the place and we were still able to score a touchdown. I think I might need to make a Yards to success/SR by Drive graph. I want to rewatch the games with these graphs at hand and see if the play on the field correspond to what I think I'm seeing.

Alabama-2022-regular-wk11-Ole-Miss-08-drive-yards-to-success

Alabama-2022-regular-wk11-Ole-Miss-01-success-drive-bar

Alabama-2022-regular-wk11-Ole-Miss-07-drive-extra-yards-gained

Alabama-2022-regular-wk11-Ole-Miss-03-drive

Ole Miss's graphs seem to correlate to what I recall from the game. Their offense seemed to be in control through most of the 1st half and then we were able to disrupt their game plan for most of the second half.

Ole-Miss-2022-regular-wk11-Alabama-08-drive-yards-to-success

Ole-Miss-2022-regular-wk11-Alabama-01-success-drive-bar

Ole-Miss-2022-regular-wk11-Alabama-07-drive-extra-yards-gained

Ole-Miss-2022-regular-wk11-Alabama-03-drive

As to penalties, unfortunately my code missed most of ours (but seems to have picked up on Ole Miss's penalties just fine). I've been keeping a list of the penalties committed during the game so I was able to fill out the table of which penalties were called. Also, the bye week is causing an problem with the line graph (last Bama/Ole Miss graph) but just mentally slide LSU over and it will be lined up correctly. I need to add a table that records a Home/Away column along with the umber of penalties and annotate it in the line chart. I'll also note that the tables below are generated from a different dataset and is correct.

The good news is that we were below our average with 5 penalties enforced and 1 penalty declined. Of the 6 flags thrown on us, 4 are what I would consider effort penalties and the other 2 (Illegal Shift and Delay Of Game) mental errors.

Penalty team Penalty type Penalty status
Alabama Illegal Shift declined
Alabama Pass Interference enforced
Alabama Delay Of Game enforced
Alabama Face Mask enforced
Alabama Holding enforced
Alabama Illegal Touching enforced
Ole Miss False Start enforced
Ole Miss False Start enforced
Ole Miss Personal Foul enforced
Ole Miss Holding enforced
Ole Miss Offensive Holding enforced
Ole Miss Offsides enforced

We are still tied for most penalized with Tennessee with 83 penalties total, 8.30 per game, and a z-score of 1.70 compared with other SEC schools. We are at least no longer the worst in the country, but our z-score with respect to the rest of the FBS is 2.32. That's still pretty bad. Navy is still the least penalized team with 34 total, 3.40 per game, and -3.06 as their z-score. Georgia is still the least penalized SEC team and compared to the FBS: 44 total, 4.40 per game, and a -1.96 z-score.

school sum mean z
Alabama 83 8.30 1.70
Tennessee 83 8.30 1.70
Missouri 76 7.60 0.96
Auburn 75 7.50 0.85
Mississippi State 68 6.80 0.11
South Carolina 68 6.80 0.11
Texas A&M 68 6.80 0.11
Arkansas 67 6.70 0.01
LSU 67 6.70 0.01
Ole Miss 65 6.50 -0.20
Florida 61 6.10 -0.63
Kentucky 59 5.90 -0.84
Vanderbilt 53 5.30 -1.47
Georgia 44 4.40 -2.43

That's all I have for this week. Roll Tide!

Alabama logo

Drive number Total Successful Unsuccessful Success rate Scoring drive
1 6 1 5 0.166667 false
2 3 0 3 0.0 false
3 4 0 4 0.0 false
4 6 4 2 0.666667 true
5 1 0 1 0.0 false
6 3 0 3 0.0 false
7 6 3 3 0.5 true
8 6 2 4 0.333333 false
9 14 10 4 0.714286 true
10 7 4 3 0.571429 false
11 2 0 2 0.0 false
12 8 4 4 0.5 false
13 2 0 2 0.0 false


Alabama-2022-regular-wk11-Ole-Miss-02-drive-fac-down

Down Successful Unsuccessful Total TD/1st
1 11 18 29 3
2 11 13 24 10
3 6 8 14 6
4 missing 1 missing 0


Alabama-2022-regular-wk11-Ole-Miss-04-all4-downs-fac

Alabama-2022-regular-wk11-Ole-Miss-05-all4-downs-fac-noscale

Alabama-2022-regular-wk11-Ole-Miss-06-yards-success-gained

Alabama-2022-regular-wk11-Ole-Miss-09-fac-yards-to-success

Alabama-2022-regular-wk11-Ole-Miss-e01-drive-success-play

Alabama-2022-regular-wk11-Ole-Miss-e02-drive-extra-yards-gained-fac

Alabama-2022-regular-wk11-Ole-Miss-p01-penalties-bar

Alabama-2022-regular-wk11-Ole-Miss-p02-penalties-bar-all

Alabama-2022-regular-wk11-p03-penalties-line-season

Alabama logo

Drive number Total Successful Unsuccessful Success rate Scoring drive
1 10 7 3 0.7 false
2 6 2 4 0.333333 false
3 11 6 5 0.545455 true
4 8 2 6 0.25 false
5 3 0 3 0.0 false
6 7 5 2 0.714286 true
7 1 0 1 0.0 false
8 1 1 0 1.0 false
9 11 8 3 0.727273 true
10 3 0 3 0.0 false
11 3 0 3 0.0 false
12 8 3 5 0.375 false
13 8 3 5 0.375 false


Ole-Miss-2022-regular-wk11-Alabama-02-drive-fac-down

Down Successful Unsuccessful Total TD/1st
1 17 17 34 5
2 12 15 27 10
3 8 8 16 8
4 missing 3 missing 0


Ole-Miss-2022-regular-wk11-Alabama-04-all4-downs-fac

Ole-Miss-2022-regular-wk11-Alabama-05-all4-downs-fac-noscale

Ole-Miss-2022-regular-wk11-Alabama-06-yards-success-gained

Ole-Miss-2022-regular-wk11-Alabama-09-fac-yards-to-success

Ole-Miss-2022-regular-wk11-Alabama-e01-drive-success-play

Ole-Miss-2022-regular-wk11-Alabama-e02-drive-extra-yards-gained-fac

Ole-Miss-2022-regular-wk11-Alabama-p01-penalties-bar

Ole-Miss-2022-regular-wk11-Alabama-p02-penalties-bar-all

Penalty_team Penalty_type Penalty_status
Alabama Illegal Shift declined
Alabama Pass Interference enforced
Alabama Delay Of Game enforced
Alabama Face Mask enforced
Alabama Holding enforced
Alabama Illegal Touching enforced
Ole Miss False Start enforced
Ole Miss False Start enforced
Ole Miss Personal Foul enforced
Ole Miss Holding enforced
Ole Miss Offensive Holding enforced
Ole Miss Offsides enforced


Ole-Miss-2022-regular-wk11-p03-penalties-line-season

All SEC teams

2022-regular-wk11-p04-penalties-SECv-FBS-all

2022-regular-wk11-p05-penalties-SECv-SEC-all

2022-regular-wk11-p06-penalties-SECv-FBS-enforced

2022-regular-wk11-p07-penalties-SECv-SEC-enforced

week Alabama Arkansas Auburn Florida Georgia Kentucky LSU Mississippi State Missouri Ole Miss South Carolina Tennessee Texas A&M Vanderbilt
0 missing missing missing missing missing missing missing missing missing missing missing missing missing 7
1 6 7 3 7 7 4 3 5 10 3 5 6 6 5
2 15 10 9 3 4 2 6 7 8 9 5 7 7 3
3 6 6 7 6 3 10 7 3 9 6 5 11 5 5
4 6 3 4 10 2 2 5 3 7 6 10 6 9 6
5 10 6 8 5 5 4 10 13 7 3 5 missing 3 missing
6 6 10 10 1 4 5 9 4 6 9 4 12 8 5
7 17 7 5 5 3 11 5 13 missing 6 missing 6 missing 5
8 3 missing missing missing missing missing 8 10 2 10 6 13 8 5
9 missing 10 7 7 4 5 missing missing 6 7 5 6 9 missing
10 9 6 14 10 6 12 7 5 7 missing 12 9 5 5
11 5 2 8 7 6 4 7 5 14 6 11 7 8 7

school sum mean z
South Alabama 87 8.70 2.76
Utah State 87 8.70 2.76
Cincinnati 84 8.40 2.43
Rutgers 84 8.40 2.43
Syracuse 84 8.40 2.43
Alabama 83 8.30 2.32
Eastern Michigan 83 8.30 2.32
Houston 83 8.30 2.32
Tennessee 83 8.30 2.32
Bowling Green 82 8.20 2.21
UMass 80 8.00 1.99
Maryland 79 7.90 1.88
Pittsburgh 77 7.70 1.66
Missouri 76 7.60 1.55
San Diego State 76 7.60 1.55
Virginia Tech 76 7.60 1.55
Arizona State 75 7.50 1.44
Auburn 75 7.50 1.44
NC State 75 7.50 1.44
Colorado State 74 7.40 1.33
Central Michigan 66 7.33 1.20
Florida State 73 7.30 1.22
New Mexico State 58 7.25 1.04
Georgia State 72 7.20 1.11
Louisville 72 7.20 1.11
Illinois 71 7.10 1.00
Old Dominion 71 7.10 1.00
Southern Mississippi 71 7.10 1.00
Miami 70 7.00 0.89
Oregon 70 7.00 0.89
UAB 70 7.00 0.89
Virginia 70 7.00 0.89
Louisiana 69 6.90 0.78
Louisiana Tech 69 6.90 0.78
Middle Tennessee 69 6.90 0.78
North Carolina 69 6.90 0.78
Western Michigan 69 6.90 0.78
Marshall 62 6.89 0.73
Mississippi State 68 6.80 0.67
South Carolina 68 6.80 0.67
Texas A&M 68 6.80 0.67
Toledo 68 6.80 0.67
USC 68 6.80 0.67
Wisconsin 68 6.80 0.67
Charlotte 74 6.73 0.62
Arkansas 67 6.70 0.56
LSU 67 6.70 0.56
UCLA 67 6.70 0.56
UT San Antonio 67 6.70 0.56
Washington 67 6.70 0.56
Connecticut 72 6.55 0.41
Western Kentucky 72 6.55 0.41
Florida International 65 6.50 0.34
Ole Miss 65 6.50 0.34
Oregon State 65 6.50 0.34
Akron 64 6.40 0.23
Boston College 64 6.40 0.23
Kent State 64 6.40 0.23
New Mexico 64 6.40 0.23
Northern Illinois 64 6.40 0.23
UTEP 64 6.40 0.23
Liberty 63 6.30 0.13
Tulsa 62 6.20 0.02
West Virginia 62 6.20 0.02
Arkansas State 61 6.10 -0.09
Clemson 61 6.10 -0.09
Florida 61 6.10 -0.09
Florida Atlantic 61 6.10 -0.09
Georgia Tech 61 6.10 -0.09
Oklahoma 61 6.10 -0.09
Texas Tech 61 6.10 -0.09
Ball State 59 5.90 -0.31
Kentucky 59 5.90 -0.31
Michigan State 59 5.90 -0.31
Nevada 59 5.90 -0.31
Rice 59 5.90 -0.31
Hawai'i 64 5.82 -0.42
BYU 58 5.80 -0.42
Coastal Carolina 58 5.80 -0.42
Duke 58 5.80 -0.42
Miami (OH) 58 5.80 -0.42
Texas 58 5.80 -0.42
San Jos\xe9 State 52 5.78 -0.43
Nebraska 57 5.70 -0.53
UCF 57 5.70 -0.53
UNLV 57 5.70 -0.53
Appalachian State 51 5.67 -0.54
Kansas 56 5.60 -0.64
Penn State 56 5.60 -0.64
Purdue 56 5.60 -0.64
Kansas State 55 5.50 -0.75
Washington State 55 5.50 -0.75
Boise State 54 5.40 -0.86
Ohio 54 5.40 -0.86
Troy 54 5.40 -0.86
Buffalo 48 5.33 -0.89
James Madison 48 5.33 -0.89
Baylor 53 5.30 -0.97
Iowa State 53 5.30 -0.97
Texas State 53 5.30 -0.97
Vanderbilt 53 5.30 -0.97
Army 47 5.22 -1.00
California 52 5.20 -1.08
Colorado 51 5.10 -1.19
Georgia Southern 51 5.10 -1.19
North Texas 56 5.09 -1.26
Arizona 50 5.00 -1.30
Indiana 50 5.00 -1.30
Louisiana Monroe 50 5.00 -1.30
Notre Dame 50 5.00 -1.30
Temple 50 5.00 -1.30
Wake Forest 50 5.00 -1.30
Ohio State 49 4.90 -1.41
Utah 48 4.80 -1.52
Northwestern 47 4.70 -1.63
TCU 47 4.70 -1.63
South Florida 46 4.60 -1.74
Wyoming 45 4.50 -1.85
Georgia 44 4.40 -1.96
Iowa 44 4.40 -1.96
Fresno State 43 4.30 -2.07
Tulane 43 4.30 -2.07
Memphis 42 4.20 -2.18
SMU 42 4.20 -2.18
Stanford 42 4.20 -2.18
Air Force 41 4.10 -2.29
East Carolina 41 4.10 -2.29
Michigan 41 4.10 -2.29
Minnesota 41 4.10 -2.29
Oklahoma State 37 3.70 -2.73
Navy 34 3.40 -3.06

Data: @CFB_Data or collegefootballdata.com

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