Okay, I sort of teased you in the subheadline above: Are we going to bet against CU again? I mean, it’s worked 80% of the time this season. Washington is soaring. Buffs are on the road. They’ll get stomped, right?
Likely, but it’s a terrible play:
1. The numbers don’t work (UW -33.92, with a vast MOE and low CI),
2. This game is wedged between UW’s Top 10 upset road win over arch-nemesis Oregon and its other arch-nemesis, Wazzu in the Apple Cup
3. Have you actually seen UW’s defense with your own eyeballs? Mercy. It’s WAC-bad.
So, no. Don’t bet on the Huskies this week.
But I did warn you about LSU last week, and told you to ride the UConn Huskies. So, maybe there’s something to all this math, huh?!
On to Week 12, and as always, we shall endeavor to give you a handy half-dozen games: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock. PLUS, because it’s the season of giving, I’ll throw in some lagniappe — a marginal spread that looks to be pretty good nonetheless.
Our thanks to DraftKings for sponsoring Roll ‘Bama Roll again. For more degenerate gambling, fantasy, and sportsbook posts, you can check all of those out at the SBNation DraftKings Supergroup hub. And for current odds, check those out here.
Not With A 10’ Pole And Stolen Money
Auburn -6 vs. WKU
The Toppers are perfect OTR this year ATS. I suspect they get this one too, and a S/U win isn’t out of the question. But Auburn has half-talked themselves into hiring Cadillac, and I devoutly want it to happen. I’m just too close to this one to be fully objective. It doesn’t hurt that Auburn has the second worst TOM in the country, and WKU the second-best. I’m just in it for the Lulz.
GOD THING. ALL IN. FAMBLY. WKU +5.12
One more at house. pic.twitter.com/FuuKNNN8Sg— Auburn Football (@AuburnFootball) November 16, 2022
It’s an actual cult.
One We Like:
South Carolina +21.5 vs Tennessee
For the ‘Cocks, who play so much better at home, the mission is clear: win one more and get that sweet Birmingham Bowl money. They face a Sophie’s choice of Clemson or Tennessee to get that win.
For the Vols, the mission is equally clear, but a lot more urgent — all of Baldy’s seniors and super seniors are gone in 6 weeks — style points matter against Sakerlina and Vandy; leave no doubt.
Guess which one of those is far more likely, especially against the second-worst secondary in the SEC?
Vols. Big. -30.14
Underdog With Bite
OSU -27.5 at Maryland
When do we get to talk about the Buckeyes’ noxious defense? They’ll score plenty on the Terps, though likely not as much as people expect. Home ‘Lia is a different critter, just as road Buckeye is a different one as well. The Buckeyes could very much could have their eyes on next week’s UM game too, which is only human.
This is all predicated on UMD platooning their lethal backs and ‘Lia hanging on to the ball against an opportunistic OSU secondary. It won’t happen enough for a win; the UMD defense is still too shaky. But a cover? Perhaps.
Take the Terps as home ‘dogs, even if they ass-back their way into a late cover.
Maryland +22.07, something like 48-24 would not be surprising.
Marginal Number We Like Anyway
Texas State -6 vs. Ark. State
Kind of a marginal one here, but I think I like it. ASU’s defense is still a mess, TSU is quite good at home, their passing game is hella’ dangerous, and the Fightin’ Life Champions are 1-3 OTR ATS in games with narrow spreads. This game is also likely to save Jake Spavital’s job. They’ve sprung some upsets, and shown signs of life. But they have to consistently beat those teams in their weight class. This is one such team. Texas State is about 14 total points away from being 7-3 as opposed to 3-7. You can’t really say the same about Arkansas State, although the incremental improvement is there.
Take the Bobcats. TSU -7.82
Ginormous Spread Worth Your While
This is the best of a bad lot this week, since Colorado decided to not cooperate.
Mizzou -29 vs NMSU
Bit marginal, because once the lines get so large, the MOE increases as well. But in general: Mizzou from 28.8 to 37.2, composite of Mizzou by about 34. That sounds right. NMSU likely won’t score, and Mizzou’s offense is gross.
Mizzou needs to sweep Arkansas and NSMU to be bowl eligible. Their defense can probably make that happen. Sigh. This defense deserves far better than that offense. #FreeLutherBurden.
Take the weirdly Midwestern team who nevertheless started the Civil War. Something like 34-3, 33-0.
One We Love:
UTSA -13 at Rice
Remember that whole “Rice is awful against passing teams” thing we’ve hit on before? Here’s another one.
UGA -22.5 at Kentucky
Levis vs. literally any competent defense is a mismatch in favor of the defense. If that weren’t enough, the UK OL is a hot mess. The running game is in the toilet. And Vandy showed how you exploit those corners last week: quick hitters and YAC — that happens to be UGA’s best passing attack. Bowers is gonna go nuts.
The other simple fact is that, as comprised, Stoops’ teams have not matched up well with Georgia. Not even his best teams against some of Kirby’s weaker ones. This is not one of Kirby’s weaker teams; and this certainly is not one of Stoops’ better ones.
Evil Kirby has been running it up late to ensure sweet spread covering. That keeps the boosters happy...and it keeps me happy.
Who runs it up more this week against their hapless SEC East opponent?
This poll is closed
About the same
Want some more of these? I crank the data every week, for every single game over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.