Sorry this is soooo late, but I’ve had no end of technical problems this week. My server has been sluggish and going down, and I’m trying to fix it remotely — for days...over Thanksgiving.
Anyway, still plenty of time to hop in on some action before the week starts.
As always, we shall endeavor to give you a handy half-dozen games: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.
And, because it’s the season of giving, I’ll throw in some lagniappe — a marginal spread that looks to be pretty good nonetheless.
Our thanks to DraftKings for sponsoring Roll ‘Bama Roll again. For more degenerate gambling, fantasy, and sportsbook posts, you can check all of those out at the SBNation DraftKings Supergroup hub. And for current odds, check those out here.
Not With A 10’ Pole And Stolen Money
LSU -9.5 at TAMU
It’s up to you whether you think LSU is going to be focused on a bad Aggie team on the road, where the Tigers have had issues, and whether Jimbo has lost these guys entirely.
If you’re feeling brave, data like Aggie’s power running game and defense at home though, at least for a cover.
For my part, I’m staying well off of this trash. The most Brian Kelly thing on earth wuld be to lose this game. And, if you’re an Alabama fan rooting for the backdoor, you probably want that to happen too.
Alabama -22 vs Auburn:
Tide can end on a high note against this one-dimensional team...if its alleged leaders give a shit about a dark horse playoff bid that is very much alive. Problem is, I don’t know if they actually do: they’ve played one good game in the last five weeks.
With this team, “should” is rarely “will”
Alabama -22.94 to -25.04
One We Like:
Troy -13.5 at Ark. State:
Red Wolves are a quiet 7-4 ATS. But they’re 0-3 ATS and S/U against the top defenses in the SBC. This looks to be 0-fer 4.
Underdog With Bite
Iowa State +9.5 at TCU
The ‘Clones are 23 points from being 10-1, and only OU has beaten them by DD (in a game where ISU had five TOs). This is the most dangerous damned team in the country today.
I think they’ll get the cover, and I’d not be remotely surprised if they spring an upset either. If ISU can hang on to the ball, they will. They’re not a good chalk team, but they are 2-1-1 ATS as an underdog.
Marginal Number We Like Anyway
USCe +14.5 at Clemson
Sakerlina loses, but covers. This team loves playing for Shane Beamer, and ole’ Butthole Eyes looked really good last week. Trouble is, USC’s secondary is so bad as to make Clemson’s QBing look competent too.
Another “quality” win for Clemson, against another Music City Bowl-type team...and another game they look like crap against soup cans and the underdog covers.
USC +12.23 to +13.68
Ginormous Spread Worth Your While
One We Love:
KU +11.5 at Kansas State
The Jayhawks just don’t have the defense to compete in this one. With KU bowl-eligible and Leipold returning, this is a chance for KU to play for next year, without much pressure. K State is playing for a chance to smack around TCYU.
This is the largest spread / expectancy value of the week...and I’m not sure why.
EMAW yuge -18.953 to 20.23
Ohio State -7.5 vs. Michigan
Very different teams here, home and away. The Buckeyes passing game will be the first decent one UM has seen in about six weeks — in a narrow win over Maryland at home. OSU is a far superior offense, with a defense that is marginally better, but outstanding at forcing turnovers. Throw in a one-dimensional UM offense (and no, McCarthy is not the answer back there), with a lot of vengeance on the brain and a win all-but assuring a CFP bid, and it’s too much. Stroud also locks up the Heisman.
It’s marginal but I think I like it. OSU -9.17
Edit: Corum is likely out too. I’m mortgaging both testicles on the Buckeyes.
Who ya’ got straight up?
This poll is closed
Want some more of these? I crank the data every week, for every single game over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.