With the season almost over, I’m winding down the year with something a bit different. Every day, though season’s end, I’m going to give you the best analytical play for that day’s bowl games.
And today, our winner is...
Liberty Bowl (Memphis), Arkansas -2.5 vs. Kansas
A few quick points:
- First: Arkansas’s two best upperclassmen, Drew Sanders (EDGE) and Ricky Stromberg (C), are sitting this one out.
- Another, Bumper Pool, had an end of year injury.
- Second, Native Son has gone to UNLV, leaving the defensive staff in a bind.
- Third, do they even want to be in the Liberty Bowl...with no water and rolling blackouts...after the season ended on such a sour note...and with Sam Pittman getting pushback after an underachieving year?
Now, Kansas does want to be here. They’re jazzed about a weekend on Beale...or any bowl, TBH. And with Leipold returning, things are looking up. But do the Jayhawks have the horses to keep up here? Defensively, no. Though, as they showed against TCU, they can be troublesome at times, they’re still a work in progress. And KJJ running free in the second-level is simply not something they’ve seen. When they have faced such teams dedicated to winning the ground game, they’ve been smoked. 400+ to Texas; 300+ to OU, KSU, Baylor, etc.
I’m not sure KU will get smoked here, but he who wins the ground wins the game. That is all-but certainly going to be Arkansas (bad defense or not). At just a field goal, and a short four-hour drive away from home, this sets up nicely for the Hogs...And god help Sam Pittman if he loses a bowl game to a .500 B12 squad that is historically one of the worst in the country.
Too much offensive line; too much running game.
Arkansas -4.67 to -6.92
Who ya’ got?
This poll is closed
Want some more of these? I crank the data every week, for every single game over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.