Giving Away Money: 2022 College Football Player Props, Odds, and Analysis

From SportsBetting.AG, we have the latest player props and odds for the 2022 season. And, as usual, I’m here to tell you how to fatten that bank account. Bet your head, not your heart. Let’s dive in.

Most Passing TDs

Bryce Young +200

C.J. Stroud +225

Will Rogers +300

Caleb Williams +350

Brennan Armstrong +450

As with last month’s Heisman analysis, we’re going to lean into the Buckeye on most of the quarterback props (not all) of the QB stats. Buckeyes have fared better than ‘Bammers in this category historically over a season and on a per-game basis. Only twice in the the great recent run of Alabama QBs has a UA QB even finished in the Top 5 of passing touchdowns. It’s still a balanced offense at the end of the day, and Saban loves to touchdown vulture with the backs.
Stroud is the smarter money

Most Passing Yards

Bryce Young +210

CJ Stroud +225

Will Rogers +275

Brennan Armstrong +300

Caleb Williams +550

All eyes are going to be on Stroud and Bryce, both of whom figure to exceed 4200 yards or so. But the real favorite ought to be Mississippi State’s Will Rogers. ‘State returns a veteran offense, including Rogers, and Leach has no inclination to run the ball. Rogers was just 60 yards behind Bryce last year, in two fewer starts, and had more than Stroud. He’ll get about 675 attempts or so, and barring some miracle in Western Kentucky, is poised to lead the nation. At the least, he’s the smartest pick on this board, especially at a degenerate-friendly +275.
Will Rogers is our pick.

Most Interceptions

Caleb Williams +120

Bryce Young +160

CJ Stroud +175

Caleb Williams is the “favorite” here for a reason. He’s a marginal 63% passer, even in those dinky two-man routes that Lincoln Riley loves. And even against the Big 12. The P12 doesn’t have many NFL quality players in the main, but they do have good individual talent in the secondary (and on the defensive line). In fact, DB may be the most consistent position of pro-level talent in the Pac 12; even on bad secondaries, there’s a usually a corner who’s going to get drafted. There is a significant step up in quality from the B12 talent pool. His data also shows this weird statistical anomaly of being less accurate and throwing ducks after halftime, and getting less accurate and TO-prone with each quarter. And he was a 50-50 guy in games where OU was losing or tied late. That speaks to a player who runs early scripts well, but can’t make adjustments as well and doesn’t handle pressure as well. True, he was a freshman, but for all intents and purposes, so were Stroud and Young.
Caleb Williams with a full season edges out the others.

Most Receiving TDs

Jaxon Smith Njigba -120

Jordan Addison -120

The Buckeyes have three potential First-Round WRs and one of the nation’s best RBs; Jaxon got the bulk of his TDs in three games last year and disappeared for vast stretches. He’s also a slot receiver that could be out of position if moved to the outside. He’ll feast, no doubt against the soft LBs and slow safeties in the B1G, but nowhere near to the extent of a guy like Addison who is the unquestioned WR1 and will get a billion screens tossed his way.
Addison, and very probably a Biletnikoff finalist again. If Riley can do anything, it’s feed WR1.

Most Rushing TDs

TreVeyon Henderson +140

Bijan Robinson +300

Deuce Vaughn +300

Sean Tucker +350

Jahmyr Gibbs +500

Tank Bigsby +900

Mickey Welsh-USA TODAY Sports

Talk about a real sucker bet. The OSU passing game figures to be up there with Alabama 2020 and LSU 2019 this season. Only once in the past half decade-plus has a Buckeye even gone over 20 TDs or been in the Top 10 of rushing scores. Alabama has led this category three times in eight seasons. Sean Tucker and Deuce Vaughn are beasts, but ‘Cuse and K State won’t get into the endzone enough to win this one. Bijan is intriguing. He’s up there with Vaughn, Gibbs, and Henderson as probably the best backs in the country. But Sark loves to throw near the goal line. And even last year, when BR was at 1500 yards, he only punched it in 14 times.

Let’s go with a sleeper here: Tank Bigsby. Potato Gus loves power running, and with nothing to really speak of in the passing game, Tank is apt to be option A, B, and C at the Goal Line behind a veteran OL. Gibbs may be the smarter money overall; Alabama’s offense is going to be amazingly lethal, but you can make a very good argument for Bigsby too.
Gibbs (smarter call, given how much Saban loves to poach TDs away from the passing game), Bigsby (out of desperate necessity). Throw $20 on both of them. One will take this crown.
If you must bet outside of the Yellowhammer State, then Deuce is your call.

Most Rushing Yards

Sean Tucker +100

Deuce Vaughn +300

TreVeyon Henderson +400

Bijan Robinson +450

Tank Bigsby +550

Jahmyr Gibbs +750

The favorites are favorites for a reason: Both Vaughn and Tucker averaged over 6 YPC last season; they’re both young; they’re both playing in run-first schemes; and they’re both in Meh conferences.

One difference is that K State returns four starters on the line, Syracuse just two and a half. Another difference is that the ACC has very good defensive linemen, and the B12 does not. Still another difference is that the best defenses in the B12 were decimated this offseason: Baylor, ISU, and Okie State don’t figure to be nearly as strong up front. Meanwhile, the ACC’s best defenses didn’t go anywhere. The final difference is that K State is already starting a push for Vaughn’s Heisman — they finally realize what they have, and they’re gonna run the damned legs off that kid (God, I love Chris Klieman so much).
Slight odds upset: Deuce Vaughn.