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Graphing the SEC, 2023 Week 8

In a week with fewer games, Mizzou was respectable in both tables

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South Carolina v Missouri Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

For data definitions and disclaimers, take a look at my rundown in the first article in this series: Graphing the SEC, 2023 Week 1

SEC Week 8 Success Rates

Rank Game Result SR -- Opp SR ---
Rank Game Result SR -- Opp SR ---
1 LSU vs. Army W 62-0 69% |||||||||||||| 38% ||||||||
2 Oklahoma vs. UCF W 31-29 51% |||||||||| 31% ||||||
3 Missouri vs. South Carolina W 34-12 48% |||||||||| 34% ||||||
4 Texas @ Houston W 31-24 46% |||||||||| 38% ||||||||
5 Ole Miss @ Auburn W 28-21 43% |||||||| 30% ||||||
6 Alabama vs. Tennessee W 34-20 40% |||||||| 38% ||||||||
7 Tennessee @ Alabama L 20-34 38% |||||||| 40% ||||||||
8 South Carolina @ Missouri L 12-34 34% |||||| 48% ||||||||||
9 Miss State @ Arkansas W 7-3 33% |||||| 31% ||||||
10 Arkansas vs. Miss State L 3-7 31% |||||| 33% ||||||
11 Auburn vs. Ole Miss L 21-28 30% |||||| 43% ||||||||

Mizzou gets the image nod this week for having respectable (top 3-4) standings in both the efficiency (SR) and explosiveness (isoPPP) tables. Others beat them out in individual categories, but I’m not in the mood to reward LSU for the recognition of demolishing what’s basically a cupcake Army team, nor Oklahoma for putting up a fine 51% SR while almost losing to P5 newcomer UCF.

In other SR news ...

  • Alabama and Tennessee were neck-and-neck in this metric, with both putting up slightly-below-average efficiencies (though, as we know, averaging out between outright good and bad performances over separate quarters of this game).
  • Auburn had a godawful 30% SR in a loss to Ole Miss, which was actually crazy given that they only lost by a TD (the Tigers were at home, after all, so likely some weirdness). You’ll see Auburn high in the isoPPP table ... but just know that this brute inefficiency was why.
  • Miss State and Arkansas were both terrible against eachother. The 7-3 scoreboard already told us that.
  • Texas had another near loss against another P5 newcomer, Houston; but for what it’s worth, Texas was ~8% points more efficient, which is notable (aka, less likely to be a fluke).

SEC Week 8 Explosiveness (isoPPP)

Rank Game Result Explos. -- Opp Explos. ---
Rank Game Result Explos. -- Opp Explos. ---
1 Auburn vs. Ole Miss L 21-28 1.59 ||||||||||| 1.22 |||||||||
2 LSU vs. Army W 62-0 1.45 ||||||||||| 0.67 |||
3 Alabama vs. Tennessee W 34-20 1.37 ||||||||| 1.20 |||||||||
4 Missouri vs. South Carolina W 34-12 1.27 ||||||||| 0.96 |||||
5 Ole Miss @ Auburn W 28-21 1.22 ||||||||| 1.59 |||||||||||
6 Tennessee @ Alabama L 20-34 1.20 ||||||||| 1.37 |||||||||
7 Texas @ Houston W 31-24 1.04 ||||||| 1.69 |||||||||||||
8 South Carolina @ Missouri L 12-34 0.96 ||||| 1.27 |||||||||
9 Oklahoma vs. UCF W 31-29 0.94 ||||| 1.77 |||||||||||||
10 Arkansas vs. Miss State L 3-7 0.92 ||||| 0.87 |||||
11 Miss State @ Arkansas W 7-3 0.87 ||||| 0.92 |||||

Again, Mizzou wasn’t the most explosive team this week, but it’s impressive to put up a fairly respectable 1.27 isoPPP while also delivering an above-average efficiency, all against a conference foe (even if a ... not great one in South Carolina).

Otherwise ...

  • Auburn was “explosive” in the sense that none of their plays worked — they were very inefficient, as is shown in the SR table above — but from the small set that did work, a few were explosive. (This is the SR/isoPPP inversion I’ve noted here before)
  • LSU was also explosive. Against a really bad team. (Faux deux bye week)
  • In general, SEC teams weren’t particularly explosive this week, with four teams landing isoPPP’s lower than 1.0 (wow!) and a fifth (Texas) almost accomplishing the same dubious honor. What happened to our SEC QB’s, y’all?
  • Miss State and Arkansas were also the bottom two teams in this table. I am so glad I caught zero of this game, it sounds like it was awful.

The tables were short this week — we’re in the “bye week” part of the season — but drop a comment if you see anything else interesting. Roll Tide!

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