Week Five: 3-3
Nevada still stinks, for sure. But the offense has improved, and the defense is trying to get to merely sucking. An impotent Aztec offense is just the confidence booster it needed.
So, there’s no reason to mistrust the data on this one.
Final score: Nevada 6, San Diego State 0
What on Earth
Penix is gonna’ pad those Heisman stats, and the Huskies light it ‘up for playoff positioning
Penix turned it over three times, and only the P12 officiating crew saved the Huskies from a playoff-killing home loss to the Sun Devils.
Last week was terrible all around for favorites bettors though. Vegas ‘dogs won 64% of the time, with home teams especially faring better than expected. Let’s hope the sweet release of math frees us from a meh week.
Welcome to Week Nine of 2023’s Giving Away Money.
We use data-based algorithmic predictions for all of our picks, combined with deep knowledge, and some good ole’ fashioned eyeballs.
For a third year, we extend our thanks to DraftKings for sponsoring Roll ‘Bama Roll in this space. For more degenerate gambling, fantasy, and sportsbook posts, you can check all of those out at the SBNation DraftKings Supergroup hub.
For current odds, check those out here.
Half a dozen games to go through today, and you know the drill: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.
Vegas has your money; let’s go get it.
Not with a 10’ Pole and Stolen Money:
ULL +10.5 at USA
The numbers like USA (-13.48). But I put this here for a good reason. The Cajuns don’t lose blowouts. The only teams to beat this season by double digits was FSU (by a lot) and at Minnesota...with a late score (by 11). In all other cases, they’ve been hella’ competitive — at or under a TD. Sometimes you trust trends more than data. This is such a case. Beware this game, no matter what the numbers say. USA’s secondary is suspect; that’s how to beat them. But does ULL have the passing game to do that? Press X to doubt. For my money, there are far better games this week.
Though, if you must take one, the data like the Jags
One We Like:
UCLA -17 vs. Colorado
Once more, with feeling, as a physical team bulldozes these clowns. Colorado leads the nation in missed tackles, is second-worst in rush efficiency defense, allows over 6 YPC in conference games, and gets stuffed a ton at the LOS against real teams. The Bruins do all of those things very well, and UCLA may be the hardest-hitting squad the Buffs face all season. Did we mention the 4 sacks per game in P12 play that UCLA averages? The Top 20 defense in forcing turnovers?
Call it three touchdowns on the nose
One We Love:
Vawls -3.5 at UK
How hungover will UT be, on the road in a place where Stoops has played well? At some point you have to trust the math, a better UT defense vs. a woeful Devin Leary, and a ghastly UK front that got obliterated on the ground by the Gators. The Vols are a far better running team than that, too. I trust my money with them. Perhaps foolishly. UT is a far superior analytical team for a reason. If the Volunteers can avoid shooting themsevlves in the foot, they can get this one. The SEC was kind of cruel to stick UT with back-to-back road rivalries...and you love to see it.
Ten Are C by a touchdown
An Underdog With Bite:
Wash -26.5 at Stanford
The Tree is terrible, no one is contesting that. But have you seen the Huskies secondary? Woof. It’s a war crime, and their rushing “attack” is even worst. All of Stanford’s losses have been occasioned by a lot of turnovers and very good ground games.Neither really apply to UW here. They’ll win, and maybe pretty handily, but by four scores? On the road? Oh, you suspect they’ll give up plenty of points along the way. Something like 45-28 wouldn’t be a big shock, right?
Ginormous Spread Worth Your Time:
PSU -31.5 vs. Indiana:
Pissed off Penn State back at home off a gross loss? With Evil James Franklin running it up late to cover? A left for dead Hoosiers team that already can’t score? The nation’s best team in TOM vs. one in the Bottom 20? A Top 20 ground game vs. a Bottom 20 rushing defense? This may be a shutout. Something 48-0, 45-3 is going to shock no one. Love this game for such a huge spread.
K State -17 vs. Houston:
As well as KSU plays at home, with the nation’s No. 2 rush efficiency offense vs. the No. 112 ground D? Houston has been very good at forcing INTs...but the Wildcats don’t win that way. They legit roll six backs at you. And that’s also bad news for an undersized front four that has been bullying by concerted rushing attacks of TCU and Texas Tech. Throw in those sloppy 9 penalties per game and a curb-stomping is shaping up nicely here.
My love for Chris Klieman grows by the week.
Jalen Milroe YOLO ball?
This poll is closed
F’ Yeah! Do it until they stop it!
"Only three things happen when you throw the ball, and two of ‘em is bad." -Paul W. Bryant
Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.
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