Week Five: 2-4
I’m not taking a victory lap for shit from last week. LOL. I went .500 on the week overall, but the games chosen for RBR were miserable: 2-4 is by far the worst record we’ve posted in 4-5 years.
What on Earth
Basically all of them. There was a lot of bad defense by a lot of decent teams that nearly got them bit by truly terrible underdogs.
So, we’ll give you a little bonus to make up for that woeful showing. Here’s the skinny on the Tide/Wildcats today
Alabama -11 at Kentucky
The TL/DR is that UK is winless ATS as a dog, Alabama has been very good against the number, especially the last month, and Devin Leary vs. this secondary is laughable mismatch (it’s almost like the ACC is easier to play in!). And good luck trying to stop Milroe, who will likely reprise his performance vs. UT and LSU — the UK interior is awful, but it’s really the only way their defense can keep the Tide from going over the top and targeting those terrible DBs.
Welcome to Week Eleven of 2023’s Giving Away Money.
We use data-based algorithmic predictions for all of our picks, combined with deep knowledge, and some good ole’ fashioned eyeballs.
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Half a dozen games to go through today, and you know the drill: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.
Vegas has your money; let’s go get it.
Not with a 10’ Pole and Stolen Money:
Maryland -2.5 at Nebraska
In a week of foolish bets, this one is five-star idiocy. Do you take the supremely talented Terps, who inexplicably crumble every October in new and creative ways? Seriously, for a second straight year, the Terps were sitting at 5-1 on the season then imploded. Or do you take the untalented home Huskers...who are somehow 5-4 despite leading the Big 10 in turnovers? Rock fight vs. rockers. There are no winners here. But you suspect it will be they who turns it over least. And that could literally be anyone.
You’ve been warned.
One We Like:
Washington -9 vs. Utah
The trick to beating the Huskies is to control the lines, tackle in space and pummel them on the ground — all of which, Utah are excellent at. Oregon has to be kicking themselves losing to this one-dimensional team. The Huskies have played every quality team they’ve faced within 10 points, and that’s assuming you consider USC a quality team. The Utes are going to be as good as they are healthy and can control the lines of scrimmage. If U Dub is shot out of a cannon early though, it could be a long day. But we play the odds and the data, and the Utes are a decent play here — that, and their superior ability to force turnovers really militate in favor of the Utes.
An outright upset is not off the table.
One We Love:
UNLV -5.5 vs Wyoming
The Pokes are in a rut after beating Fresno State. They haven’t played well in a month, and that’s mainly on the offense. It’s also a Jekyll/Hyde team that always plays better in Laramie. Their physicality often disappears once they get on the Greyhound. Meanwhile, Barry Odom has something cooking in Vegas. UNLV is 3rd in the country in turnover margin, and is first in the MWC in explosive plays. They’re winning with offense and defense, explosive plays and driving the field. And they’re at home. That’s a good combo.
Underdog With Bite
Texas State -2.5 at Coastal Carolina
Right off the jump, the wrong team is favored. Texas State are analytics darlings, and they’re certainly a lot better than at any point under Spavital. But you need to dig a bit deeper. The defense is still awful, they turn it over a ton, and a lot of that scoring is being done late, when the game is already out of hand. They’re great at backdoor covers, less great being the favorite. Coastal can still punish you defensively, still has a great balanced offense, and they force a lot of turnovers.
By all accounts, this spread should be reversed.
Ginormous Spread Worth Your Time
Ohio State -31 vs. Michigan State
We finally have a true ginormous spread this late in the season. And it’s a conference game to boot. What makes this one so great? Sparty’s road play. Against every team not named Iowa, they’ve been woeful. I mean, that adjective holds true for MSU in general, but they’ve been particularly assy on the road, losing by an average of 26. OSU’s defense has gotten a lot better this year, mainly by locking down and punishing bad teams. We have no idea of how well it will hold up against an elite team, but it’s more than enough to dominate the miserable Spartans — who are giving up 31 PPG to some very bad teams.
Ohio State is not a very bad team.
Not as stupid as it looks for such a huge spread.
Florida State -14 vs. Miami
This is the closest thing to a mortal lock you’ll find this week. Norvell has as much darkness in his heart as sugar booger in his nose. I love that dude so much — he’s on my very short list of serious candidates when Saban ascends to heaven and becomes one with all Football Dharma. I’d be stunned if FSU doesn’t double this one up. They’re going for the jugular and have the team to do it. Second-half home FSU is the scariest team in the country not named Second-half home Alabama.
This poll is closed
Nope. Definition of a trap game. They’ll win, but it won’t be easy.
Nope. Stunner in the Bluegrass! UK upsets the Tide in a sluggish morning game.
Yep, Tide covers. This is a business trip, and they’re about their business these days.
Push, because something like 31-20 is just dumb enough to happen.
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