Week 11: 5-1
We occasionally have a bad week. But it’s singular. Bad week. It’s almost never two in a row...because math don’t lie.
The TL/DR is that UK is winless ATS as a dog, Alabama has been very good against the number, especially the last month, and Devin Leary vs. this secondary is laughable mismatch
2023 is the best ‘Bama has been against the number since 2020, which is ironic given that it’s been the weakest team too.
Maryland vs. UNL: Rock fight vs. rockers. There are no winners here. But you suspect it will be they who turns it over least. And that could literally be anyone.
It was Nebraska who blew a late lead with their sixth turnover of the day.
What on Earth
Second-half home FSU is the scariest team in the country not named Second-half home Alabama.
Second half FSU damn near lost that game. Literally the only team that did not cover GAM last week was the one that seemed most assured. Miami didn’t turn the ball over, matched FSU score for score, and hung with the ‘Noles to the last. Impressive by the Canes, worrisome if you’re an FSU fan.
Welcome to Week Twelve of 2023’s Giving Away Money.
We use data-based algorithmic predictions for all of our picks, combined with deep knowledge, and some good ole’ fashioned eyeballs.
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Half a dozen games to go through today, and you know the drill: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.
Vegas has your money; let’s go get it.
Not with a 10’ Pole and Stolen Money:
Notre Dame -24.5 vs Wake
The Domers have been plastering the bad teams on their schedule, which is, I suppose, an improvement over last year. I hate this hook though, which takes it out of decent bet territory right into the MOE. And though Wake is a bad team record-wise, it’s not necessarily a bad team. Its problem is lack of competent QB who won’t turn the ball over. Their margin of error was already nil before ND poached their best player, and yes, Sam Hartman is likely to be motivated here. But only once has Wake lost by this much, to FSU, and Notre Dame probably isn’t in that class, even at home.
REALLY hate this hook.
One We Like:
Coastal Carolina -4.5 at Army
I heard you like running games, so we put some option into your triple option [insert xzibit meme here]. This game could last about 2:15 with the new clock rules. More relevantly, the Chanties are riding a 5-1 stretch ATS, still force a ton of turnovers, and are 8-2 on the season vs. the number, despite being just about .500 IRL. They’ve been good value this year. While Army has been...Army. A very down year for a team that ought not be nearly this bad.
By no means a runaway. Just about a tuddie.
One We Love:
JMU -9 vs. App. State
God help the App State Mountaineers. Odds were already against them. These two are bitter archrivals, and the Dukes have owned the ‘Eers of late. So, if JMU can run this one up at home, they will. But now JMU have extra incentive to do so. Inexplicably, their waiver to play in the SBC Title was shot down by the NCAA. That means that James Madison is proving a point with every game they play... and that an awful SBC team three games behind them will play for the SBCCG. To throw a kick to the nads, owing to NCAA accession rules, the Dukes aren’t even eligible for a bowl unless and until 82 other teams cannot be found first. What a mess. What a pissed off JMU team. Did we mention College Game day is there?
And it could get a lot, lot worse.
Underdog With Bite
Nevada +11.5 at CSU
Way, way too many against a spunky Wolfpack team who’s played a ton better this year, especially on defense. They also take care of the ball a bit better, which probably helps on the road. I’ve liked Nevada as a dog most of the year (UNLV was a notable exception), and particularly against against bad teams. And, with CSU sitting at 1-4 at home ATS, that’s making this one look even better than the numbers did.
Nevada loses by two scores, but has a 68.6% chance of a cover
Ginormous Spread Worth Your Time
Ole Miss -37.5 vs. ULM
QUICK, LANE! Show us some dog pics on the ‘Gram and blow out an awful Sun Belt team so we can forget that f’n shameful no-show in Athens! For the first time in forever, ULM hasn’t been a paycheck game for multiple teams, but results against that sort of squad have not been encouraging either: -48 vs. So. Alabama, and -38 vs. Troy. I suspect Ole Miss gets this one in an absolute bloodbath. Biggest question mark here is how distracted Lane is going to be with the lawsuit and latest coaching rumors du jour.
The math likes the Rebels, even if reality may not
Ole Miss 38.17
But, if you’re gun-shy because of those exigencies, take the Buckeyes -27.5 vs. Minnesota. They’d have to work to not cover that spread. OSU -31.12
Jax State -8.5 vs. La. Tech
Maybe one of the better games on the board (at least on paper). This is the home finale for JSU. They are ineligible for a bowl (unless there are 82 bowl teams) and, like JMU, incapable of playing for a conference title. They play conference leader NSMU on the road next week for the de facto crown...but they have to win this one first. They’re going to play their balls off for the home crowd on Senior Night in a tribute to a great first year in D1. La. Tech has one of the nation’s worst turnover margins, and rushing defenses. Guess how well that’s gonna’ work out for them?
FFS, La. Tech got bullied by Sam Houston State, imagine what Rich Rod is going to do to this candy ass team?
Should Alabama continue playing FCS games the week before the Iron Bowl?
This poll is closed
Sure, as is. I mean have you seen the schedules for the undefeateds?
Sure, but only early in the season. This de facto bye week certainly violates the spirit of the rules
Sure, but only as a true exhibition, without stats or records.
No, it’s shameful for a powerhouse to pay for a win, it’s bad value for ticketholders, it’s bad football, it’s bad television.
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