Giving Away Money: 2023 Week 10 Picks Against the Spread To Enhance Your Filthy Lucre

Special Programming Note: I will have a standalone LSU-Alabama piece for you guys tomorrow or later today. Currently, the spread is Alabama -3, and there is a lot to discuss.

Week Five: 3-2
Season: 29-20-2

Told Ya’

They legit roll six backs at you. And that’s also bad news for an undersized front four that has been bullying by concerted rushing attacks of TCU and Texas Tech. Throw in those sloppy 9 penalties per game and a curb-stomping is shaping up nicely here.

Final score: Kansas State 41 Houston 0

What on Earth

Did we mention the 4 sacks per game in P12 play that UCLA averages? The Top 20 defense in forcing turnovers?

I swear to god, UCLA was point-shaving. This team had a lot of fishy turnovers, and finished -4 on the day. It was weird too; the Bruins had drives where they just sort of turned on the switch and easily scored when they wanted to...but stayed jusssst outside of covering range, usually because of “execution error.” Fishiest game I’ve seen this year. And, given that CU is drawing the most action of any team from Vegas, you can’t discount that possibility either. There is a lot on the line each week with the Buffs...and thus there a lot to be made from a running back who hypothetically wants to pitch the ball on the ground on goal-to-go...which happened...twice.

But, on the whole, across 50-55 games, it was a good week. Finished up just over 18%. Onward and upward, my friends.

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Welcome to Week Ten of 2023’s Giving Away Money.

We use data-based algorithmic predictions for all of our picks, combined with deep knowledge, and some good ole’ fashioned eyeballs.

For a third year, we extend our thanks to DraftKings for sponsoring Roll ‘Bama Roll in this space. For more degenerate gambling, fantasy, and sportsbook posts, you can check all of those out at the SBNation DraftKings Supergroup hub.

For current odds, check those out here.

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Half a dozen games to go through today, and you know the drill: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.

Vegas has your money; let’s go get it.

Not with a 10’ Pole and Stolen Money:

TTU -3 vs. TCU

Frogs haven’t been competitive OTR, BUT in the last two games the Raiders are -8 in turnover margin. It’s already a sloppy team, but this team has really been all over the place. A lot of it has to do with Tech losing another quarterback. Behren is allegedly back this week, and it’s a home night game. If he can stay upright, the Red Raiders have a good shot here: -5.98. If he’s out, the data change dramatically: TCU -2.03. An 8-point swing. So....pick your poison, I guess? He’ll start, stay in all game OR TTU becomes a turnover machine again with yet another backup. Fortunately, this Frogs secondary is absolutely awful and nowhere near the force of someone like WVU or BYU or K State.

But, because of injuries and inability to complete a game, this is too uncertain to justify your money; the analytic swing is just wild. You can’t even get a lean or project forward; that’s how much a QB means to an air raid team.

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One We Like:

Tulane -16.5 at ECU

We’ve been very critical of Tulane as a team and a gambling prospect this year. It’s a legit Top 25 club, with a defense that plays great...for about three quarters. Then the Green Wave have this trick of letting their foot off the gas late and allowing even bad teams to score oodles. Probably no chance of that this week: The Pirates offense is terrible. Carolina’s offense is THAT bad. And, against winning teams, they’ve never gone above 21 points. They also are a terrible 2-6 ATS.

Tulane by three scores
-22.07

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One We Love:

Rice +12 vs. SMU

Home Rice is a lot like Home NC State: just a bear of a team to get a cover against. Their passing attack makes that easier too, as does the fact that they always play their hearts out. But at the end of the day, the defense is still undersized and they can be thrown on...and they simply don’t have the talent. It’s a tiny nerd school of about 3000 people, surrounded by big boys poaching every ounce of talent out of the Houston area. Meanwhile, SMU rolls out about half a dozen 6’3” receivers, plays big physical zone splits on the line, and should be able to outgun the Owls even if the passing game is slowed down. It’s more than a passing team: It’s a balanced team with Lashlee/Dykes’ best defense to date (really, this is a continuity project).

SMU is quietly a Top 25 team, y’all.
Mustangs -16.15

An Underdog With Bite:

Jax State +16 at Sakerlina — Anyone else think that with a few breaks, Jax State could swing the upset? Yeah, me too. As sloppy as the Gamecocks are, and as porous as their defense, JSU’s speed and tempo can cause issues...as can their powerful running game. On defense, it’s just a first-year FBS team, but they are among the nation’s leaders in takeaways for a reason — that probably bodes poorly for Rattler, who gives it away like a prom date.

With some breaks, the ‘Cocks can win this. Even without it, they should still cover.
Fightin’ Rich Rods it is
Jax +7.87

Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

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Ginormous Spread Worth Your Time:

There aren’t many double-digit spreads this week, and outside of two underdogs, there are none we’re betting. So, this is the closest you get:

Memphis -13.5 vs. USF

The Tigers may be one of the shakiest 6-2 teams in the country. But they’ve unleashed hell on bad teams. This is a bad USF team. The only real mystery is if the Tigers will get up to a large enough lead before letting USF storm back with a few late scores. That is one of UM’s specialties. If you assume it won’t happen, then take Memphis at home.

Tigers by two touchdowns
-15.66

EDIT: BONUS

La. Tech +16.5 at Liberty

Wanna’ make a side bet with me? Liberty rushes for over 400 yards and finishes +2 or better in TOM. Tech gives up over 5 YPC, close to 7 vs. teams with winning records. They’re -6 on the road in TOM. ..and they face one of the nation’s best defenses and running games. On the road. Flames it is.

Perhaps the best game of the big numbers.
Baptists -20.16

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Mortal Lock

ND -3 at Clemson

The only possible reason this game is set at -3 is because of a home Clemson team that is getting a lot more respect than it has earned. They’re not going to be able to overpower the Domers, and will have to throw to win. ND is T-4th in the country with 13 interceptions, while Clemson is a gross -2 in TOM. Dabo just seems really checked out this year, don’t he? While the numbers say Notre Dame -10.84, the Tigers do still have a ferocious defense. So I’d mentally plan on it being closer to a TD than two scores. But, again, no one knows where that offense is going to come from.

It will be close, but more a 7-10 point game than a FG game

Notre Dame -7.84

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Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Just five bucks a month. Far cheaper than a divorce attorney when your wife leaves you for being a bad gambler.