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For data definitions and disclaimers, take a look at my rundown in the first article in this series: Graphing the SEC, 2023 Week 1
SEC Week 12 Success Rates
| Rank | Game | Result | SR | -- | Opp SR | --- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Game | Result | SR | -- | Opp SR | --- |
| 1 | LSU vs. Georgia State | W 56-14 | 75% | |||||||||||||||| | 35% | |||||||| |
| 2 | Alabama vs. Chattanooga | W 66-10 | 57% | |||||||||||| | 28% | |||||| |
| 3 | Georgia @ Tennessee | W 38-10 | 50% | |||||||||| | 42% | |||||||| |
| 4 | Arkansas vs. Florida International | W 44-20 | 49% | |||||||||| | 30% | |||||| |
| 5 | Ole Miss vs. Louisiana Monroe | W 35-3 | 47% | |||||||||| | 30% | |||||| |
| 6 | Texas A&M vs. Abilene Christian | W 38-10 | 46% | |||||||||| | 28% | |||||| |
| 7 | Texas @ Iowa State | W 26-16 | 44% | |||||||| | 36% | |||||||| |
| 8 | Oklahoma @ BYU | W 31-24 | 44% | |||||||| | 45% | |||||||||| |
| 9 | Tennessee vs. Georgia | L 10-38 | 42% | |||||||| | 50% | |||||||||| |
| 10 | Florida @ Missouri | L 31-33 | 41% | |||||||| | 41% | |||||||| |
| 11 | Missouri vs. Florida | W 33-31 | 41% | |||||||| | 41% | |||||||| |
| 12 | South Carolina vs. Kentucky | W 17-14 | 40% | |||||||| | 39% | |||||||| |
| 13 | Kentucky @ South Carolina | L 14-17 | 39% | |||||||| | 40% | |||||||| |
| 14 | Auburn vs. New Mexico State | L 10-31 | 39% | |||||||| | 49% | |||||||||| |
| 15 | Miss State vs. Southern Mississippi | W 41-20 | 29% | |||||| | 27% | |||||| |
Look, it’s (mostly) cupcake week, so similar to Graphing the Tide this week, insights are spare and the commentary will be brief.
But there are a few tidbits from this efficiency table:
- The top of this list unsurprisingly includes SEC programs playing overmatched foes — Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, A&M — but Georgia of course posted one of the top efficiency numbers while facing one of the most (of the few) actual challenging teams on their schedule.
- Speaking of, I was really hoping Tennessee could muster up more of that Joe Milton magic against Georgia that we saw against the Tide, but it wasn’t to be. Either Georgia is rounding into their late-season form (after dodging bullets early), or Tennessee is mailing it in this season after getting crushed by Mizzou the week prior. (For what it’s worth, they did post an “average” SR but nothing special).
- Auburn lost to New Mexico State, which is so, so funny. Surprisingly, they posted a not-awful 39% SR in this bad loss, which is the opposite of what they were doing early in the season (like posting terrible SR’s against Cal in a close, ugly win).
SEC Week 12 Explosiveness (isoPPP)
| Rank | Game | Result | Explos. | -- | Opp Explos. | --- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Game | Result | Explos. | -- | Opp Explos. | --- |
| 1 | Florida @ Missouri | L 31-33 | 1.69 | ||||||||||||| | 1.48 | ||||||||||| |
| 2 | Miss State vs. Southern Mississippi | W 41-20 | 1.66 | ||||||||||||| | 1.44 | ||||||||||| |
| 3 | Ole Miss vs. Louisiana Monroe | W 35-3 | 1.63 | ||||||||||||| | 0.92 | ||||| |
| 4 | Alabama vs. Chattanooga | W 66-10 | 1.60 | ||||||||||||| | 1.23 | ||||||||| |
| 5 | Georgia @ Tennessee | W 38-10 | 1.51 | ||||||||||| | 1.28 | ||||||||| |
| 6 | Missouri vs. Florida | W 33-31 | 1.48 | ||||||||||| | 1.69 | ||||||||||||| |
| 7 | Texas A&M vs. Abilene Christian | W 38-10 | 1.32 | ||||||||| | 1.18 | ||||||| |
| 8 | Oklahoma @ BYU | W 31-24 | 1.30 | ||||||||| | 1.34 | ||||||||| |
| 9 | LSU vs. Georgia State | W 56-14 | 1.30 | ||||||||| | 1.60 | ||||||||||||| |
| 10 | Tennessee vs. Georgia | L 10-38 | 1.28 | ||||||||| | 1.51 | ||||||||||| |
| 11 | Arkansas vs. Florida International | W 44-20 | 1.25 | ||||||||| | 1.92 | ||||||||||||||| |
| 12 | Texas @ Iowa State | W 26-16 | 1.20 | ||||||||| | 1.55 | ||||||||||| |
| 13 | South Carolina vs. Kentucky | W 17-14 | 1.17 | ||||||| | 1.15 | ||||||| |
| 14 | Kentucky @ South Carolina | L 14-17 | 1.15 | ||||||| | 1.17 | ||||||| |
| 15 | Auburn vs. New Mexico State | L 10-31 | 1.07 | ||||||| | 1.24 | ||||||||| |
The explosiveness table is kinda funny!
- The top team was a loser, with Florida posting an SEC-high 1.69 isoPPP in a high-scoring loss to Mizzou. Some of this is probably a bit of “efficiency/explosiveness inversion” that we see signs of each week ... but their SR was 41% (about average), so it’s not entirely that. Florida was just explosive despite (or because) their starting QB went out in the game.
- There were some high isoPPPs this week — I’ve chided the SEC a few times this season for posting pretty low ones on average this season — but of the top six only three of them are actually “cupcake” games, while Florida, Georgia, and Mizzou managed explosive performances against SEC foes.
- We didn’t have any sub-1.0 numbers this week — we’d been seeing a few each week from the conference basement-dwellers — but Auburn got really close by posting a pretty putrid 1.07 isoPPP. Watch them magically come alive against the Tide next weekend, of course.
- Texas managed to stave off upset again — sigh — but didn’t look great doing it, with an average SR and a low-ish isoPPP. Please just lose one of these.
Roll Tide! Let me know if you see anything else interesting in the table.
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